← Lex Fridman

Regina Barzilay: Deep Learning for Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment

第2019-09-23期2019-09-23English

嘉宾:Regina Barzilay

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§01Transcript · 00:00–09:57

00:00The following is a conversation with Regina Barzilay.

00:03She's a professor at MIT and a world class researcher

00:06in natural language processing

00:08and applications of deep learning to chemistry and oncology

00:12or the use of deep learning for early diagnosis,

00:15prevention and treatment of cancer.

00:18She has also been recognized for teaching

00:21of several successful AI related courses at MIT,

00:24including the popular Introduction

00:26to Machine Learning course.

00:28This is the Artificial Intelligence podcast.

00:32If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube,

00:34give it five stars on iTunes, support it on Patreon

00:37or simply connect with me on Twitter

00:39at Lex Friedman spelled F R I D M A N.

00:43And now here's my conversation with Regina Barzilay.

00:48In an interview you've mentioned

00:50that if there's one course you would take,

00:51it would be a literature course with a friend of yours

00:54that a friend of yours teaches.

00:56Just out of curiosity, because I couldn't find anything

00:59on it, are there books or ideas that had profound impact

01:04on your life journey, books and ideas perhaps

01:07outside of computer science and the technical fields?

01:11I think because I'm spending a lot of my time at MIT

01:14and previously in other institutions where I was a student,

01:18I have limited ability to interact with people.

01:21So a lot of what I know about the world

01:22actually comes from books.

01:24And there were quite a number of books

01:27that had profound impact on me and how I view the world.

01:31Let me just give you one example of such a book.

01:35I've maybe a year ago read a book

01:39called The Emperor of All Melodies.

01:42It's a book about, it's kind of a history of science book

01:45on how the treatments and drugs for cancer were developed.

01:50And that book, despite the fact that I am in the business

01:54of science, really opened my eyes on how imprecise

01:59and imperfect the discovery process is

02:03and how imperfect our current solutions

02:06and what makes science succeed and be implemented.

02:11And sometimes it's actually not the strengths of the idea,

02:14but devotion of the person who wants to see it implemented.

02:17So this is one of the books that, you know,

02:19at least for the last year, quite changed the way

02:22I'm thinking about scientific process

02:24just from the historical perspective

02:26and what do I need to do to make my ideas really implemented.

02:33Let me give you an example of a book

02:36which is not kind of, which is a fiction book.

02:40It's a book called Americana.

02:44And this is a book about a young female student

02:48who comes from Africa to study in the United States.

02:53And it describes her past, you know, within her studies

02:57and her life transformation that, you know,

03:02in a new country and kind of adaptation to a new culture.

03:06And when I read this book, I saw myself

03:11in many different points of it,

03:13but it also kind of gave me the lens on different events.

03:20And some of it that I never actually paid attention.

03:22One of the funny stories in this book

03:24is how she arrives to her new college

03:30and she starts speaking in English

03:32and she had this beautiful British accent

03:35because that's how she was educated in her country.

03:39This is not my case.

03:40And then she notices that the person who talks to her,

03:45you know, talks to her in a very funny way,

03:47in a very slow way.

03:48And she's thinking that this woman is disabled

03:51and she's also trying to kind of to accommodate her.

03:54And then after a while, when she finishes her discussion

03:56with this officer from her college,

03:59she sees how she interacts with the other students,

04:02with American students.

04:03And she discovers that actually she talked to her this way

04:08because she saw that she doesn't understand English.

04:11And I thought, wow, this is a funny experience.

04:14And literally within few weeks,

04:16I went to LA to a conference

04:20and I asked somebody in the airport,

04:23you know, how to find like a cab or something.

04:25And then I noticed that this person is talking

04:28in a very strange way.

04:29And my first thought was that this person

04:31have some, you know, pronunciation issues or something.

04:34And I'm trying to talk very slowly to him

04:36and I was with another professor, Ernst Frankel.

04:38And he's like laughing because it's funny

04:42that I don't get that the guy is talking in this way

04:44because he thinks that I cannot speak.

04:46So it was really kind of mirroring experience.

04:49And it led me think a lot about my own experiences

04:53moving, you know, from different countries.

04:56So I think that books play a big role

04:59in my understanding of the world.

05:01On the science question, you mentioned that

05:06it made you discover that personalities of human beings

05:09are more important than perhaps ideas.

05:12Is that what I heard?

05:13It's not necessarily that they are more important

05:15than ideas, but I think that ideas on their own

05:19are not sufficient.

05:20And many times, at least at the local horizon,

05:24it's the personalities and their devotion to their ideas

05:29is really that locally changes the landscape.

05:32Now, if you're looking at AI, like let's say 30 years ago,

05:37you know, dark ages of AI or whatever,

05:39what is symbolic times, you can use any word.

05:42You know, there were some people,

05:44now we're looking at a lot of that work

05:46and we're kind of thinking this was not really

05:48maybe a relevant work, but you can see that some people

05:52managed to take it and to make it so shiny

05:54and dominate the academic world

05:59and make it to be the standard.

06:02If you look at the area of natural language processing,

06:06it is well known fact that the reason that statistics

06:09in NLP took such a long time to become mainstream

06:13because there were quite a number of personalities

06:16which didn't believe in this idea

06:18and didn't stop research progress in this area.

06:22So I do not think that, you know,

06:25kind of asymptotically maybe personalities matters,

06:28but I think locally it does make quite a bit of impact

06:33and it's generally, you know,

06:36speeds up the rate of adoption of the new ideas.

06:41Yeah, and the other interesting question

06:43is in the early days of particular discipline,

06:46I think you mentioned in that book

06:50is ultimately a book of cancer.

06:52It's called The Emperor of All Melodies.

06:55Yeah, and those melodies included the trying to,

06:58the medicine, was it centered around?

07:00So it was actually centered on, you know,

07:04how people thought of curing cancer.

07:07Like for me, it was really a discovery how people,

07:10what was the science of chemistry behind drug development

07:14that it actually grew up out of dying,

07:17like coloring industry that people

07:19who developed chemistry in 19th century in Germany

07:23and Britain to do, you know, the really new dyes.

07:28They looked at the molecules and identified

07:30that they do certain things to cells.

07:32And from there, the process started.

07:34And, you know, like historically saying,

07:35yeah, this is fascinating

07:36that they managed to make the connection

07:38and look under the microscope and do all this discovery.

07:42But as you continue reading about it

07:44and you read about how chemotherapy drugs

07:48which were developed in Boston,

07:50and some of them were developed.

07:52And Farber, Dr. Farber from Dana Farber,

07:57you know, how the experiments were done

08:00that, you know, there was some miscalculation,

08:03let's put it this way.

08:04And they tried it on the patients and they just,

08:06and those were children with leukemia and they died.

08:09And then they tried another modification.

08:11You look at the process, how imperfect is this process?

08:15And, you know, like, if we're again looking back

08:17like 60 years ago, 70 years ago,

08:19you can kind of understand it.

08:20But some of the stories in this book

08:23which were really shocking to me

08:24were really happening, you know, maybe decades ago.

08:27And we still don't have a vehicle

08:30to do it much more fast and effective and, you know,

08:35scientific the way I'm thinking computer science scientific.

08:38So from the perspective of computer science,

08:40you've gotten a chance to work the application to cancer

08:43and to medicine in general.

08:44From a perspective of an engineer and a computer scientist,

08:48how far along are we from understanding the human body,

08:51biology of being able to manipulate it

08:55in a way we can cure some of the maladies,

08:57some of the diseases?

08:59So this is very interesting question.

09:03And if you're thinking as a computer scientist

09:06about this problem, I think one of the reasons

09:09that we succeeded in the areas

09:11we as a computer scientist succeeded

09:13is because we don't have,

09:16we are not trying to understand in some ways.

09:18Like if you're thinking about like eCommerce, Amazon,

09:22Amazon doesn't really understand you.

09:24And that's why it recommends you certain books

09:27or certain products, correct?

09:30And, you know, traditionally when people

09:34were thinking about marketing, you know,

09:36they divided the population to different kind of subgroups,

09:39identify the features of this subgroup

09:41and come up with a strategy

09:43which is specific to that subgroup.

09:45If you're looking about recommendation system,

09:47they're not claiming that they're understanding somebody,

09:50they're just managing to,

09:52from the patterns of your behavior

09:54to recommend you a product.

§02Transcript · 09:57–19:20

09:57Now, if you look at the traditional biology,

09:59and obviously I wouldn't say that I

10:03at any way, you know, educated in this field,

10:06but you know what I see, there's really a lot of emphasis

10:09on mechanistic understanding.

10:10And it was very surprising to me

10:12coming from computer science,

10:13how much emphasis is on this understanding.

10:17And given the complexity of the system,

10:20maybe the deterministic full understanding

10:23of this process is, you know, beyond our capacity.

10:27And the same ways in computer science

10:29when we're doing recognition, when you do recommendation

10:31and many other areas,

10:32it's just probabilistic matching process.

10:35And in some way, maybe in certain cases,

10:40we shouldn't even attempt to understand

10:42or we can attempt to understand, but in parallel,

10:45we can actually do this kind of matchings

10:48that would help us to find key role

10:51to do early diagnostics and so on.

10:54And I know that in these communities,

10:55it's really important to understand,

10:59but I'm sometimes wondering, you know,

11:00what exactly does it mean to understand here?

11:02Well, there's stuff that works and,

11:05but that can be, like you said,

11:07separate from this deep human desire

11:10to uncover the mysteries of the universe,

11:12of science, of the way the body works,

11:16the way the mind works.

11:17It's the dream of symbolic AI,

11:19of being able to reduce human knowledge into logic

11:25and be able to play with that logic

11:26in a way that's very explainable

11:28and understandable for us humans.

11:30I mean, that's a beautiful dream.

11:31So I understand it, but it seems that

11:34what seems to work today and we'll talk about it more

11:37is as much as possible, reduce stuff into data,

11:40reduce whatever problem you're interested in to data

11:43and try to apply statistical methods,

11:47apply machine learning to that.

11:49On a personal note,

11:51you were diagnosed with breast cancer in 2014.

11:55What did facing your mortality make you think about?

11:58How did it change you?

12:00You know, this is a great question

12:01and I think that I was interviewed many times

12:03and nobody actually asked me this question.

12:05I think I was 43 at a time.

12:09And the first time I realized in my life that I may die

12:12and I never thought about it before.

12:14And there was a long time since you're diagnosed

12:17until you actually know what you have

12:18and how severe is your disease.

12:20For me, it was like maybe two and a half months.

12:23And I didn't know where I am during this time

12:28because I was getting different tests

12:30and one would say it's bad and I would say, no, it is not.

12:33So until I knew where I am,

12:34I really was thinking about

12:36all these different possible outcomes.

12:38Were you imagining the worst

12:39or were you trying to be optimistic or?

12:41It would be really,

12:43I don't remember what was my thinking.

12:47It was really a mixture with many components at the time

12:51speaking in our terms.

12:54And one thing that I remember,

12:59and every test comes and then you're saying,

13:01oh, it could be this or it may not be this.

13:03And you're hopeful and then you're desperate.

13:04So it's like, there is a whole slew of emotions

13:07that goes through you.

13:09But what I remember is that when I came back to MIT,

13:15I was kind of going the whole time through the treatment

13:17to MIT, but my brain was not really there.

13:19But when I came back, really finished my treatment

13:21and I was here teaching and everything,

13:24I look back at what my group was doing,

13:27what other groups was doing.

13:28And I saw these trivialities.

13:30It's like people are building their careers

13:33on improving some parts around two or 3% or whatever.

13:36I was, it's like, seriously,

13:38I did a work on how to decipher ugaritic,

13:40like a language that nobody speak and whatever,

13:42like what is significance?

13:46When all of a sudden, I walked out of MIT,

13:49which is when people really do care

13:51what happened to your ICLR paper,

13:54what is your next publication to ACL,

13:57to the world where people, you see a lot of suffering

14:01that I'm kind of totally shielded on it on daily basis.

14:04And it's like the first time I've seen like real life

14:07and real suffering.

14:09And I was thinking, why are we trying to improve the parser

14:13or deal with trivialities when we have capacity

14:18to really make a change?

14:20And it was really challenging to me because on one hand,

14:24I have my graduate students really want to do their papers

14:27and their work, and they want to continue to do

14:29what they were doing, which was great.

14:31And then it was me who really kind of reevaluated

14:36what is the importance.

14:37And also at that point, because I had to take some break,

14:42I look back into like my years in science

14:47and I was thinking, like 10 years ago,

14:50this was the biggest thing, I don't know, topic models.

14:52We have like millions of papers on topic models

14:55and variation of topics models.

14:56Now it's totally like irrelevant.

14:58And you start looking at this, what do you perceive

15:02as important at different point of time

15:04and how it fades over time.

15:08And since we have a limited time,

15:12all of us have limited time on us,

15:14it's really important to prioritize things

15:18that really matter to you, maybe matter to you

15:20at that particular point.

15:22But it's important to take some time

15:24and understand what matters to you,

15:26which may not necessarily be the same

15:28as what matters to the rest of your scientific community

15:31and pursue that vision.

15:34So that moment, did it make you cognizant?

15:38You mentioned suffering of just the general amount

15:42of suffering in the world.

15:44Is that what you're referring to?

15:45So as opposed to topic models

15:47and specific detailed problems in NLP,

15:50did you start to think about other people

15:54who have been diagnosed with cancer?

15:56Is that the way you started to see the world perhaps?

16:00Oh, absolutely.

16:00And it actually creates, because like, for instance,

16:04there is parts of the treatment

16:05where you need to go to the hospital every day

16:08and you see the community of people that you see

16:11and many of them are much worse than I was at a time.

16:16And you all of a sudden see it all.

16:20And people who are happier someday

16:23just because they feel better.

16:25And for people who are in our normal realm,

16:28you take it totally for granted that you feel well,

16:30that if you decide to go running, you can go running

16:32and you're pretty much free

16:35to do whatever you want with your body.

16:37Like I saw like a community,

16:40my community became those people.

16:42And I remember one of my friends, Dina Katabi,

16:47took me to Prudential to buy me a gift for my birthday.

16:50And it was like the first time in months

16:52that I went to kind of to see other people.

16:54And I was like, wow, first of all, these people,

16:58they are happy and they're laughing

16:59and they're very different from these other my people.

17:02And second of thing, I think it's totally crazy.

17:04They're like laughing and wasting their money

17:06on some stupid gifts.

17:08And they may die.

17:12They already may have cancer and they don't understand it.

17:15So you can really see how the mind changes

17:20that you can see that,

17:22before that you can ask,

17:23didn't you know that you're gonna die?

17:24Of course I knew, but it was a kind of a theoretical notion.

17:28It wasn't something which was concrete.

17:31And at that point, when you really see it

17:33and see how little means sometimes the system has

17:38to have them, you really feel that we need to take a lot

17:41of our brilliance that we have here at MIT

17:45and translate it into something useful.

17:48Yeah, and you still couldn't have a lot of definitions,

17:50but of course, alleviating, suffering, alleviating,

17:53trying to cure cancer is a beautiful mission.

17:57So I of course know theoretically the notion of cancer,

18:01but just reading more and more about it's 1.7 million

18:07new cancer cases in the United States every year,

18:09600,000 cancer related deaths every year.

18:13So this has a huge impact, United States globally.

18:19When broadly, before we talk about how machine learning,

18:24how MIT can help,

18:27when do you think we as a civilization will cure cancer?

18:32How hard of a problem is it from everything you've learned

18:34from it recently?

18:37I cannot really assess it.

18:39What I do believe will happen with the advancement

18:42in machine learning is that a lot of types of cancer

18:45we will be able to predict way early

18:48and more effectively utilize existing treatments.

18:53I think, I hope at least that with all the advancements

18:57in AI and drug discovery, we would be able

19:01to much faster find relevant molecules.

19:04What I'm not sure about is how long it will take

19:08the medical establishment and regulatory bodies

19:11to kind of catch up and to implement it.

19:14And I think this is a very big piece of puzzle

19:17that is currently not addressed.

§03Transcript · 19:20–29:07

19:20That's the really interesting question.

19:21So first a small detail that I think the answer is yes,

19:25but is cancer one of the diseases that when detected earlier

19:33that's a significantly improves the outcomes?

19:37So like, cause we will talk about there's the cure

19:41and then there is detection.

19:43And I think where machine learning can really help

19:45is earlier detection.

19:46So does detection help?

19:48Detection is crucial.

19:49For instance, the vast majority of pancreatic cancer patients

19:53are detected at the stage that they are incurable.

19:57That's why they have such a terrible survival rate.

20:03It's like just few percent over five years.

20:07It's pretty much today the sentence.

20:09But if you can discover this disease early,

20:14there are mechanisms to treat it.

20:16And in fact, I know a number of people who were diagnosed

20:20and saved just because they had food poisoning.

20:23They had terrible food poisoning.

20:25They went to ER, they got scan.

20:28There were early signs on the scan

20:30and that would save their lives.

20:33But this wasn't really an accidental case.

20:35So as we become better, we would be able to help

20:41to many more people that are likely to develop diseases.

20:46And I just want to say that as I got more into this field,

20:51I realized that cancer is of course terrible disease,

20:53but there are really the whole slew of terrible diseases

20:56out there like neurodegenerative diseases and others.

21:01So we, of course, a lot of us are fixated on cancer

21:04because it's so prevalent in our society.

21:06And you see these people where there are a lot of patients

21:08with neurodegenerative diseases

21:10and the kind of aging diseases

21:12that we still don't have a good solution for.

21:17And I felt as a computer scientist,

21:22we kind of decided that it's other people's job

21:25to treat these diseases because it's like traditionally

21:29people in biology or in chemistry or MDs

21:32are the ones who are thinking about it.

21:35And after kind of start paying attention,

21:37I think that it's really a wrong assumption

21:40and we all need to join the battle.

21:42So how it seems like in cancer specifically

21:46that there's a lot of ways that machine learning can help.

21:49So what's the role of machine learning

21:51in the diagnosis of cancer?

21:55So for many cancers today, we really don't know

21:58what is your likelihood to get cancer.

22:03And for the vast majority of patients,

22:06especially on the younger patients,

22:07it really comes as a surprise.

22:09Like for instance, for breast cancer,

22:1180% of the patients are first in their families,

22:13it's like me.

22:15And I never saw that I had any increased risk

22:18because nobody had it in my family.

22:20And for some reason in my head,

22:22it was kind of inherited disease.

22:26But even if I would pay attention,

22:28the very simplistic statistical models

22:32that are currently used in clinical practice,

22:34they really don't give you an answer, so you don't know.

22:37And the same true for pancreatic cancer,

22:40the same true for non smoking lung cancer and many others.

22:45So what machine learning can do here

22:47is utilize all this data to tell us early

22:51who is likely to be susceptible

22:53and using all the information that is already there,

22:55be it imaging, be it your other tests,

22:59and eventually liquid biopsies and others,

23:04where the signal itself is not sufficiently strong

23:08for human eye to do good discrimination

23:11because the signal may be weak,

23:12but by combining many sources,

23:15machine which is trained on large volumes of data

23:18can really detect it early.

23:20And that's what we've seen with breast cancer

23:22and people are reporting it in other diseases as well.

23:25That really boils down to data, right?

23:28And in the different kinds of sources of data.

23:30And you mentioned regulatory challenges.

23:33So what are the challenges

23:35in gathering large data sets in this space?

23:40Again, another great question.

23:42So it took me after I decided that I want to work on it

23:45two years to get access to data.

23:48Any data, like any significant data set?

23:50Any significant amount, like right now in this country,

23:53there is no publicly available data set

23:57of modern mammograms that you can just go

23:58on your computer, sign a document and get it.

24:01It just doesn't exist.

24:03I mean, obviously every hospital has its own collection

24:06of mammograms.

24:07There are data that came out of clinical trials.

24:11What we're talking about here is a computer scientist

24:13who just wants to run his or her model

24:17and see how it works.

24:19This data, like ImageNet, doesn't exist.

24:22And there is a set which is called like Florida data set

24:28which is a film mammogram from 90s

24:30which is totally not representative

24:32of the current developments.

24:33Whatever you're learning on them doesn't scale up.

24:35This is the only resource that is available.

24:39And today there are many agencies

24:42that govern access to data.

24:44Like the hospital holds your data

24:46and the hospital decides whether they would give it

24:49to the researcher to work with this data or not.

24:52Individual hospital?

24:54Yeah.

24:55I mean, the hospital may, you know,

24:57assuming that you're doing research collaboration,

24:59you can submit, you know,

25:01there is a proper approval process guided by RB

25:05and if you go through all the processes,

25:07you can eventually get access to the data.

25:10But if you yourself know our OEI community,

25:13there are not that many people who actually ever got access

25:16to data because it's very challenging process.

25:20And sorry, just in a quick comment,

25:22MGH or any kind of hospital,

25:25are they scanning the data?

25:28Are they digitally storing it?

25:29Oh, it is already digitally stored.

25:31You don't need to do any extra processing steps.

25:34It's already there in the right format is that right now

25:38there are a lot of issues that govern access to the data

25:41because the hospital is legally responsible for the data.

25:46And, you know, they have a lot to lose

25:51if they give the data to the wrong person,

25:53but they may not have a lot to gain if they give it

25:56as a hospital, as a legal entity has given it to you.

26:00And the way, you know, what I would imagine

26:02happening in the future is the same thing that happens

26:05when you're getting your driving license,

26:06you can decide whether you want to donate your organs.

26:09You can imagine that whenever a person goes to the hospital,

26:13they, it should be easy for them to donate their data

26:17for research and it can be different kind of,

26:19do they only give you a test results or only mammogram

26:22or only imaging data or the whole medical record?

26:27Because at the end,

26:30we all will benefit from all this insights.

26:33And it's not like you say, I want to keep my data private,

26:36but I would really love to get it from other people

26:38because other people are thinking the same way.

26:40So if there is a mechanism to do this donation

26:45and the patient has an ability to say

26:48how they want to use their data for research,

26:50it would be really a game changer.

26:54People, when they think about this problem,

26:56there's a, it depends on the population,

26:58depends on the demographics,

27:00but there's some privacy concerns generally,

27:03not just medical data, just any kind of data.

27:05It's what you said, my data, it should belong kind of to me.

27:09I'm worried how it's going to be misused.

27:12How do we alleviate those concerns?

27:17Because that seems like a problem that needs to be,

27:19that problem of trust, of transparency needs to be solved

27:22before we build large data sets that help detect cancer,

27:27help save those very people in the future.

27:30So I think there are two things that could be done.

27:31There is a technical solutions

27:34and there are societal solutions.

27:38So on the technical end,

27:41we today have ability to improve disambiguation.

27:48Like, for instance, for imaging,

27:49it's, you know, for imaging, you can do it pretty well.

27:55What's disambiguation?

27:56And disambiguation, sorry, disambiguation,

27:58removing the identification,

27:59removing the names of the people.

28:02There are other data, like if it is a raw tax,

28:04you cannot really achieve 99.9%,

28:08but there are all these techniques

28:10that actually some of them are developed at MIT,

28:12how you can do learning on the encoded data

28:15where you locally encode the image,

28:17you train a network which only works on the encoded images

28:22and then you send the outcome back to the hospital

28:24and you can open it up.

28:26So those are the technical solutions.

28:28There are a lot of people who are working in this space

28:30where the learning happens in the encoded form.

28:33We are still early,

28:36but this is an interesting research area

28:39where I think we'll make more progress.

28:43There is a lot of work in natural language processing

28:45community how to do the identification better.

28:50But even today, there are already a lot of data

28:54which can be deidentified perfectly,

28:55like your test data, for instance, correct,

28:58where you can just, you know the name of the patient,

29:00you just want to extract the part with the numbers.

29:04The big problem here is again,

§04Transcript · 29:08–38:53

29:08hospitals don't see much incentive

29:10to give this data away on one hand

29:12and then there is general concern.

29:14Now, when I'm talking about societal benefits

29:17and about the education,

29:19the public needs to understand that I think

29:25that there are situation and I still remember myself

29:29when I really needed an answer, I had to make a choice.

29:33There was no information to make a choice,

29:35you're just guessing.

29:36And at that moment you feel that your life is at the stake,

29:41but you just don't have information to make the choice.

29:44And many times when I give talks,

29:48I get emails from women who say,

29:51you know, I'm in this situation,

29:52can you please run statistic and see what are the outcomes?

29:57We get almost every week a mammogram that comes by mail

30:01to my office at MIT, I'm serious.

30:04That people ask to run because they need to make

30:07life changing decisions.

30:10And of course, I'm not planning to open a clinic here,

30:12but we do run and give them the results for their doctors.

30:16But the point that I'm trying to make,

30:20that we all at some point or our loved ones

30:23will be in the situation where you need information

30:26to make the best choice.

30:28And if this information is not available,

30:31you would feel vulnerable and unprotected.

30:35And then the question is, you know, what do I care more?

30:37Because at the end, everything is a trade off, correct?

30:40Yeah, exactly.

30:41Just out of curiosity, it seems like one possible solution,

30:45I'd like to see what you think of it,

30:49based on what you just said,

30:50based on wanting to know answers

30:52for when you're yourself in that situation.

30:55Is it possible for patients to own their data

30:58as opposed to hospitals owning their data?

31:01Of course, theoretically, I guess patients own their data,

31:04but can you walk out there with a USB stick

31:07containing everything or upload it to the cloud?

31:10Where a company, you know, I remember Microsoft

31:14had a service, like I try, I was really excited about

31:17and Google Health was there.

31:19I tried to give, I was excited about it.

31:21Basically companies helping you upload your data

31:24to the cloud so that you can move from hospital to hospital

31:27from doctor to doctor.

31:29Do you see a promise of that kind of possibility?

31:32I absolutely think this is, you know,

31:34the right way to exchange the data.

31:38I don't know now who's the biggest player in this field,

31:41but I can clearly see that even for totally selfish

31:45health reasons, when you are going to a new facility

31:49and many of us are sent to some specialized treatment,

31:52they don't easily have access to your data.

31:55And today, you know, we might want to send this mammogram,

31:59need to go to the hospital, find some small office

32:01which gives them the CD and they ship as a CD.

32:04So you can imagine we're looking at kind of decades old

32:08mechanism of data exchange.

32:11So I definitely think this is an area where hopefully

32:15all the right regulatory and technical forces will align

32:20and we will see it actually implemented.

32:23It's sad because unfortunately, and I need to research

32:27why that happened, but I'm pretty sure Google Health

32:30and Microsoft Health Vault or whatever it's called

32:32both closed down, which means that there was

32:36either regulatory pressure or there's not a business case

32:39or there's challenges from hospitals,

32:41which is very disappointing.

32:43So when you say you don't know what the biggest players are,

32:46the two biggest that I was aware of closed their doors.

32:50So I'm hoping, I'd love to see why

32:53and I'd love to see who else can come up.

32:54It seems like one of those Elon Musk style problems

32:59that are obvious needs to be solved

33:01and somebody needs to step up and actually do

33:02this large scale data collection.

33:07So I know there is an initiative in Massachusetts,

33:09I think, which you led by the governor

33:11to try to create this kind of health exchange system

33:15where at least to help people who kind of when you show up

33:17in emergency room and there is no information

33:20about what are your allergies and other things.

33:23So I don't know how far it will go.

33:26But another thing that you said

33:28and I find it very interesting is actually

33:30who are the successful players in this space

33:33and the whole implementation, how does it go?

33:37To me, it is from the anthropological perspective,

33:40it's more fascinating that AI that today goes in healthcare,

33:44we've seen so many attempts and so very little successes.

33:50And it's interesting to understand that I've by no means

33:54have knowledge to assess it,

33:56why we are in the position where we are.

33:59Yeah, it's interesting because data is really fuel

34:02for a lot of successful applications.

34:04And when that data acquires regulatory approval,

34:08like the FDA or any kind of approval,

34:12it seems that the computer scientists

34:15are not quite there yet in being able

34:17to play the regulatory game,

34:18understanding the fundamentals of it.

34:21I think that in many cases when even people do have data,

34:26we still don't know what exactly do you need to demonstrate

34:31to change the standard of care.

34:35Like let me give you an example

34:37related to my breast cancer research.

34:41So in traditional breast cancer risk assessment,

34:45there is something called density,

34:47which determines the likelihood of a woman to get cancer.

34:50And this pretty much says,

34:51how much white do you see on the mammogram?

34:54The whiter it is, the more likely the tissue is dense.

34:58And the idea behind density, it's not a bad idea.

35:03In 1967, a radiologist called Wolf decided to look back

35:08at women who were diagnosed

35:09and see what is special in their images.

35:12Can we look back and say that they're likely to develop?

35:14So he come up with some patterns.

35:16And it was the best that his human eye can identify.

35:20Then it was kind of formalized

35:22and coded into four categories.

35:24And that's what we are using today.

35:26And today this density assessment

35:31is actually a federal law from 2019,

35:34approved by President Trump

35:36and for the previous FDA commissioner,

35:40where women are supposed to be advised by their providers

35:43if they have high density,

35:45putting them into higher risk category.

35:47And in some states,

35:49you can actually get supplementary screening

35:51paid by your insurance because you're in this category.

35:53Now you can say, how much science do we have behind it?

35:56Whatever, biological science or epidemiological evidence.

36:00So it turns out that between 40 and 50% of women

36:05have dense breasts.

36:06So about 40% of patients are coming out of their screening

36:11and somebody tells them, you are in high risk.

36:15Now, what exactly does it mean

36:16if you as half of the population in high risk?

36:19It's from saying, maybe I'm not,

36:22or what do I really need to do with it?

36:23Because the system doesn't provide me

36:27a lot of the solutions

36:28because there are so many people like me,

36:30we cannot really provide very expensive solutions for them.

36:34And the reason this whole density became this big deal,

36:38it's actually advocated by the patients

36:40who felt very unprotected

36:42because many women went and did the mammograms

36:44which were normal.

36:46And then it turns out that they already had cancer,

36:49quite developed cancer.

36:50So they didn't have a way to know who is really at risk

36:54and what is the likelihood that when the doctor tells you,

36:56you're okay, you are not okay.

36:58So at the time, and it was 15 years ago,

37:02this maybe was the best piece of science that we had.

37:06And it took quite 15, 16 years to make it federal law.

37:12But now this is a standard.

37:15Now with a deep learning model,

37:17we can so much more accurately predict

37:19who is gonna develop breast cancer

37:21just because you're trained on a logical thing.

37:23And instead of describing how much white

37:26and what kind of white machine

37:27can systematically identify the patterns,

37:30which was the original idea behind the thought

37:32of the cardiologist,

37:33machines can do it much more systematically

37:35and predict the risk when you're training the machine

37:38to look at the image and to say the risk in one to five years.

37:42Now you can ask me how long it will take

37:45to substitute this density,

37:46which is broadly used across the country

37:48and really is not helping to bring this new models.

37:54And I would say it's not a matter of the algorithm.

37:56Algorithms use already orders of magnitude better

37:58than what is currently in practice.

38:00I think it's really the question,

38:02who do you need to convince?

38:04How many hospitals do you need to run the experiment?

38:07What, you know, all this mechanism of adoption

38:11and how do you explain to patients

38:15and to women across the country

38:17that this is really a better measure?

38:20And again, I don't think it's an AI question.

38:22We can work more and make the algorithm even better,

38:25but I don't think that this is the current, you know,

38:29the barrier, the barrier is really this other piece

38:32that for some reason is not really explored.

38:35It's like anthropological piece.

38:36And coming back to your question about books,

38:39there is a book that I'm reading.

38:42It's called American Sickness by Elizabeth Rosenthal.

38:48And I got this book from my clinical collaborator,

38:51Dr. Connie Lehman.

§05Transcript · 38:53–48:00

38:53And I said, I know everything that I need to know

38:54about American health system,

38:56but you know, every page doesn't fail to surprise me.

38:59And I think there is a lot of interesting

39:03and really deep lessons for people like us

39:06from computer science who are coming into this field

39:09to really understand how complex is the system of incentives

39:13in the system to understand how you really need to play

39:17to drive adoption.

39:19You just said it's complex,

39:21but if we're trying to simplify it,

39:23who do you think most likely would be successful

39:27if we push on this group of people?

39:29Is it the doctors?

39:30Is it the hospitals?

39:31Is it the governments or policymakers?

39:34Is it the individual patients, consumers?

39:38Who needs to be inspired to most likely lead to adoption?

39:45Or is there no simple answer?

39:47There's no simple answer,

39:48but I think there is a lot of good people in medical system

39:51who do want to make a change.

39:56And I think a lot of power will come from us as consumers

40:01because we all are consumers or future consumers

40:04of healthcare services.

40:06And I think we can do so much more

40:12in explaining the potential and not in the hype terms

40:15and not saying that we now killed all Alzheimer

40:17and I'm really sick of reading this kind of articles

40:20which make these claims,

40:22but really to show with some examples

40:24what this implementation does and how it changes the care.

40:29Because I can't imagine,

40:30it doesn't matter what kind of politician it is,

40:33we all are susceptible to these diseases.

40:35There is no one who is free.

40:37And eventually, we all are humans

40:41and we're looking for a way to alleviate the suffering.

40:44And this is one possible way

40:47where we currently are under utilizing,

40:49which I think can help.

40:51So it sounds like the biggest problems are outside of AI

40:55in terms of the biggest impact at this point.

40:57But are there any open problems

41:00in the application of ML to oncology in general?

41:03So improving the detection or any other creative methods,

41:07whether it's on the detection segmentations

41:09or the vision perception side

41:11or some other clever of inference?

41:16Yeah, what in general in your view are the open problems

41:19in this space?

41:20Yeah, I just want to mention that beside detection,

41:22not the area where I am kind of quite active

41:24and I think it's really an increasingly important area

41:28in healthcare is drug design.

41:32Absolutely.

41:33Because it's fine if you detect something early,

41:36but you still need to get drugs

41:41and new drugs for these conditions.

41:43And today, all of the drug design,

41:46ML is non existent there.

41:48We don't have any drug that was developed by the ML model

41:52or even not developed,

41:54but at least even knew that ML model

41:57plays some significant role.

41:59I think this area with all the new ability

42:03to generate molecules with desired properties

42:05to do in silica screening is really a big open area.

42:11To be totally honest with you,

42:12when we are doing diagnostics and imaging,

42:14primarily taking the ideas that were developed

42:17for other areas and you applying them with some adaptation,

42:20the area of drug design is really technically interesting

42:26and exciting area.

42:27You need to work a lot with graphs

42:30and capture various 3D properties.

42:34There are lots and lots of opportunities

42:37to be technically creative.

42:39And I think there are a lot of open questions in this area.

42:46We're already getting a lot of successes

42:48even with kind of the first generation of these models,

42:52but there is much more new creative things that you can do.

42:56And what's very nice to see is that actually

42:59the more powerful, the more interesting models

43:04actually do do better.

43:05So there is a place to innovate in machine learning

43:11in this area.

43:13And some of these techniques are really unique to,

43:16let's say, to graph generation and other things.

43:19So...

43:20What, just to interrupt really quick, I'm sorry,

43:23graph generation or graphs, drug discovery in general,

43:30how do you discover a drug?

43:31Is this chemistry?

43:33Is this trying to predict different chemical reactions?

43:37Or is it some kind of...

43:39What do graphs even represent in this space?

43:42Oh, sorry, sorry.

43:43And what's a drug?

43:45Okay, so let's say you're thinking

43:47there are many different types of drugs,

43:48but let's say you're gonna talk about small molecules

43:50because I think today the majority of drugs

43:52are small molecules.

43:53So small molecule is a graph.

43:55The molecule is just where the node in the graph

43:59is an atom and then you have the bonds.

44:01So it's really a graph representation.

44:03If you look at it in 2D, correct,

44:05you can do it 3D, but let's say,

44:07let's keep it simple and stick in 2D.

44:11So pretty much my understanding today,

44:14how it is done at scale in the companies,

44:18without machine learning,

44:20you have high throughput screening.

44:22So you know that you are interested

44:23to get certain biological activity of the compound.

44:26So you scan a lot of compounds,

44:28like maybe hundreds of thousands,

44:30some really big number of compounds.

44:32You identify some compounds which have the right activity

44:36and then at this point, the chemists come

44:39and they're trying to now to optimize

44:43this original heat to different properties

44:45that you want it to be maybe soluble,

44:47you want it to decrease toxicity,

44:49you want it to decrease the side effects.

44:51Are those, sorry again to interrupt,

44:54can that be done in simulation

44:55or just by looking at the molecules

44:57or do you need to actually run reactions

44:59in real labs with lab coats and stuff?

45:02So when you do high throughput screening,

45:04you really do screening.

45:06It's in the lab.

45:07It's really the lab screening.

45:09You screen the molecules, correct?

45:10I don't know what screening is.

45:12The screening is just check them for certain property.

45:15Like in the physical space, in the physical world,

45:17like actually there's a machine probably

45:18that's actually running the reaction.

45:21Actually running the reactions, yeah.

45:22So there is a process where you can run

45:25and that's why it's called high throughput

45:26that it become cheaper and faster

45:29to do it on very big number of molecules.

45:33You run the screening,

45:35you identify potential good starts

45:40and then when the chemists come in

45:42who have done it many times

45:44and then they can try to look at it and say,

45:46how can you change the molecule

45:48to get the desired profile

45:51in terms of all other properties?

45:53So maybe how do I make it more bioactive and so on?

45:56And there the creativity of the chemists

45:59really is the one that determines the success

46:03of this design because again,

46:07they have a lot of domain knowledge

46:09of what works, how do you decrease the CCD and so on

46:12and that's what they do.

46:15So all the drugs that are currently

46:17in the FDA approved drugs

46:20or even drugs that are in clinical trials,

46:22they are designed using these domain experts

46:27which goes through this combinatorial space

46:30of molecules or graphs or whatever

46:31and find the right one or adjust it to be the right ones.

46:35It sounds like the breast density heuristic

46:38from 67 to the same echoes.

46:40It's not necessarily that.

46:41It's really driven by deep understanding.

46:45It's not like they just observe it.

46:46I mean, they do deeply understand chemistry

46:48and they do understand how different groups

46:50and how does it changes the properties.

46:53So there is a lot of science that gets into it

46:56and a lot of kind of simulation,

46:58how do you want it to behave?

47:01It's very, very complex.

47:03So they're quite effective at this design, obviously.

47:06Now effective, yeah, we have drugs.

47:08Like depending on how do you measure effective,

47:10if you measure it in terms of cost, it's prohibitive.

47:13If you measure it in terms of times,

47:15we have lots of diseases for which we don't have any drugs

47:18and we don't even know how to approach

47:20and don't need to mention few drugs

47:23or neurodegenerative disease drugs that fail.

47:27So there are lots of trials that fail in later stages,

47:32which is really catastrophic from the financial perspective.

47:35So is it the effective, the most effective mechanism?

47:39Absolutely no, but this is the only one that currently works.

47:44And I was closely interacting

47:47with people in pharmaceutical industry.

47:49I was really fascinated on how sharp

47:51and what a deep understanding of the domain do they have.

47:55It's not observation driven.

47:57There is really a lot of science behind what they do.

§06Transcript · 48:00–57:10

48:00But if you ask me, can machine learning change it,

48:02I firmly believe yes,

48:05because even the most experienced chemists

48:07cannot hold in their memory and understanding

48:11everything that you can learn

48:12from millions of molecules and reactions.

48:17And the space of graphs is a totally new space.

48:19I mean, it's a really interesting space

48:22for machine learning to explore, graph generation.

48:23Yeah, so there are a lot of things that you can do here.

48:26So we do a lot of work.

48:28So the first tool that we started with

48:31was the tool that can predict properties of the molecules.

48:36So you can just give the molecule and the property.

48:39It can be by activity property,

48:41or it can be some other property.

48:44And you train the molecules

48:46and you can now take a new molecule

48:50and predict this property.

48:52Now, when people started working in this area,

48:54it is something very simple.

48:55They do kind of existing fingerprints,

48:58which is kind of handcrafted features of the molecule.

49:00When you break the graph to substructures

49:02and then you run it in a feed forward neural network.

49:05And what was interesting to see that clearly,

49:08this was not the most effective way to proceed.

49:11And you need to have much more complex models

49:14that can induce a representation,

49:16which can translate this graph into the embeddings

49:19and do these predictions.

49:21So this is one direction.

49:23Then another direction, which is kind of related

49:25is not only to stop by looking at the embedding itself,

49:29but actually modify it to produce better molecules.

49:32So you can think about it as machine translation

49:36that you can start with a molecule

49:38and then there is an improved version of molecule.

49:40And you can again, with encoder translate it

49:42into the hidden space and then learn how to modify it

49:45to improve the in some ways version of the molecules.

49:49So that's, it's kind of really exciting.

49:52We already have seen that the property prediction

49:54works pretty well.

49:56And now we are generating molecules

49:59and there is actually labs

50:01which are manufacturing this molecule.

50:04So we'll see where it will get us.

50:06Okay, that's really exciting.

50:07There's a lot of promise.

50:08Speaking of machine translation and embeddings,

50:11I think you have done a lot of really great research

50:15in NLP, natural language processing.

50:19Can you tell me your journey through NLP?

50:21What ideas, problems, approaches were you working on?

50:25Were you fascinated with, did you explore

50:28before this magic of deep learning reemerged and after?

50:34So when I started my work in NLP, it was in 97.

50:38This was very interesting time.

50:39It was exactly the time that I came to ACL.

50:43And at the time I could barely understand English,

50:46but it was exactly like the transition point

50:48because half of the papers were really rule based approaches

50:53where people took more kind of heavy linguistic approaches

50:56for small domains and try to build up from there.

51:00And then there were the first generation of papers

51:02which were corpus based papers.

51:04And they were very simple in our terms

51:06when you collect some statistics

51:07and do prediction based on them.

51:10And I found it really fascinating that one community

51:13can think so very differently about the problem.

51:19And I remember my first paper that I wrote,

51:22it didn't have a single formula.

51:24It didn't have evaluation.

51:25It just had examples of outputs.

51:28And this was a standard of the field at the time.

51:32In some ways, I mean, people maybe just started emphasizing

51:35the empirical evaluation, but for many applications

51:38like summarization, you just show some examples of outputs.

51:42And then increasingly you can see that how

51:45the statistical approaches dominated the field

51:48and we've seen increased performance

51:52across many basic tasks.

51:56The sad part of the story maybe that if you look again

52:00through this journey, we see that the role of linguistics

52:05in some ways greatly diminishes.

52:07And I think that you really need to look

52:11through the whole proceeding to find one or two papers

52:14which make some interesting linguistic references.

52:17It's really big.

52:18Today, yeah.

52:18Today, today.

52:19This was definitely one of the.

52:20Things like syntactic trees, just even basically

52:23against our conversation about human understanding

52:26of language, which I guess what linguistics would be

52:30structured, hierarchical representing language

52:34in a way that's human explainable, understandable

52:37is missing today.

52:39I don't know if it is, what is explainable

52:42and understandable.

52:43In the end, we perform functions and it's okay

52:47to have machine which performs a function.

52:50Like when you're thinking about your calculator, correct?

52:53Your calculator can do calculation very different

52:56from you would do the calculation,

52:57but it's very effective in it.

52:58And this is fine if we can achieve certain tasks

53:02with high accuracy, doesn't necessarily mean

53:05that it has to understand it the same way as we understand.

53:09In some ways, it's even naive to request

53:11because you have so many other sources of information

53:14that are absent when you are training your system.

53:17So it's okay.

53:19Is it delivered?

53:20And I would tell you one application

53:21that is really fascinating.

53:22In 97, when it came to ACL, there were some papers

53:25on machine translation.

53:25They were like primitive.

53:27Like people were trying really, really simple.

53:31And the feeling, my feeling was that, you know,

53:34to make real machine translation system,

53:36it's like to fly at the moon and build a house there

53:39and the garden and live happily ever after.

53:41I mean, it's like impossible.

53:42I never could imagine that within, you know, 10 years,

53:46we would already see the system working.

53:48And now, you know, nobody is even surprised

53:51to utilize the system on daily basis.

53:54So this was like a huge, huge progress,

53:56saying that people for very long time

53:57tried to solve using other mechanisms.

54:00And they were unable to solve it.

54:03That's why coming back to your question about biology,

54:06that, you know, in linguistics, people try to go this way

54:10and try to write the syntactic trees

54:13and try to abstract it and to find the right representation.

54:17And, you know, they couldn't get very far

54:22with this understanding while these models using,

54:26you know, other sources actually capable

54:29to make a lot of progress.

54:31Now, I'm not naive to think

54:33that we are in this paradise space in NLP.

54:36And sure as you know,

54:38that when we slightly change the domain

54:40and when we decrease the amount of training,

54:42it can do like really bizarre and funny thing.

54:44But I think it's just a matter

54:46of improving generalization capacity,

54:48which is just a technical question.

54:51Wow, so that's the question.

54:54How much of language understanding can be solved

54:57with deep neural networks?

54:59In your intuition, I mean, it's unknown, I suppose.

55:03But as we start to creep towards romantic notions

55:07of the spirit of the Turing test

55:10and conversation and dialogue

55:14and something that maybe to me or to us,

55:18so the humans feels like it needs real understanding.

55:21How much can that be achieved

55:23with these neural networks or statistical methods?

55:27So I guess I am very much driven by the outcomes.

55:33Can we achieve the performance

55:35which would be satisfactory for us for different tasks?

55:40Now, if you again look at machine translation system,

55:43which are trained on large amounts of data,

55:46they really can do a remarkable job

55:48relatively to where they've been a few years ago.

55:51And if you project into the future,

55:54if it will be the same speed of improvement, you know,

55:59this is great.

56:00Now, does it bother me

56:01that it's not doing the same translation as we are doing?

56:04Now, if you go to cognitive science,

56:06we still don't really understand what we are doing.

56:10I mean, there are a lot of theories

56:11and there's obviously a lot of progress and studying,

56:13but our understanding what exactly goes on in our brains

56:17when we process language is still not crystal clear

56:21and precise that we can translate it into machines.

56:25What does bother me is that, you know,

56:29again, that machines can be extremely brittle

56:31when you go out of your comfort zone

56:33of when there is a distributional shift

56:36between training and testing.

56:37And it have been years and years,

56:39every year when I teach an LP class,

56:41now show them some examples of translation

56:43from some newspaper in Hebrew or whatever, it was perfect.

56:47And then I have a recipe that Tomi Yakel's system

56:51sent me a while ago and it was written in Finnish

56:53of Karelian pies.

56:55And it's just a terrible translation.

56:59You cannot understand anything what it does.

57:01It's not like some syntactic mistakes, it's just terrible.

57:04And year after year, I tried and will translate

57:07and year after year, it does this terrible work

57:08because I guess, you know, the recipes

§07Transcript · 57:10–1:06:27

57:10are not a big part of their training repertoire.

57:14So, but in terms of outcomes, that's a really clean,

57:19good way to look at it.

57:21I guess the question I was asking is,

57:24do you think, imagine a future,

57:27do you think the current approaches can pass

57:30the Turing test in the way,

57:34in the best possible formulation of the Turing test?

57:37Which is, would you wanna have a conversation

57:39with a neural network for an hour?

57:42Oh God, no, no, there are not that many people

57:45that I would want to talk for an hour, but.

57:48There are some people in this world, alive or not,

57:51that you would like to talk to for an hour.

57:53Could a neural network achieve that outcome?

57:56So I think it would be really hard to create

57:58a successful training set, which would enable it

58:02to have a conversation, a contextual conversation

58:04for an hour.

58:05Do you think it's a problem of data, perhaps?

58:08I think in some ways it's not a problem of data,

58:09it's a problem both of data and the problem of

58:13the way we're training our systems,

58:15their ability to truly, to generalize,

58:18to be very compositional.

58:19In some ways it's limited in the current capacity,

58:23at least we can translate well,

58:27we can find information well, we can extract information.

58:32So there are many capacities in which it's doing very well.

58:35And you can ask me, would you trust the machine

58:38to translate for you and use it as a source?

58:39I would say absolutely, especially if we're talking about

58:42newspaper data or other data which is in the realm

58:45of its own training set, I would say yes.

58:48But having conversations with the machine,

58:52it's not something that I would choose to do.

58:56But I would tell you something, talking about Turing tests

58:59and about all this kind of ELISA conversations,

59:02I remember visiting Tencent in China

59:05and they have this chat board and they claim

59:07there is really humongous amount of the local population

59:10which for hours talks to the chat board.

59:12To me it was, I cannot believe it,

59:15but apparently it's documented that there are some people

59:18who enjoy this conversation.

59:20And it brought to me another MIT story

59:24about ELISA and Weisenbaum.

59:26I don't know if you're familiar with the story.

59:29So Weisenbaum was a professor at MIT

59:31and when he developed this ELISA,

59:32which was just doing string matching,

59:34very trivial, like restating of what you said

59:38with very few rules, no syntax.

59:41Apparently there were secretaries at MIT

59:43that would sit for hours and converse with this trivial thing

59:48and at the time there was no beautiful interfaces

59:50so you actually need to go through the pain

59:51of communicating.

59:53And Weisenbaum himself was so horrified by this phenomenon

59:56that people can believe enough to the machine

59:59that you just need to give them the hint

60:00that machine understands you and you can complete the rest

60:03that he kind of stopped this research

60:05and went into kind of trying to understand

60:08what this artificial intelligence can do to our brains.

60:12So my point is, you know,

60:14how much, it's not how good is the technology,

60:19it's how ready we are to believe

60:22that it delivers the goods that we are trying to get.

60:25That's a really beautiful way to put it.

60:27I, by the way, I'm not horrified by that possibility,

60:29but inspired by it because,

60:33I mean, human connection,

60:35whether it's through language or through love,

60:39it seems like it's very amenable to machine learning

60:44and the rest is just challenges of psychology.

60:49Like you said, the secretaries who enjoy spending hours.

60:52I would say I would describe most of our lives

60:55as enjoying spending hours with those we love

60:58for very silly reasons.

61:00All we're doing is keyword matching as well.

61:02So I'm not sure how much intelligence

61:05we exhibit to each other with the people we love

61:08that we're close with.

61:09So it's a very interesting point

61:12of what it means to pass the Turing test with language.

61:16I think you're right.

61:16In terms of conversation,

61:18I think machine translation

61:21has very clear performance and improvement, right?

61:24What it means to have a fulfilling conversation

61:28is very person dependent and context dependent

61:32and so on.

61:33That's, yeah, it's very well put.

61:36But in your view, what's a benchmark in natural language,

61:40a test that's just out of reach right now,

61:43but we might be able to, that's exciting.

61:46Is it in perfecting machine translation

61:49or is there other, is it summarization?

61:51What's out there just out of reach?

61:52I think it goes across specific application.

61:55It's more about the ability to learn from few examples

61:59for real, what we call few short learning and all these cases

62:03because the way we publish these papers today,

62:05we say, if we have like naively, we get 55,

62:09but now we had a few example and we can move to 65.

62:12None of these methods

62:13actually are realistically doing anything useful.

62:15You cannot use them today.

62:18And the ability to be able to generalize and to move

62:25or to be autonomous in finding the data

62:28that you need to learn,

62:31to be able to perfect new tasks or new language,

62:35this is an area where I think we really need

62:39to move forward to and we are not yet there.

62:43Are you at all excited,

62:45curious by the possibility

62:46of creating human level intelligence?

62:49Is this, cause you've been very in your discussion.

62:52So if we look at oncology,

62:54you're trying to use machine learning to help the world

62:58in terms of alleviating suffering.

62:59If you look at natural language processing,

63:02you're focused on the outcomes of improving practical things

63:05like machine translation.

63:06But human level intelligence is a thing

63:09that our civilization has dreamed about creating,

63:13super human level intelligence.

63:15Do you think about this?

63:16Do you think it's at all within our reach?

63:20So as you said yourself, Elie,

63:22talking about how do you perceive

63:26our communications with each other,

63:28that we're matching keywords and certain behaviors

63:31and so on.

63:33So at the end, whenever one assesses,

63:36let's say relations with another person,

63:38you have separate kind of measurements and outcomes

63:41inside your head that determine

63:43what is the status of the relation.

63:45So one way, this is this classical level,

63:48what is the intelligence?

63:49Is it the fact that now we are gonna do the same way

63:51as human is doing,

63:52when we don't even understand what the human is doing?

63:55Or we now have an ability to deliver these outcomes,

63:59but not in one area, not in NLP,

64:01not just to translate or just to answer questions,

64:03but across many, many areas

64:05that we can achieve the functionalities

64:08that humans can achieve with their ability to learn

64:11and do other things.

64:12I think this is, and this we can actually measure

64:15how far we are.

64:17And that's what makes me excited that we,

64:21in my lifetime, at least so far what we've seen,

64:23it's like tremendous progress

64:25across these different functionalities.

64:28And I think it will be really exciting

64:32to see where we will be.

64:35And again, one way to think about it,

64:39there are machines which are improving their functionality.

64:41Another one is to think about us with our brains,

64:44which are imperfect,

64:46how they can be accelerated by this technology

64:51as it becomes stronger and stronger.

64:55Coming back to another book

64:57that I love, Flowers for Algernon.

65:01Have you read this book?

65:02Yes.

65:02So there is this point that the patient gets

65:05this miracle cure, which changes his brain.

65:07And all of a sudden they see life in a different way

65:11and can do certain things better,

65:13but certain things much worse.

65:14So you can imagine this kind of computer augmented cognition

65:22where it can bring you that now in the same way

65:24as the cars enable us to get to places

65:28where we've never been before,

65:30can we think differently?

65:31Can we think faster?

65:33And we already see a lot of it happening

65:36in how it impacts us,

65:38but I think we have a long way to go there.

65:42So that's sort of artificial intelligence

65:45and technology affecting our,

65:47augmenting our intelligence as humans.

65:50Yesterday, a company called Neuralink announced,

65:55they did this whole demonstration.

65:56I don't know if you saw it.

65:57It's, they demonstrated brain computer,

66:01brain machine interface,

66:02where there's like a sewing machine for the brain.

66:06Do you, you know, a lot of that is quite out there

66:11in terms of things that some people would say

66:14are impossible, but they're dreamers

66:16and want to engineer systems like that.

66:18Do you see, based on what you just said,

66:20a hope for that more direct interaction with the brain?

66:25I think there are different ways.

§08Transcript · 1:06:27–1:16:08

66:27One is a direct interaction with the brain.

66:29And again, there are lots of companies

66:30that work in this space

66:32and I think there will be a lot of developments.

66:35But I'm just thinking that many times

66:36we are not aware of our feelings,

66:39of motivation, what drives us.

66:41Like, let me give you a trivial example, our attention.

66:45There are a lot of studies that demonstrate

66:47that it takes a while to a person to understand

66:49that they are not attentive anymore.

66:51And we know that there are people

66:52who really have strong capacity to hold attention.

66:54There are other end of the spectrum people with ADD

66:57and other issues that they have problem

66:58to regulate their attention.

67:00Imagine to yourself that you have like a cognitive aid

67:03that just alerts you based on your gaze,

67:06that your attention is now not on what you are doing.

67:09And instead of writing a paper,

67:10you're now dreaming of what you're gonna do in the evening.

67:12So even this kind of simple measurement things,

67:16how they can change us.

67:17And I see it even in simple ways with myself.

67:22I have my zone app that I got in MIT gym.

67:26It kind of records, you know, how much did you run

67:28and you have some points

67:29and you can get some status, whatever.

67:32Like, I said, what is this ridiculous thing?

67:35Who would ever care about some status in some app?

67:38Guess what?

67:39So to maintain the status,

67:41you have to do set a number of points every month.

67:44And not only is that I do it every single month

67:48for the last 18 months,

67:50it went to the point that I was injured.

67:54And when I could run again,

67:58in two days, I did like some humongous amount of running

68:02just to complete the points.

68:04It was like really not safe.

68:05It was like, I'm not gonna lose my status

68:08because I want to get there.

68:10So you can already see that this direct measurement

68:13and the feedback is, you know,

68:15we're looking at video games

68:16and see why, you know, the addiction aspect of it,

68:18but you can imagine that the same idea can be expanded

68:21to many other areas of our life.

68:23When we really can get feedback

68:25and imagine in your case in relations,

68:29when we are doing keyword matching,

68:31imagine that the person who is generating the keywords,

68:36that person gets direct feedback

68:37before the whole thing explodes.

68:39Is it maybe at this happy point,

68:42we are going in the wrong direction.

68:44Maybe it will be really a behavior modifying moment.

68:48So yeah, it's a relationship management too.

68:51So yeah, that's a fascinating whole area

68:54of psychology actually as well,

68:56of seeing how our behavior has changed

68:58with basically all human relations now have

69:01other nonhuman entities helping us out.

69:06So you teach a large,

69:09a huge machine learning course here at MIT.

69:14I can ask you a million questions,

69:15but you've seen a lot of students.

69:17What ideas do students struggle with the most

69:20as they first enter this world of machine learning?

69:23Actually, this year was the first time

69:26I started teaching a small machine learning class.

69:28And it came as a result of what I saw

69:31in my big machine learning class that Tomi Yakel and I built

69:34maybe six years ago.

69:38What we've seen that as this area become more

69:40and more popular, more and more people at MIT

69:43want to take this class.

69:45And while we designed it for computer science majors,

69:48there were a lot of people who really are interested

69:50to learn it, but unfortunately,

69:52their background was not enabling them

69:55to do well in the class.

69:57And many of them associated machine learning

69:59with the word struggle and failure,

70:02primarily for non majors.

70:04And that's why we actually started a new class

70:06which we call machine learning from algorithms to modeling,

70:10which emphasizes more the modeling aspects of it

70:15and focuses on, it has majors and non majors.

70:20So we kind of try to extract the relevant parts

70:23and make it more accessible,

70:25because the fact that we're teaching 20 classifiers

70:27in standard machine learning class,

70:29it's really a big question to really need it.

70:32But it was interesting to see this

70:34from first generation of students,

70:36when they came back from their internships

70:39and from their jobs,

70:42what different and exciting things they can do.

70:45I would never think that you can even apply

70:47machine learning to, some of them are like matching,

70:50the relations and other things like variety.

70:53Everything is amenable as the machine learning.

70:56That actually brings up an interesting point

70:58of computer science in general.

71:00It almost seems, maybe I'm crazy,

71:03but it almost seems like everybody needs to learn

71:06how to program these days.

71:08If you're 20 years old, or if you're starting school,

71:11even if you're an English major,

71:14it seems like programming unlocks so much possibility

71:20in this world.

71:21So when you interacted with those non majors,

71:25is there skills that they were simply lacking at the time

71:30that you wish they had and that they learned

71:33in high school and so on?

71:34Like how should education change

71:37in this computerized world that we live in?

71:41I think because I knew that there is a Python component

71:44in the class, their Python skills were okay

71:47and the class isn't really heavy on programming.

71:49They primarily kind of add parts to the programs.

71:52I think it was more of the mathematical barriers

71:55and the class, again, with the design on the majors

71:58was using the notation, like big O for complexity

72:01and others, people who come from different backgrounds

72:04just don't have it in the lexical,

72:05so necessarily very challenging notion,

72:09but they were just not aware.

72:12So I think that kind of linear algebra and probability,

72:16the basics, the calculus, multivariate calculus,

72:19things that can help.

72:20What advice would you give to students

72:23interested in machine learning,

72:25interested, you've talked about detecting,

72:29curing cancer, drug design,

72:31if they want to get into that field, what should they do?

72:36Get into it and succeed as researchers

72:39and entrepreneurs.

72:43The first good piece of news is that right now

72:45there are lots of resources

72:47that are created at different levels

72:50and you can find online in your school classes

72:54which are more mathematical, more applied and so on.

72:57So you can find a kind of a preacher

73:01which preaches in your own language

73:02where you can enter the field

73:04and you can make many different types of contribution

73:06depending of what is your strengths.

73:10And the second point, I think it's really important

73:13to find some area which you really care about

73:18and it can motivate your learning

73:20and it can be for somebody curing cancer

73:22or doing self driving cars or whatever,

73:25but to find an area where there is data

73:29where you believe there are strong patterns

73:31and we should be doing it and we're still not doing it

73:33or you can do it better

73:35and just start there and see where it can bring you.

73:40So you've been very successful in many directions in life,

73:46but you also mentioned Flowers of Argonon.

73:51And I think I've read or listened to you mention somewhere

73:53that researchers often get lost

73:55in the details of their work.

73:56This is per our original discussion with cancer and so on

74:00and don't look at the bigger picture,

74:02bigger questions of meaning and so on.

74:05So let me ask you the impossible question

74:08of what's the meaning of this thing,

74:11of life, of your life, of research.

74:16Why do you think we descendant of great apes

74:21are here on this spinning ball?

74:26You know, I don't think that I have really a global answer.

74:30You know, maybe that's why I didn't go to humanities

74:33and I didn't take humanities classes in my undergrad.

74:39But the way I'm thinking about it,

74:43each one of us inside of them have their own set of,

74:48you know, things that we believe are important.

74:51And it just happens that we are busy

74:53with achieving various goals, busy listening to others

74:56and to kind of try to conform and to be part of the crowd,

75:00that we don't listen to that part.

75:04And, you know, we all should find some time to understand

75:09what is our own individual missions.

75:11And we may have very different missions

75:14and to make sure that while we are running 10,000 things,

75:18we are not, you know, missing out

75:21and we're putting all the resources to satisfy

75:26our own mission.

75:28And if I look over my time, when I was younger,

75:32most of these missions, you know,

75:35I was primarily driven by the external stimulus,

75:38you know, to achieve this or to be that.

75:41And now a lot of what I do is driven by really thinking

75:47what is important for me to achieve independently

75:51of the external recognition.

75:55And, you know, I don't mind to be viewed in certain ways.

76:01The most important thing for me is to be true to myself,

76:05to what I think is right.

76:07How long did it take?

§09Transcript · 1:16:08–1:17:28

76:08How hard was it to find the you that you have to be true to?

76:14So it takes time.

76:15And even now, sometimes, you know,

76:17the vanity and the triviality can take, you know.

76:20At MIT.

76:22Yeah, it can everywhere, you know,

76:25it's just the vanity at MIT is different,

76:26the vanity in different places,

76:28but we all have our piece of vanity.

76:30But I think actually for me, many times the place

76:38to get back to it is, you know, when I'm alone

76:43and also when I read.

76:45And I think by selecting the right books,

76:47you can get the right questions and learn from what you read.

76:54So, but again, it's not perfect.

76:58Like vanity sometimes dominates.

77:02Well, that's a beautiful way to end.

77:04Thank you so much for talking today.

77:06Thank you.

77:07That was fun.

77:08That was fun.

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