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Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps

第149期2023-10-13English会员内容
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精读 · 按主题梳理核心观点、论证与案例。

§01Why the hosts discuss a hard story

Jason opens with two caveats: the situation is changing quickly as they tape on Thursday, and the hosts are not experts on the topic. He says listeners still asked to hear them debate hard subjects and listen to each other, and he promises the usual format.

Chamath, who has worked in Israel and has friends there, says he stayed off social media to think more logically, looked for even-handed accounts on X to reconstruct what happened, and has no hot takes. Another host says he is stunned the attack was possible.

§02The September 11 analogy and the risk of overreaction

Sacks accepts the comparison with September 11 on two counts. The attack was a massacre of civilians, including, he says, 260 festival attendees, and the political reaction matters. He cites Nikki Haley telling Netanyahu to finish them and Lindsey Graham calling to level the place.

He fears the terrorists wanted an overreaction like the American one after 2001, which he says cost thousands of US soldiers, trillions of dollars and millions of lives on the other side, and left Iran stronger and the region unstable. As friends of Israel, he argues, US leaders should counsel a cool-headed response rather than war with Iran or leveling Gaza.

Another host suggests the attack may have aimed to derail the Abraham Accords. The speakers agree Israel has the right to destroy Hamas; the dispute is how. Sacks says Hamas can melt into Gaza's population, with tunnels and bunkers, so bombing would cause civilian casualties while ground forces would face guerrilla war, anti-tank weapons and IEDs. A level-the-place response, he warns, could set off a wider regional or world war.

好对话,值得读完整。

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