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American Dynamism (with Katherine Boyle)

第2022-06-06期2022-06-06English会员内容

嘉宾:Katherine Boyle

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§01An investment thesis beyond software

“American Dynamism” starts from a gap in venture investing: software has transformed consumer and enterprise businesses, yet education, housing, transportation, infrastructure, aerospace, and defense remain largely physical and difficult to modernize. These sectors matter because they shape daily life and national capacity, but their complexity makes them poor fits for the familiar venture playbook.

The obstacle is not a lack of opportunity. Entrenched interests, regulation, and physical complexity make companies in these sectors harder to build than pure software businesses. Their economics can look weak early, and they often require founders willing to accept technical risk and longer periods before returns arrive.

These companies go deeper down the J Curve.

SpaceX illustrates the pattern. For years, investors worried about whether the company could produce a return; early rockets failed, and the business model remained contested. The point is not that every hard-sector startup will succeed, but that early appearance is a poor proxy for the eventual value of infrastructure-heavy companies.

§02Reconnecting technology and government

The perceived distance between Silicon Valley and government is striking given the region’s roots in defense investment. Over time, venture firms learned to avoid government procurement because it looked slow and difficult. Yet technology companies already contribute to public functions, from work with NASA and intelligence agencies to services that reshape urban transportation.

Boyle’s case is that government increasingly needs private-sector software expertise. People use modern tools in their personal lives but encounter outdated systems at work, while many of the strongest software builders choose not to enter government. Working with public agencies is therefore both a business opportunity and a way to modernize capabilities that affect everyone.

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