2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more

The hosts open with jokes about Friedberg's radiation suits for his family and dogs, a planned bunker and unwanted pickles. Friedberg replies that evolution moves in jumps, so preparation matters.

This is the moment. Be ready.

Each host then names 2024 winners and losers, starting with Sacks on politics.

Sacks argues Putin stabilized Russia's economy after sanctions and holds the military upper hand in Ukraine, and he predicts the stalemate narrative will be exposed as a lie. He says Putin's standing has risen in the global south and BRICS, and calls Argentina's refusal to join a one-off tied to Milei.

He says he wishes a peace deal had been made, argues the West cannot give Ukraine enough aid to win, and cites Fiona Hill's view that the global south uses Russia as a proxy against the West. These are his assessments, not established facts.

I'm not rooting for it to happen.

Friedberg picks an independent or third party, citing a poll showing over 60 percent interest and Ross Perot's 18 to 19 percent in 1992. Kennedy is running as an independent, though ballot access in many states is uncertain. Chamath wrote the same answer, and a later remark says Kennedy had just been added to the Utah ballot.

Jason picks a dark-horse candidate who beats both Trump and Biden; three of four hosts chose the same theme without coordinating.

Jason reviews 2023: Sacks's pick of Asian American applicants looked prescient after the Supreme Court ruling on affirmative action, and Chamath's long Haley, short DeSantis trade paid off.

Friedberg's Saudi pick rests on reports that Riyadh weighed accepting yuan for oil sold to China, and that Washington reportedly sought dollar pricing, no Chinese bases and limits on Chinese technology in return for protection and nuclear help. Sacks adds that Putin got a parade in the Gulf, which the transcript does not verify.