Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI

The hosts open with travel complaints and jokes. Calacanis reads mock Trump announcements, such as Hunter Biden heading a Bureau of Founder Mode Procurement and Sacks as chief retribution officer. These are satire, not real appointments. Friedberg then promotes the All-In holiday event in three weeks, with DJs, chess challenges with Alex Botez and Draymond Green.

Calacanis says Bitcoin peaked at $92,000 about ten days after the Trump win, and that Affirm, Robinhood, PayPal and Coinbase are up 50% to double since early August. He recalls Trump's July Bitcoin conference promises: fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler, never sell the government's Bitcoin, and create a crypto advisory council. He adds that a president cannot technically fire the SEC chair.

the rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry

Friedberg attributes the rally to expected stimulus from lower taxes and deregulation, which especially helps crypto, finance and fintech, while tariffs and slow spending cuts could be inflationary. He notes the 10-year Treasury near 4.5% versus 3.5% when cuts began in September, 75 basis points of cuts since, and October inflation rising to 2.6% from 2.3%.

He also cites credit spreads at a 17-year low for junk bonds and a 26-year low for investment grade. He reads this either as strong risk appetite or as some investors doubting the risk-free status of Treasuries if spending is not controlled.

Chamath says he regrets selling Bitcoin, calling it a $3 or $4 billion mistake from a fund he managed. Asked why he thinks in dollars, he says that for now Bitcoin is a gold proxy and a largely dollar-denominated asset that trades correlated with risk assets.

view things as they really are versus how you wish them to be

He thinks purists may be right within his lifetime, but that managing it as a risk asset requires seeing present conditions. He expects the trade to turn only if inflation or deficits visibly break. He says a 10-year at 7 to 8% is plausible if deficits stay near 8% of GDP.