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Francis Collins: National Institutes of Health (NIH)

第238期2021-11-05English

嘉宾:Francis Collins

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§01Transcript · 00:00–09:02

00:00The following is a conversation with Francis Collins,

00:02director of the NIH, the National Institutes of Health,

00:06appointed and reappointed to the role by three presidents,

00:10Obama, Trump, and Biden.

00:13He oversees 27 separate institutes and centers,

00:16including NIAID, which makes him Anthony Fauci's boss.

00:20At the NIH, Francis helped launch

00:23and led a huge number of projects

00:25that pushed the frontiers of science, health, and medicine,

00:29including one of my favorites, the BRAIN Initiative,

00:32that seeks to map the human brain

00:34and understand how the function arises

00:37from neural circuitry.

00:39Before the NIH, Francis led the Human Genome Project,

00:43one of the largest and most ambitious efforts

00:45in the history of science.

00:47Given all that, Francis is a humble, thoughtful, kind man.

00:52And because of this, to me,

00:54he's one of the best representatives of science in the world.

00:58He's a man of God,

00:59and yet also a friend of the late Christopher Hitchens,

01:03who called him, quote,

01:04"One of the greatest living Americans."

01:08This is the Lex Friedman Podcast.

01:10To support it,

01:11please check out our sponsors in the description.

01:13And now, here's my conversation with Francis Collins.

01:17Science at its best is a source of hope.

01:21So for me, it's been difficult to watch,

01:23as it has during the pandemic,

01:25become at times a source of division.

01:28What I would love to do in this conversation with you

01:30is touch some difficult topics

01:32and do so with empathy and humility

01:35so that we may begin to regain a sense of trust in science,

01:39and that it may once again become a source of hope.

01:41I hope that's okay with you.

01:43- I love the goal.

01:45- Let's start with some hard questions.

01:47You called for, quote,

01:49"Thorough, expert-driven, and objective inquiry

01:51"into the origins of COVID-19."

01:54So let me ask,

01:55is there a reasonable chance that COVID-19 leaked

01:58from a lab?

01:59- I can't exclude that.

02:01I think it's fairly unlikely.

02:04I wish we had more ability to be able to ask questions

02:07of the Chinese government

02:09and learn more about what kind of records

02:11might have been in the lab

02:13that we've never been able to see.

02:15But most likely, this was a natural origin of a virus,

02:19probably starting in a bat,

02:20perhaps traveling through some other intermediate,

02:23yet to be identified host,

02:25and finding its way into humans.

02:27- Is answering this question within the realm of science,

02:29do you think, will we ever know?

02:31- I think we might know if we find that intermediate host.

02:35And there has not yet been a thorough enough investigation

02:39to say that that's not going to happen.

02:41And remember, it takes a while to do this.

02:44With SARS, it was 14 years before we figured out

02:47it was the civet cat that was the intermediate host.

02:50With MERS, it was a little quicker

02:52to discover it was the camel.

02:54With SARS-CoV-2, there's been some looking,

02:56but especially now, with everything really tense

02:59between the US and China,

03:01if there's looking going on,

03:02we're not getting told about it.

03:05- Do you think it's a scientific question

03:06or a political question?

03:08- It's a scientific question,

03:09but it has political implications.

03:12- So the world is full of scientists

03:14that are working together,

03:16but in the political space,

03:17in the political science space, there's tensions.

03:21What is it like to do great science

03:23in a time of a pandemic when there's political tensions?

03:27- It's very unfortunate.

03:29Pasteur said science knows no one country.

03:34He was right about that.

03:35My whole career, in genetics especially,

03:39has depended upon international collaboration

03:42between scientists as a way

03:44to make discoveries, get things done.

03:46Scientists, by their nature,

03:48like to be involved in international collaborations.

03:52The Human Genome Project, for heaven's sake,

03:542,400 scientists in six countries working together,

03:58not worrying who was gonna get the credit,

04:00giving all the data away.

04:02I was the person who was supposed

04:03to keep all that coordinated.

04:04It was a wonderful experience.

04:07And that included China.

04:08That was sort of their first real entry

04:10into a big international, big science kind of project,

04:14and they did their part.

04:15It's very different now.

04:19- Continuing the line of difficult questions,

04:21especially difficult ethical questions.

04:26In 2014, US put a hold on gain-of-function research

04:30in response to a number of laboratory biosecurity incidents,

04:34including anthrax, smallpox, and influenza.

04:37In December 2017, NIH lifted this ban because, quote,

04:42"Gain-of-function research is important

04:44"in helping us identify, understand,

04:46"and develop strategies and effective countermeasures

04:49"against rapidly evolving pathogens

04:50"that pose a threat to public health."

04:53All difficult questions have arguments on both sides.

04:57Can you argue the pros and cons

04:59of gain-of-function research with viruses?

05:02- I can.

05:04And first, let me say this term, gain-of-function,

05:09is causing such confusion that I need to take a minute

05:12and just sort of talk about what the common scientific

05:16use of that term is and where it is very different

05:19when we're talking about the current oversight

05:22of potentially dangerous human pathogens.

05:25As you know, in science, we're doing gain-of-function

05:29experiments all the time.

05:31We support a lot of cancer immunotherapy at NIH.

05:36Right here in our clinical center,

05:37there are trials going on where people's immune cells

05:41are taken out of their body, treated with a genetic therapy

05:44that revs up their ability to discover the cancer

05:47that that patient currently has, maybe even at stage four,

05:50and then give them back as those little ninja warriors

05:54go after the cancer.

05:56And it sometimes works dramatically.

05:58That's gain-of-function.

06:00You gave that patient a gain in their immune function

06:02that may have saved their life.

06:04So we gotta be careful not to say,

06:05"Oh, gain-of-function is bad."

06:08Most of what we do in science that's good

06:11involves quite a bit of that.

06:14And we are all living with gains-of-function every day.

06:16I have a gain-of-function 'cause I'm wearing

06:17these eyeglasses, otherwise I would not be seeing you

06:21as clearly.

06:22I'm happy for that gain-of-function.

06:24So that's where a lot of confusion has happened.

06:27The kind of gain-of-function which is now subject

06:30to very rigorous and very carefully defined oversight

06:35is when you are working with an established human pathogen

06:38that is known to be potentially causing a pandemic,

06:42and you are enhancing or potentially enhancing

06:46its transmissibility or its virulence.

06:49We call that EPPP, Enhanced Potential Pandemic Pathogen.

06:54That requires this very stringent oversight,

07:01worked out over three years

07:03by the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity

07:08that needs to be looked at by a panel

07:11that goes well beyond NIH to decide,

07:13are the benefits worth the risks in that situation?

07:17Most of the time, it's not worth the risk.

07:21Only three times in the last three or four years

07:25have experiments been given permission to go forward.

07:28They were all on influenza.

07:29So I will argue that if you're worried

07:33about the next pandemic,

07:35the more you know about the coming enemy,

07:37the better chance you have to recognize

07:40when trouble is starting.

07:41And so if you can do it safely,

07:44studying influenza or coronaviruses like SARS, MERS,

07:48and SARS-CoV-2 would be a good thing

07:51to be able to know about,

07:53but you have to be able to do it safely

07:55because we all know lab accidents can happen.

07:59I mean, look at SARS where there have been lab accidents

08:02and people who have gotten sick as a result.

08:05We don't want to take that chance

08:06unless there's a compelling scientific reason.

08:08That's why we have this very stringent oversight.

08:13The experiments being done

08:15at the Wuhan Institute of Virology

08:17as a subaward to our grant to EcoHealth in New York

08:22did not meet that standard

08:24of requiring that kind of stringent oversight.

08:27I want to be really clear about that

08:29'cause there's been so much thrown around about it.

08:32Was it gain of function?

08:33Well, in the standard use of that term

08:36that you would use in science in general,

08:38you might say it was,

08:38but in the use of that term that applies

08:41to this very specific example

08:46of a potential pandemic pathogen, absolutely not.

08:50So nothing went on there that should not have happened

08:54based upon the oversight.

08:55There was an instance where the grantee institution

08:59failed to notify us about the result of an experiment

09:02that they were supposed to tell us

§02Transcript · 09:04–18:05

09:04where they mixed and matched some viral genomes

09:08and got a somewhat larger viral load as a result,

09:11but it was not EPPP.

09:13It was not getting into that zone

09:16that would have required this higher level of scrutiny.

09:19It was all bat viruses.

09:20These were not human pathogens.

09:22- So they didn't cross a threshold

09:25within that gray area that makes for an EPPP?

09:29- They did not.

09:30And anybody who's willing to take the time

09:33to look at what EPPP means and what those experiments were

09:37would have to agree with what I just said.

09:39- What is the biggest reason

09:40it didn't cross that threshold?

09:42Is it because it wasn't jumping to humans?

09:45Is it because it did not have a sufficient increase

09:48in virulence or transmissibility?

09:49What's your sense?

09:51- EPPP only applies to agents

09:54that are known human pathogens of pandemic potential.

10:00These were all bat viruses derived in the wild,

10:04not shown to be infectious to humans.

10:07Just looking at what happened

10:08if you took four different bat viruses

10:10and you tried moving the spike protein gene

10:13from one into one of the others

10:15to see whether it would bind better to the ACE2 receptor.

10:18That doesn't get across that threshold.

10:21And let me also say,

10:22for those who are trying to connect the dots here,

10:25which is the most troubling part of this,

10:27and say, well, this is how SARS-CoV-2 got started,

10:31that is absolutely demonstrably false.

10:34These bat viruses that were being studied

10:37had only about 80% similarity in their genomes

10:41to SARS-CoV-2.

10:42They were like decades away in evolutionary terms.

10:45And it is really irresponsible for people

10:48to claim otherwise.

10:49- Speaking of people who claim otherwise,

10:54Rand Paul, what do you make of the battle of words

10:58between Senator Rand Paul and Dr. Anthony Fauci

11:01over this particular point?

11:03- I don't want to talk about specific members of Congress,

11:07but I will say it's really unfortunate

11:09that Tony Fauci, who is the epitome

11:12of a dedicated public servant,

11:14has now somehow been targeted for political reasons

11:19as somebody that certain figures are trying to discredit,

11:23perhaps to try to distract from their own failings.

11:26This never should have happened.

11:28Here's a person who's dedicated his whole life

11:31to trying to prevent illnesses from infectious diseases,

11:35including HIV, in the 1980s and '90s,

11:38and now probably the most knowledgeable

11:42infectious disease physician in the world,

11:45and also a really good communicator,

11:48is out there telling the truth

11:50about where we are with SARS-CoV-2

11:52to certain political figures who don't want to hear it,

11:55and who are therefore determined to discredit him,

11:58and that is disgraceful.

12:00- So with politicians,

12:01they often play games with black and white.

12:04They try to sort of use the gray areas of science

12:09and then paint their own picture.

12:12But I have a question about the gray areas of science.

12:14So like you mentioned, gain of function is a term

12:18that has very specific scientific meaning,

12:20but it also has a more general term.

12:23And it's very possible to argue that the,

12:26not to argue, not the way politicians argue,

12:28but just as human beings and scientists,

12:31that there was a gain of function achieved

12:34at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,

12:37but it didn't cross a threshold.

12:39I mean, there's a, it's a, but it could have too.

12:43So here's the thing.

12:44When you do these kinds of experiments,

12:47unexpected results may be achieved,

12:50and that's the gray area of science.

12:52You're taking risks with such experiments.

12:55And I am very uncomfortable that we can't discuss

13:00the uncertainty in the gray area of this.

13:03- Oh, I'm comfortable discussing the gray area.

13:06What I'm uncomfortable with is people deciding

13:08to define for themselves what that threshold is

13:12based on sort of some political argument.

13:14The threshold was very explicitly laid out.

13:18Everybody agreed to that in the basis

13:21of this three years of deliberation.

13:23So that's what it is.

13:24If that threshold needs to be reconsidered,

13:27let's reconsider it, but let's not try to take

13:30an experiment that's already been done

13:32and decide that the threshold isn't what it was,

13:35'cause that really is doing a disservice

13:37to the whole process.

13:38- I wish there was a discussion,

13:40even in response to Rand Paul,

13:43and I know we're not talking about specific senators,

13:45but just that particular case, I'm saying stuff here.

13:48I wish there was an opportunity to talk about,

13:51given the current threshold, this is not gain of function,

13:54but maybe we need to reconsider the threshold

13:56and have an actual, that's an opportunity

13:58for a discussion about the ethics of gain of function.

14:01You said that there was three studies

14:03that passed that threshold with influenza.

14:05That's a fascinating human question,

14:07scientific question about ethics,

14:09because like you said, there's pros and cons.

14:13You're taking risks here to prevent

14:18horribly destructive viruses in the future,

14:21but you also are risking creating

14:25such viruses in the future.

14:26With nuclear weapons and nuclear energy,

14:29nuclear energy promises a lot of positive effects,

14:35and yet you're taking risks here.

14:37With mutually assured destruction,

14:39nations possessing nuclear weapons.

14:41- Oh my.

14:42I hope we're not going there.

14:45- Well, we're not, but a lot of people argue

14:47that that's the reason we've,

14:49nuclear weapons is the reason we've prevented world wars,

14:52and yet they also have the risk of starting world wars.

14:56And this is what we have to be honest about

14:59with the benefits and risks of science,

15:01that you have to make that calculation.

15:04What are the pros and what are the cons?

15:06- I'm totally with you, but I want to reassure you, Lex,

15:09that this is not an issue that's been ignored.

15:12- Yes.

15:12- That this issue about the kind of gain of function

15:15that might result in a serious human pathogen

15:18has been front and center in many deliberations

15:21for a decade or more,

15:23involved a lot of my time along the way, by the way,

15:26and has been discussed publicly on multiple occasions,

15:29including two major meetings

15:31of the National Academy of Sciences,

15:34getting input from everybody,

15:35and ultimately arriving at our current framework.

15:38Now, we actually, back in January of 2020,

15:43just before COVID-19 changed everything,

15:46had planned and even charged

15:48that same National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity

15:53to reconvene and look at the current framework and say,

15:57"Do we have it right?

15:58"Let's look at the experience over those three years

16:01"and say, is the threshold too easy, too hard?

16:05"Do we need to reconsider it?

16:06"Let's look at the experience."

16:07COVID came along, the members of the board said,

16:10"Please, we're all infectious disease experts.

16:12"We don't have time for this right now,

16:14"but I think the time is right to do this."

16:16I'm totally supportive of that,

16:18and that should be just as public a discussion

16:20as you can imagine about what are the benefits and the risks.

16:23And if somebody decided, ultimately,

16:25this came together and said,

16:26"We just shouldn't be doing these experiments

16:28"under any circumstances,"

16:30if that was the conclusion,

16:31well, that would be the conclusion,

16:32but it hasn't been so far.

16:34- If we can briefly look out

16:36into the next hundred years on this.

16:40I apologize for the existential questions,

16:44but it seems obvious to me

16:47that as gain-of-function type of research and development

16:52becomes easier and cheaper,

16:54it will become greater and greater risk.

16:58So if it doesn't no longer need to be contained

17:01within laboratories of high security,

17:04it feels like this is one of the greatest threats

17:08facing human civilization.

17:10Do you worry that at some point in the future,

17:12a leaked man-made virus

17:14may destroy most of human civilization?

17:18- I do worry about the risks.

17:20And at the moment where we have the greatest control,

17:24the greatest oversight,

17:26is when this is federally funded research.

17:29But as you're alluding,

17:30there's no reason to imagine that's the only place

17:33that this kind of activity would go on.

17:35If there was an evil source that wished to create a virus

17:40that was highly pathogenic in their garage,

17:43the technology does get easier.

17:46And there is no international oversight about this either

17:50that you could say has the same stringency

17:52as what we have in the United States.

17:54So yes, that is a concern.

17:58It would take a seriously deranged group or person

18:03to undertake this on purpose,

18:05given the likelihood that they too would go down.

§03Transcript · 18:08–27:17

18:08We don't imagine there are going to be bioweapons

18:13that only kill your enemies and don't kill you.

18:15Sorry, we're too much alike for that to work.

18:18So I don't see it as an imminent risk.

18:23There's lots of scary novels and movies written about it,

18:27but I do think it's something we have to consider.

18:30What are all the things that ought to be watched?

18:32You may not know that if somebody is ordering

18:36a particular oligonucleotide from one of the main suppliers

18:41and it happens to match smallpox, they're gonna get caught.

18:45So there is effort underway to try to track

18:50any nefarious actions that might be going on.

18:52- In the United States or internationally?

18:54Is there an international collaboration

18:55of trying to track this stuff?

18:57- There is some.

18:58I wish it were stronger.

19:00- This is a general issue, Lex, in terms of,

19:03do we have a mechanism, particularly when it comes

19:05to ethical issues, to be able to decide what's allowable

19:09and what's not and enforce it?

19:11I mean, look where we are with germline genome editing

19:14for humans, for instance.

19:15There is no enforcement mechanism.

19:17There's just bully pulpits and governments

19:19that get to decide for themselves.

19:21- So you talked about evil.

19:23What about incompetence?

19:24Does that worry you?

19:25I was born in the Soviet Union.

19:28My dad, a physicist, worked at Chernobyl.

19:31That comes to mind.

19:32That wasn't evil.

19:33That was, I don't know what word you wanna put it.

19:36Maybe incompetence is too harsh.

19:38Maybe it's the inherent incompetence of bureaucracy.

19:40I don't know.

19:41But for whatever reason, there was an accident.

19:43Does that worry you?

19:45- Of course it does.

19:46We know that SARS, for instance, did manage to leak

19:50out of a lab in China two or three times,

19:53and at least in some instances, people died.

19:55Unfortunately, quickly contained.

19:57All one can do in that circumstance,

20:00because you need to study the virus and understand it

20:04in order to keep it from causing a broader pandemic,

20:07but you need to insist upon the kind of biosecurity,

20:11the BSL two, three, and four framework

20:14under which those experiments have to be done.

20:17And certainly at NIH, we're extremely rigorous about that,

20:20but you can't count on every human being

20:23to always do exactly what they're supposed to.

20:26So there's a risk there, which is another reason

20:28why if we're contemplating supporting research

20:32on pathogens that might be the next pandemic,

20:35you have to factor that in,

20:36not just whether people are gonna do something

20:39that we couldn't have predicted,

20:40where all of a sudden they created a virus

20:42that's much worse without knowing they were gonna do that,

20:44but also just having an accident.

20:46That's in the mix when those estimates are done

20:49about whether the risk is worth it or not.

20:53- Continuing on line of difficult questions.

20:56(laughing)

20:57- We're gonna get to fun stuff after a while.

20:58- We will soon, I promise.

21:00You are the director of the NIH.

21:06You are Dr. Anthony Fauci's, technically his boss.

21:11- Yep.

21:12- You have stood behind him.

21:14You have supported him,

21:16just like you did already in this conversation.

21:18It is painful for me to see division and distrust,

21:21but many people in politics and elsewhere

21:25have called for Anthony Fauci to be fired.

21:27When there's such calls of distrust in public

21:31about a leader like Anthony Fauci,

21:33who should garner trust, do you think he should be fired?

21:37- Absolutely not.

21:39To do so would be basically to give the opportunity

21:45for those who wanna make up stories about anybody

21:50to destroy them.

21:51There is nothing in the ways in which Tony Fauci

21:55has been targeted that is based upon truth.

21:58How could we then accept those cries for his firing

22:04as having legitimacy?

22:07It's a circular argument.

22:08They've decided they don't like Tony,

22:10so they make up stuff and they twist comments

22:13that he's made about things like gain of function,

22:15where he's referring to the very specific gain of function

22:19that's covered by this policy.

22:21And they're trying to say he lied to the Congress.

22:24That's simply not true.

22:26They don't like the fact that Tony changes

22:28the medical recommendations about what to do with COVID-19

22:33over the space of more than a year.

22:35And they call that flip-flopping and you can't trust the guy

22:37'cause he says one thing last year and one thing this year.

22:40Well, the science has changed.

22:42Delta variant has changed everything.

22:44You don't want him to be saying the same thing

22:47he did a year ago.

22:48That would be wrong now.

22:49It was the best we could do then.

22:50People don't understand that

22:52or else they don't want to understand that.

22:54So when you basically whip up a largely political argument

22:59against a scientist and hammer at it over and over again

23:03to the point where he now has to have 24/7 security

23:06to protect him against people

23:08who really want to do violence to him,

23:10for that to be a reason to say that then he should be fired

23:13is to hand the evil forces the victory.

23:17I will not do that.

23:19(sighs)

23:21- Yet there's something difficult

23:23I'm going to try to express to you.

23:26So it may be your guitar playing.

23:28It may be something else, but there's a humility to you.

23:33It may be because you're a man of God.

23:36There's a humility to you that garners trust.

23:41And when you're in a leadership position,

23:47representing science,

23:49especially in catastrophic events like the pandemic,

23:52it feels like as a leader,

23:55you have to go far above and beyond your usual duties.

24:00And I think there's no question

24:02that Anthony Fauci has delivered on his duties,

24:06but it feels like he needs to go above

24:09as a science communicator.

24:11And if there's a large number of people

24:13that are distrusting him,

24:17it's also his responsibility to garner their trust,

24:20to gain their trust.

24:22As a person who's the face of science,

24:26are you torn on this?

24:28The responsibility of Anthony Fauci, of yourself,

24:31to represent science,

24:33not just the communication of advising what should be done,

24:37but giving people hope, giving people trust in science,

24:42and alleviating division.

24:45Do you think that's also a responsibility of a leader,

24:48or is that unfair to ask?

24:49- I think the best way you give people trust

24:52is to tell them the truth.

24:54And so they recognize that when you're sharing information,

24:57it's the best you've got at that point.

24:59And Tony Fauci does that at every moment.

25:02I don't think him expressing more humility

25:06would change the fact that they're looking for a target

25:09of somebody to blame,

25:11to basically distract people

25:13from the failings of their own political party.

25:16Maybe I'm less targeted, not because of a difference

25:20in the way in which I convey the information,

25:23I'm less visible.

25:24If Tony were out of the scene and I was placed in that role,

25:28I'd probably be seeing a ratcheting up

25:31of that same targeting.

25:33- I would like to believe that if Tony Fauci said

25:39that when I originally made recommendations

25:42not to wear masks,

25:44that was given on our best available data,

25:47and now we know that is a mistake.

25:50So admit with humility that there's an error.

25:53That's not actually correct,

25:56but that's a statement of humility.

25:59And I would like to believe, despite the attacks,

26:04he would win a lot of people over with that.

26:06So a lot of people, as you're saying,

26:09would use that, see that, here we go,

26:11here's that Dr. Anthony Fauci making mistakes.

26:15How can we trust him on anything?

26:16I believe if he was,

26:18that public display of humility to say that I made an error,

26:25that would win a lot of people over.

26:28That's kind of my sense,

26:31to face the fire of the attacks on politics,

26:34like politicians will attack no matter what.

26:37But the question is the people,

26:40to win over the people.

26:41The biggest concern I've had

26:44is that there was this distrust of science

26:47that's been brewing.

26:49And maybe you can correct me,

26:51but I'm a little bit unwilling to fully blame

26:54the politicians,

26:55'cause politicians play their games no matter what.

26:58It just feels like this was an opportunity

27:02to inspire people with the power of science.

27:05The development of the vaccines,

27:07no matter what you think of those vaccines,

27:09is one of the greatest accomplishments

27:11in the history of science.

27:12- It is indeed.

27:13- And the fact that that's not inspiring,

27:17listen, I host a podcast.

§04Transcript · 27:18–37:04

27:18Whenever I say positive stuff about the vaccine,

27:21I get to hear a lot of different opinions.

27:23- I bet you do.

27:24- The fact that I do is a big problem to me,

27:28because it's an incredible,

27:30an incredible accomplishment of science.

27:33And so I'm sorry,

27:36but I have to put responsibility on the leaders,

27:40even if it's not their mistakes.

27:42That's what the leadership is.

27:43That's what leadership is.

27:44You take responsibility for the situation.

27:47I wonder if there's something

27:48that could have been done better

27:50to give people hope

27:54that science will save us

27:55as opposed to science will divide us.

27:58- I think you have more confidence

28:03in the ability to get beyond our current divisions

28:06than I do after seeing just how deep

28:09and dark they have become.

28:12Tony Fauci has said multiple times

28:14the recommendation about not wearing masks

28:17was for two reasons,

28:19a shortage of masks, which were needed in hospitals,

28:22and a lack of realization early

28:25in the course of the epidemic

28:27that this was a virus

28:28that could heavily infect asymptomatic people.

28:33Has that changed?

28:35He changed.

28:36Now, did he make an error?

28:37No, he was making a judgment

28:39based on the data available at the time,

28:41but he certainly made that clear over and over again.

28:45It has not stopped those who would like to demonize him

28:48from saying, "Well, he just flip-flopped.

28:50"You can't trust a guy.

28:52"He says one thing today and one thing tomorrow."

28:54- Well, masks is a tricky one.

28:58So I'm actually-- - It is a tricky one.

29:00- Early on, I'm a co-author on a paper,

29:02one of many, but this was a survey paper

29:04overlooking the evidence.

29:08It's a summary of the evidence we have

29:10for the effectiveness of masks.

29:12It seems that it's difficult

29:15to do rigorous scientific study on masks.

29:18- It is difficult.

29:19- There's a lot of philosophical and ethical questions

29:22I want to ask you.

29:22Well, within this,

29:24it's back to your words and Anthony Fauci's words.

29:30When you're dealing with so much uncertainty

29:33and so much potential uncertainty

29:36about how catastrophic this virus is in the early days,

29:39and knowing that each word you say may create panic,

29:44how do you communicate science with the world?

29:48It's a philosophical, it's an ethical,

29:53it's a practical question.

29:55There was a discussion about masks a century ago

29:59and that too led to panic.

30:01So, I mean, I'm trying to put myself in your mind

30:08and the mind of Anthony Fauci in those early days,

30:10knowing that there's limited supply of masks.

30:13Like, what do you say?

30:15Do you fully convey the uncertainty of the situation,

30:18of the challenges of the supply chain?

30:22Or do you say that masks don't work?

30:26That's a complicated calculation.

30:29How do you make that calculation?

30:31- It is a complicated calculation.

30:35As a scientist, your temptation would be

30:39to give a full brain dump of all the details

30:43of the information about what's known and what isn't known

30:45and what experiments need to be done.

30:47Most of the time, that's not gonna play well

30:51in a soundbite on the evening news.

30:53So you have to kind of distill it down to a recommendation

30:56that is the best you can do at that time

30:58with the information you've got.

31:00- So you're a man of God.

31:03And we'll return to that to talk about

31:05some also unanswerable philosophical questions.

31:09But first, let's linger on the vaccine

31:13because in the religious, in the Christian community,

31:16there was some hesitancy with the vaccine.

31:18- Still is.

31:19- Still is.

31:20There's a lot of data showing high efficacy

31:24and safety of vaccines, of COVID vaccines,

31:27but still they are far from perfect as all vaccines are.

31:31Can you empathize with people who are hesitant

31:33to take the COVID vaccine

31:35or to have their children take the COVID vaccine?

31:38- I can totally empathize,

31:41especially when people are barraged

31:43by conflicting information coming at them

31:45from all kinds of directions.

31:47I've spent a lot of my time in the last year

31:50trying to figure out how to do a better job of listening

31:54because I think we have all got the risk

31:58of assuming we know the basis for somebody's hesitancy.

32:03And that often doesn't turn out to be what you thought.

32:07And the variety of reasons is quite broad.

32:11I think a big concern is just this sense of uncertainty

32:16about whether this was done too fast

32:19and that corners were cut.

32:20And there are good answers to that.

32:23Along with that, a sense that maybe this vaccine

32:28will have long-term effects that we won't know about

32:30for years to come.

32:32And one can say that hasn't been seen with other vaccines.

32:35And there's no particular reason to think

32:37this one's going to be different

32:38than the dozens of others that we have experience with.

32:41But you can't absolutely say,

32:43no, there's no chance of that.

32:46So it does come down to listening

32:49and then trying in a fashion that doesn't convey a message

32:54that you're smarter than the person you're talking to

32:58'cause that isn't gonna help

32:59to really address what the substance is of the concerns.

33:03But my heart goes out to so many people

33:07who are fearful about this because of all the information

33:11that has been dumped on them.

33:14Some of it by politicians, a lot of it by the internet,

33:18some of it by parts of the media

33:20that seem to take pleasure in stirring up this kind of fear

33:25for their own reasons.

33:29And that is shameful.

33:31I'm really sympathetic with the people

33:34who are confused and fearful.

33:36I am not sympathetic with people

33:38who are distributing information that's demonstrably false

33:41and continue to do so.

33:43They're taking lives.

33:45I didn't realize how strong that sector of disinformation

33:50would be.

33:53And it's been in many ways more effective

33:56than the means of spreading the truth.

33:58This is gonna take us into another place.

34:02But Lex, if there's something I'm really worried about

34:06in this country, and it's not just this country,

34:08but it's the one I live in,

34:10is that we have another epidemic besides COVID-19,

34:14and it's an epidemic of the loss of the anchor of truth.

34:18The truth as a means of making decisions,

34:23truth as a means of figuring out

34:25how to wrestle with a question like,

34:28should I get this vaccine for myself or my children,

34:32seems to have lost its primacy.

34:34And instead, it's an opinion of somebody

34:38who expressed it very strongly,

34:42or some Facebook post that I read two hours ago.

34:46And for those to become substitutes for objective truth,

34:52not just, of course, for vaccines,

34:56but for many other issues,

34:58like was the 2020 election actually fair?

35:01This worries me deeply.

35:05It's bad enough to have polarization and divisions,

35:08but to have no way of resolving those

35:11by actually saying, okay, what's true here,

35:13makes me very worried about the path we're on.

35:17And I'm usually an optimist.

35:18- Well, to give you an optimistic angle on this,

35:22I actually think that this sense

35:26that there's no one place for truth

35:29is just a thing that will inspire leaders

35:33and science communicators to speak,

35:35not from a place of authority,

35:37but from a place of humility.

35:39I think it's just challenging people

35:41to communicate in a new way, to be listeners first.

35:45I think the problem isn't that

35:47there's a lot of misinformation.

35:49I think that people,

35:54the internet and the world are distrustful

36:00of people who speak as if they possess the truth

36:04with an authoritarian kind of tone,

36:08which was, I think, defining

36:10for what science was in the 20th century.

36:12I just think it has to sound different in the 21st.

36:15In the battle of ideas, I think humility and love wins.

36:21And that's how science wins,

36:24not through having quote-unquote truth.

36:27'Cause now everybody can just say, "I have the truth."

36:30I think you have to speak, like I said,

36:34from humility, not authority.

36:35And so it just challenges our leaders to go back

36:39and learn to be, pardon my French, less assholes

36:43and more kind.

36:45And like you said, to listen,

36:47to listen to the experiences of people that are good people,

36:51not the ones who are trying to manipulate the system

36:53or play a game and so on,

36:55but real people who are just afraid of uncertainty,

36:59of hurting those they loved and so on.

37:02So I think it's just an opportunity for leaders

37:04to go back and take a class on effective communication.

§05Transcript · 37:07–46:46

37:07- I'm with you on shifting more from where we are

37:13to humility and love.

37:14That's gotta be the right answer.

37:15That's very biblical, by the way.

37:17- We'll get there.

37:19I have to bring up Joe Rogan.

37:22I don't know if you know who he is.

37:24- I do.

37:24- He's a podcaster, comedian, fighting commentator,

37:27and my now friend.

37:30- And Ivermectin believer too.

37:32- Yes, that is the question I have to ask you about.

37:35He has gotten some flack in the mainstream media

37:39for not getting vaccinated.

37:40And when he got COVID recently,

37:42taking Ivermectin as part of a cocktail of treatments.

37:46The NIH actually has a nice page on Ivermectin saying,

37:50quote, "There's insufficient evidence to recommend

37:53either for or against the use of Ivermectin

37:57for the treatment of COVID-19.

37:59Results from adequately powered, well-designed,

38:02and well-conducted clinical trials are needed

38:04to provide more specific evidence-based guidance

38:07on the role of Ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19."

38:11So let me ask, why do you think there has been

38:14so much attack on Joe Rogan and anyone else

38:18that's talking about Ivermectin

38:20when there's insufficient evidence for or against?

38:24- Well, let's unpack that.

38:26First of all, I think the concerns about Joe

38:28are not limited to his taking Ivermectin.

38:32Much more seriously, his being fairly publicly negative

38:35about vaccines at a time where people are dying.

38:39700,000 people have died from COVID-19.

38:43Estimates by Kaiser are at least 100,000 of those

38:47were unnecessary deaths of unvaccinated people.

38:50And for Joe to promote that further,

38:52even as this pandemic rages through our population,

38:57is simply irresponsible.

39:00So yeah, the Ivermectin is just one other twist.

39:03Obviously, Ivermectin has been controversial

39:05for months and months.

39:07The reason that it got particular attention

39:10is because of the way in which it seemed

39:12to have captured the imagination of a lot of people,

39:16and to the point where they were taking doses

39:18that were intended for livestock.

39:20And some of them got pretty sick as a result

39:23from overdosing on this stuff.

39:25That was not good judgment.

39:26The drug itself remains uncertain.

39:31There's a recent review that looks at all of the studies

39:35of Ivermectin and basically concludes

39:38that it probably doesn't work.

39:40We are running a study right now.

39:42I looked at that data this morning

39:44in a trial called ACTIV6, which is one of the ones

39:48that my public-private partnership is running.

39:51We're up to about 400 patients who've been randomized

39:53to Ivermectin or placebo, and should know,

39:57perhaps as soon as a month from now,

39:59in a very carefully controlled trial,

40:01did it help or did it not?

40:03So there will be an answer.

40:06Coming back to Joe, again, I don't think,

40:09the fact that he took Ivermectin,

40:11hoping it might work, is that big a knock against him.

40:14It's more the conveying of, we don't trust what science says,

40:19which is vaccines are gonna save your life.

40:21We're gonna trust what's on the internet

40:22that says Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine

40:25really do work, even though the scientific community

40:27says probably not.

40:28- So let me push back on that a little bit.

40:31So he doesn't say, let's not listen to science.

40:35He doesn't say don't get vaccinated.

40:38He says it's okay to ask questions.

40:44- I'm okay with that.

40:44- How risky is the vaccine for certain populations?

40:48What are the benefits and risks?

40:51There's other friends of Joe and friends of mine,

40:55like Sam Harris, who says, if you look at the data,

40:59it's obvious that the benefits outweigh the risks.

41:03And what Joe says is, yes,

41:05but let's still openly talk about risks.

41:09And he often brings up anecdotal evidence

41:12of people who've had highly negative effects from vaccines.

41:17Science is not done with anecdotal evidence.

41:20And so you could infer a lot of stuff

41:23from the way he expresses it,

41:24but he also communicates a lot of interesting questions.

41:27And that's something maybe you can comment on is,

41:31there's certain groups that are healthy.

41:34They're younger, they exercise a lot,

41:39they get nutrition and all those kinds of things.

41:43He shows skepticism on whether it's so obvious

41:48that they should get vaccinated.

41:50And the same is he makes this,

41:52he kind of presents the same kind of skepticism for kids,

41:57for young kids.

41:58So with empathy and listening my Russian ineloquent

42:03description of what Joe believes,

42:09what is your kind of response to that?

42:12Why should certain categories of healthy and young people

42:16still get vaccinated, do you think?

42:18- Well, first, just to say,

42:19it's great for Joe to be a skeptic, to ask questions.

42:22We should all be doing that.

42:23But then the next step is to go and see what the data says

42:26and see if there are actually answers to those questions.

42:29So coming to healthy people,

42:31I've done a bunch of podcasts besides this one.

42:35The one I think I remember most

42:37was a podcast with a worldwide wrestling superstar.

42:42- Very nice.

42:43- He's about six foot six and just absolutely solid muscle.

42:48And he got COVID and he almost died.

42:51And recovering from that, he said,

42:54"I've got to let my supporters know."

42:58'Cause you can imagine worldwide wrestling fans

43:00are probably not big embracers of the need for vaccines.

43:06And he just turned himself into a spokesperson

43:11for the fact that this virus doesn't care

43:15how healthy you are, how much you exercise,

43:17what a great specimen you are.

43:19It wiped him out.

43:21And we see that.

43:23The average person in the ICU right now with COVID-19

43:27is under age 50.

43:30I think there's a lot of people still thinking,

43:31"Oh, it's just those old people in the nursing homes.

43:33"That's not gonna be about me."

43:35They're wrong.

43:36There are plenty of instances of people

43:38who were totally healthy with no underlying diseases,

43:41taking good care of themselves, not obese,

43:43exercising who have died from this disease.

43:46700 children have died from this disease.

43:52Yes, some of them had underlying factors like obesity,

43:55but a lot of them did not.

43:57So it's fair to say younger people are less susceptible

44:02to serious illness, kids even less so

44:05than young adults, but it ain't zero.

44:09And if the vaccine is really safe and really effective,

44:14then you probably want everybody to take advantage of that.

44:17Even though some are dropping their risks more than others,

44:20everybody's dropping their risks some.

44:22- Are you worried about variants?

44:26So looking out into the future,

44:28what's your vision for all the possible trajectories

44:32that this virus takes in human society?

44:34- I'm totally worried about the variants.

44:37Delta was such an impressive arrival on the scene

44:42in all the wrong ways.

44:43I mean, it took over the world

44:46in the space of just a couple months

44:49because of its extremely contagious ability.

44:52- Viruses would be beautiful if they weren't terrifying.

44:55- Yeah, exactly.

44:56I mean, this whole story of viral evolution,

44:58scientifically, is just amazingly elegant.

45:01Anybody who really wanted to understand

45:03how evolution works in real time, study SARS-CoV-2,

45:07'cause it's not just Delta, it's Alpha,

45:09it's Beta, and it's Gamma,

45:10and it's the fact that these sweep through

45:14the world's population

45:16by fairly minor differences in fitness.

45:20So the real question many people are wrestling is,

45:23is Delta it?

45:24Is it such a fit virus

45:27that nothing else will be able to displace it?

45:30I don't know.

45:31I mean, there's now Delta-AY4,

45:34which is a variant of Delta

45:37that at least in the UK seems to be taking over

45:40the Delta population

45:42as though it's maybe even a little more contagious.

45:45That might be the first hint

45:47that we're seeing something new here.

45:49It's not a completely different virus.

45:51It's still Delta, but it's Delta plus.

45:53You know, the big worry, Alex,

45:57is what's out there that is so different

46:00that the vaccine protection doesn't work?

46:04(laughs)

46:07- And we don't know how different it needs to be

46:10for the vaccine to start working.

46:11That's the terrifying thing about each of these variants.

46:14It's like, it's always a pleasant surprise

46:18that the vaccine seems to still have efficacy.

46:21- And hooray for our immune system, may I say,

46:23because the vaccine immunized you

46:26against that original Wuhan virus.

46:28Now we can see that especially after two doses

46:35and even more so after a booster,

46:37your immune system is so clever

46:39that it's also making a diversity of antibodies

46:43to cover some other things that might happen to that virus

46:46to make it a little different.

§06Transcript · 46:48–55:13

46:48And you're still getting really good coverage.

46:51Even for beta, which was South Africa, B1351,

46:56which is the most different, it looks pretty good.

46:59But that doesn't mean it will always be as good as that

47:02if something gets really far away from the original virus.

47:06Now, the good news is we would know what to do

47:08in that situation.

47:10The mRNA vaccines allow you to redesign the vaccine

47:14like that and to quickly get it through

47:17a few thousand participants in a clinical trial

47:19to be sure it's raising antibodies

47:21and then bang, you could go.

47:23But I don't wanna have to do that.

47:25There will be people's lives at risk in the meantime.

47:28And what's the best way to keep that from happening?

47:30Well, try to cut down the number of infections

47:33'cause you don't get variants

47:34unless the virus is replicating in a person.

47:37- So how do we solve this thing?

47:40How do we get out of this pandemic?

47:43What's, like if you had like a wand or something

47:46or you could really implement policies,

47:50what's the full cocktail of solutions here?

47:53- It's a full cocktail.

47:53It's not just one thing.

47:56In our own country here in the US,

47:58it would be getting those 64 million reluctant people

48:01to actually go ahead and get vaccinated.

48:03- There's 64 million people who didn't get vaccinated?

48:05- Adults, yes.

48:06Not even counting the kids.

48:0764 million.

48:09Isn't that astounding?

48:10Get the kids vaccinated.

48:13Hopefully their parents will see that as a good thing too.

48:17Get those of us who are due for boosters boosted

48:19because that's gonna reduce our likelihood

48:21of having breakthrough infections and keep spreading it.

48:24Convince people that until we're really done with this

48:27and we're not now,

48:28that social distancing and mask wearing indoors

48:31are still critical to cut down the number of new infections.

48:35But of course, that's our country.

48:38This is a worldwide pandemic.

48:41I worry greatly about the fact

48:43that low and middle income countries

48:45have for the most part not even gotten started

48:47with access to vaccines.

48:49And we have to figure out a way to speed that up

48:51because otherwise that's where the next variant

48:56will probably arrive.

48:58And who knows how bad it will be

48:59and it will cross the world quickly

49:01as we've seen happen repeatedly in the last 22 months.

49:05- I think I'm really surprised, annoyed, frustrated

49:09that testing, rapid at-home testing

49:13from the very beginning

49:14wasn't a big, big part of the solution.

49:17It seems, first of all, nobody's against it.

49:19That's one huge plus for testing.

49:22It's everybody supports.

49:24Second of all, like that's what America is good at

49:27is like mass manufacturer stuff.

49:29Like stepping up, engineer stepping up

49:32and really deploying it.

49:33Plus without the collection of data

49:35is giving people freedom, is giving them information

49:39and then freedom to decide what to do with that information.

49:42It's such a powerful solution.

49:44I don't understand.

49:45- Well, now I think the Biden administration

49:47is I think emphasized like the scaling

49:50of testing manufacturers.

49:51So, but I just feel like it's an obvious solution.

49:54Get a test that's cost less than a dollar to manufacture,

49:57cost less than a dollar to buy

49:59and just everybody gets tested every single day.

50:02Don't share that data with anyone.

50:03You just make the decisions.

50:05And I believe in the intelligence of people

50:07to make the right decision to stay at home

50:09when the test is positive.

50:11- I am so completely with you on that.

50:13And NIH has been smack in the middle

50:15of trying to make that dream come true.

50:17We're running a trial right now in Georgia,

50:21Indiana, Hawaii.

50:23And where's the other one?

50:26Oh, Kentucky.

50:28Basically blanketing a community with free testing.

50:32- That's beautiful.

50:33- And look to see what happens as far as stemming

50:36the spread of the epidemic and measuring it by wastewater

50:40'cause you can really tell whether you've cut back

50:42the amount of infection in the community.

50:44Yeah, I'm so with you.

50:47We got off to such a bad start with testing.

50:49And of course, all the testing was being done

50:52for the first several months in big box laboratories

50:55where you had to send the sample off

50:57and put it through the mail somehow

50:59and get the result back sometimes five days later

51:01after you've already infected a dozen people.

51:03It was just a completely wrong model,

51:05but it's what we had.

51:06And everybody was like, oh, we got to stick with PCR

51:09because if you start using those home tests

51:12that are based on antigens lateral flow,

51:14probably there's gonna be false positives

51:16and false negatives.

51:17Okay, sure, no test is perfect,

51:20but having a test that's not acceptable

51:23or accessible is the worst setting.

51:26So we, NIH, with some requests from Congress,

51:29got a billion dollars to create this program

51:32called Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics, RADx.

51:36And we turned into a venture capital organization

51:39and we invited every small business or academic lab

51:41that had a cool idea about how to do home testing

51:44to bring it forward.

51:45And we threw them into what we called our shark tank

51:48of business experts, engineers, technology people.

51:51People understood how to deal

51:53with supply chains and manufacturing.

51:56And right now today, there are about 2 million tests

52:00being done based on what came out of that program,

52:03including most of the home tests

52:05that you can now buy on the pharmacy shelves.

52:07We did that and I wish we had done it faster,

52:10but it was an amazingly speedy effort.

52:13And you're right, companies are really good.

52:15Once they've gotten FDA emergency use authorization,

52:18and we helped a lot of them get that,

52:20they can scale up their manufacturing.

52:22I think in December, we should have about 410 million tests

52:27for that month ready to go.

52:30And if we can get one or two more platforms approved,

52:34and by the way, we are now helping FDA

52:36by being their validation lab.

52:39If we can get a couple more of these approved,

52:41we could be in the half a billion tests a month,

52:44which is really getting where we need to be.

52:46- Wow, yeah, that's a dream.

52:48That's a dream for me.

52:49It seems like an obvious solution, engineering solution.

52:52Everybody's behind it.

52:53It leads to hope versus division.

52:56I love it.

52:57Okay.

52:58- A happy story.

53:00- A happy story.

53:01- I was waiting for one.

53:02- Yeah, all right.

53:03Well, one last dive into the not happy,

53:06but you won't even have to comment on it.

53:08- Well, comment on the broader philosophical question.

53:11So NIH, again, I said Joe Rogan

53:16as the first one who pointed me to this.

53:18NIH was recently accused of funding research of a paper

53:21that had images of sedated puppies

53:24with their heads inserted into small enclosures

53:26containing disease carrying sand flies.

53:28So I could just say that this story is not true,

53:34or at least the,

53:37I think it is true that the paper

53:39that showed those images cited NIH as a funding source,

53:43but that citation is not correct.

53:45- That was not correct.

53:45- Yeah.

53:47But that brings up a bigger philosophical question

53:51that it could have been correct.

53:54How difficult is it as a director of NIH

53:57or just NIH as an organization

53:58that's funding so many amazing deep research studies

54:03to ensure the ethical fortitude of those studies

54:07when the ethics of science is,

54:10there's such a gray area between what is

54:12and what isn't ethical?

54:13- Well, tough issues.

54:16Certainly animal research is a tough issue.

54:20- I was going to bring up,

54:21it's a good example of that tough issue,

54:23is in 2015, you announced that NIH

54:27would no longer support any biomedical research

54:29involving chimpanzees.

54:31So that's like a one example of looking in the mirror,

54:36thinking deeply about what is and isn't ethical.

54:39And there was a conclusion that biomedical research

54:42on chimps is not ethical.

54:45- That was the conclusion.

54:46That was based on a lot of deep thinking

54:48and a lot of input from people

54:50who have considered this issue

54:52and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences

54:54that was asked to review the issue.

54:57I mean, the question that I wanted them to look at was,

55:01are we actually learning anything that's really essential

55:05from chimpanzee invasive research at this point?

55:08Or is it time to say that these closest relatives of ours

55:13should not be subjected to that any further

§07Transcript · 55:16–1:04:05

55:16and ought to be retired to a sanctuary?

55:19And that was the conclusion,

55:20that there was really no kind of medical experimentation

55:24that needed to be done on chimps in order to proceed.

55:27So why are we still doing this?

55:29Many of these were chimpanzees that were purchased

55:32because we thought they would be good hosts for HIV/AIDS,

55:37and they sort of weren't.

55:39And they were kept around in these primate laboratories

55:43with people coming up with other things to do,

55:45but they weren't compelling scientifically.

55:48So I think that was the right decision.

55:50I took a lot of flack

55:51from some of the scientific communities said,

55:53"Well, you're caving in to the animal rights people.

55:56And now that you've said no more research on chimps,

55:59what's next?"

56:00Certainly when it comes to companion animals,

56:04everybody's heart starts to be hurting

56:09when you see anything done that seems harmful

56:12to a dog or a cat.

56:14I have a cat, I don't have a dog.

56:16And I understand that completely.

56:18That's why we have these oversight groups

56:21that decide before you do any of that kind of research,

56:24is it justified?

56:26And what kind of provision is going to be made

56:29to avoid pain and suffering?

56:31And those have input from the public

56:35as well as the scientific community.

56:37Is that completely saying that every step

56:40that's happening there is ethical by some standard

56:45that would be hard for anybody to agree to?

56:48No, but at least it's a consensus

56:50of what people think is acceptable.

56:54Dogs are the only host for some diseases

56:58like Leishmaniasis, which was that paper

57:01that we were not responsible for,

57:03but I know why they were doing the experiment.

57:05Or like lymphatic filariasis,

57:08which is an experiment that we are supporting in Georgia

57:11that involves dogs getting infected with a parasite

57:14because that's the only model we have to know

57:16whether a treatment is gonna work or not.

57:18So I will defend that.

57:21I am not in the place of those who think

57:24all animal research is evil,

57:27'cause I think if there's something that's gonna be done

57:29to save a child from a terrible disease or an adult,

57:32and it involves animal research

57:34that's been carefully reviewed,

57:36then I think ethically, while it doesn't make me comfortable,

57:39it still seems like it's the right choice.

57:42I think to say all animal research

57:45should be taken off the table is also very unethical

57:48'cause that means you have basically doomed a lot of people

57:52for whom that research might have saved their lives

57:55to having no more hope.

57:56- And to me personally,

57:59there's far greater concerns ethically

58:01in terms of factory farming, for example,

58:04the treatment of animals in other contexts.

58:06- Oh, there's so much that goes on

58:08outside of medical research that is much more troubling.

58:12- That said, I think all cats have to go.

58:15That's just my off the record opinion.

58:17That's why I'm not involved with any ethical decisions.

58:19I'm just joking internet, I love cats.

58:22- You're a dog person.

58:23- I'm a dog person, I'm sorry.

58:25- You've seen the New Yorker cartoon

58:26where there are two dogs in the bar having a martini,

58:30and one is saying they're dressed up in their business suits

58:32and one says to the other,

58:34"You know, it's not enough for the dogs to win.

58:37"The cats have to lose."

58:39(laughing)

58:40- That's beautiful.

58:41So a few weeks ago, you've announced

58:45that you're resigning from the NIH at the end of the year.

58:49- I'm stepping down.

58:50I'm still gonna be at NIH in a different capacity.

58:53- Different capacity, right.

58:54And it's over a decade of an incredible career

58:58overseeing the NIH as its director.

59:01What are the things you're most proud of

59:04of the NIH in your time here

59:06as its director, maybe memorable moments?

59:12- There's a lot in 12 years.

59:15Science has just progressed in amazing ways

59:19over those 12 years.

59:21Think about where we are right now.

59:25Something like gene editing,

59:26being able to make changes in DNA,

59:29even for therapeutic purposes,

59:31which is now curing sickle cell disease.

59:33Unthinkable when I became director in 2009.

59:38The ability to study single cells

59:41and ask them what they're doing and get an answer.

59:44Single cell biology just has emerged

59:47in this incredibly powerful way.

59:49Having the courage to be able to say,

59:53"We could actually understand the human brain,"

59:57seemed like so far out there.

59:59And we're in the process of doing that

60:01with the Brain Initiative.

60:02Taking all that we've learned about the genome

60:06and applying it to cancer,

60:09to make individual cancer treatment really precision,

60:13and developing cancer immunotherapy,

60:15which seemed like sort of a backwater

60:17into some of the hottest science around.

60:19All those things sort of erupting,

60:22and much more to come, I'm sure.

60:23We're on an exponential curve of medical research advances,

60:27and that's glorious to watch.

60:30And of course, COVID-19,

60:31as a beneficiary of decades of basic science,

60:35understanding what mRNA is,

60:37understanding basics about coronaviruses and spike proteins,

60:41and how to combine structural biology,

60:43and immunology, and genomics into this package

60:46that allows you to make a vaccine in 11 months.

60:49Just, I would never have imagined that possible in 2009.

60:53So to have been able to kind of be the midwife,

60:56helping all of those things get birthed,

60:59that's been just an amazing 12 years.

61:02And as NIH director, you have this convening power,

61:06and this ability to look across the whole landscape

61:09of biomedical research,

61:10and identify areas that are just like ready

61:13for something big to happen,

61:15but isn't gonna happen spontaneously

61:17without some encouragement,

61:18without pulling people together from different disciplines

61:21who don't know each other,

61:22and maybe don't know how to quite understand

61:24each other's scientific language,

61:26and create an environment for that to happen.

61:29That has been just an amazing experience.

61:32I mean, I mentioned the BRAIN Initiative as one of those.

61:35The BRAIN Initiative right now,

61:36I think there's about 600 investigators working on this.

61:39Last week, the whole issue of Nature Magazine

61:43was about the output of the BRAIN Initiative,

61:45basically now giving us a cell census

61:48of what those cells in the brain are doing,

61:51which has just never been imaginable.

61:53And interestingly, more than half of the investigators

61:58in the BRAIN Initiative are engineers.

62:00They're not biologists in a traditional sense.

62:04I love that.

62:04Maybe partly 'cause my PhD is in quantum mechanics.

62:08So I think it's really a good idea

62:10to bring disciplines together and see what happens.

62:14That's an exciting thing.

62:15And I will not ever forget having the chance

62:19to announce that program in the East Room

62:22in that White House with President Obama,

62:25who totally got it and totally loved science,

62:28and working with him in some of those rare moments

62:32of sort of one-on-one conversation in the Oval Office,

62:35just him and me about science.

62:36That's a gift.

62:37- What's it like talking to Barack Obama about science?

62:41He seems to be a sponge.

62:43I've heard him, I'm an artificial intelligence person,

62:46and I've heard him talk about AI.

62:48And it was like, it made me think,

62:51is somebody like whispering in his ear or something?

62:53Because he was saying stuff that totally passed the BS test,

62:56like he really understands stuff.

62:58- He does.

62:59- That means he listened to a bunch of experts on AI.

63:02He was explaining the difference

63:03between narrow artificial intelligence and strong AI.

63:07He was saying all this,

63:08both technical and philosophical stuff.

63:10And it just made me, I don't know,

63:12it made me hopeful about the depth of understanding

63:15that a human being in political office can attain.

63:18- That gave me hope as well, and having those experiences.

63:22Oftentimes in a group, I mean, another example

63:24where I was trying to figure out,

63:26how do we take what we've learned about the genome

63:29and really apply it at scale

63:31to figure out how to prevent illness,

63:33not just treat it, but prevent it,

63:35out of which came this program called All of Us,

63:38this million strong American cohort of participants

63:42who make their electronic health records

63:44and their genome sequences and everything else available

63:46for researchers to look at.

63:48That came out of a couple of conversations

63:51with Obama and others in his office.

63:55And he asked the best questions.

63:58That was what struck me so much.

64:00I mean, a room full of scientists,

64:02and we'd be talking about the possible approaches,

64:05and he would come up with this

§08Transcript · 1:04:07–1:12:52

64:07incredibly insightful, penetrating question.

64:09Not that he knew what the answer was gonna be,

64:11but he knew what the right question was.

64:13- I think the core to that is curiosity.

64:17- Yeah.

64:18- I don't think he's even like,

64:19he's trying to be a good leader.

64:20He's legit curious.

64:22- Yes, legit.

64:24- That he, almost like a kid in a candy store

64:26gets to talk to the world experts.

64:28He somehow sneaked into this office

64:30and gets to talk to the world experts.

64:33And that's the kind of energy that I think leads

64:36to beautiful leadership in the space of science.

64:40- Indeed.

64:41Another thing I've been able to do as director

64:43is to try to break down some of the boundaries

64:45that seem to be traditional

64:47between the public and the private sectors

64:49when it comes to areas of science

64:50that really could and should be open access anyway.

64:53Why don't we work together?

64:56And that was obvious early on.

64:58And after identifying a few possible collaborators

65:03who are chief scientists of pharmaceutical companies,

65:07it looked as like we might be able

65:08to do something in that space.

65:10Out of that was born something called

65:12the Accelerating Medicines Partnership, AMP.

65:15And it took a couple of years of convening people

65:19who usually didn't talk to each other.

65:21And there was a lot of suspicion, academic scientists saying,

65:24oh, those scientists in pharma, they're not that smart.

65:28They're just trying to make money.

65:30And the academic scientists getting the wrap

65:33from the pharmaceutical scientists,

65:34all they wanna do is publish papers.

65:35They don't really care about helping anybody.

65:38And we found out both of those stereotypes were wrong.

65:41And over the course of that couple of years,

65:44built a momentum behind three starting projects,

65:47one on Alzheimer's, one on diabetes,

65:50one on rheumatoid arthritis and lupus.

65:52Very different, each one of them trying to identify

65:54what is an area that we both really need to see advance

65:58and we could do better together.

66:00And it's gonna have to be open access,

66:01otherwise NIH is not gonna play.

66:03And guess what, industry?

66:05If you really wanna do this,

66:06you gotta have skin in the game.

66:08We'll cover half the cost, you gotta cover the other half.

66:10- I love it.

66:11Enforcing open access, so resulting in open science.

66:16- Millions of dollars gone into this.

66:17And it has been a wild success.

66:19After many people were skeptical,

66:22a couple of years later we had another project on Parkinson's

66:27more recently we've added one on schizophrenia.

66:29Just this week, we added one on gene therapy,

66:34on bespoke gene therapy for ultra rare diseases,

66:38which otherwise aren't gonna have enough commercial appeal.

66:41But if we did this together,

66:42especially with FDA at the table, and they have been,

66:45we could make something happen,

66:46turn this into a sort of standardized approach

66:49where everything didn't have to be a one-off.

66:52I'm really excited about that.

66:54So what began as three projects is six,

66:56and it's about to be seven next year

66:58with a heart failure project.

67:00And all of us have gotten to know each other.

67:03And if it weren't for that background,

67:05when COVID came along, it would have been a lot harder

67:08to build the partnership called ACTIV,

67:11which has been my passion for the last 20 months,

67:14accelerating COVID-19 therapeutic interventions

67:17and vaccines.

67:18I was at our leadership team meeting this morning.

67:21It was amazing what's been accomplished.

67:23That's pretty much a hundred people who dropped everything

67:26just to work on this, about half from industry

67:29and half from government and academia.

67:31And that's how we got vaccine master protocols designed.

67:36So we all agreed about what the end points had to be.

67:39And you wondered why are there 30,000 participants

67:42in each of these trials?

67:43That's 'cause of ACTIV's group mapping out

67:47what the power needed to be for this to be convincing.

67:49Same with therapeutics.

67:53We have run at least 20 therapeutic agents through trials

67:57that ACTIV supported in record time.

68:00That's how we got monoclonal antibodies that we know work.

68:03That's been, that would not have been possible

68:08if I didn't already have a sense of how to work

68:12with the private sector that came out of AMP.

68:15AMP took two years to get started.

68:17ACTIV took two weeks.

68:18We just kept the lawyers-

68:20- Wow, to get a hundred people over?

68:21- Yeah, kept the lawyers out of the room and away.

68:24(laughing)

68:27- Now you're gonna get yourself in trouble.

68:28(laughing)

68:30I do hope one day the story of this incredible vaccine,

68:34development of vaccine protocols and trials

68:36and all this kind of details,

68:37the messy, beautiful details of science and engineering

68:41and that led to the manufacturing, the deployment

68:44and the scientific test.

68:45It's such a nice dance between engineering

68:48in the space of manufacture of the vaccines.

68:50You start before the studies are complete,

68:53you start making the vaccines just in case

68:56if the studies prove to be positive,

68:58then you can start deploying them.

68:59Just like so many parties, like you said,

69:04private and public playing together.

69:05That's just a beautiful dance that is one of the,

69:10is one of, for me, the sources of hope

69:11in this very tricky time where there's a lot

69:14of things to be cynical about in terms

69:19of the games politicians play and the hardship experience

69:23of the economy and all those kinds of things.

69:25But to me, this dance was a vaccine development

69:30was done just beautifully and it gives me hope.

69:33- It does me as well.

69:34And it was in many ways, the finest hour

69:37that science has had in a long time being called upon

69:41when every day counted and making sure

69:44that time was not wasted

69:46and things were done rigorously, but quickly.

69:49- So you're incredibly good as a leader of the NIH.

69:54It seems like you're having a heck of a lot of fun.

69:57Why step down from this role after so much fun?

70:02- Well, no other NIH director has served more

70:06than one president after being appointed

70:09by one, you're sort of done.

70:10And the idea of being carried over

70:12for a second presidency with Trump

70:14and now a third one with Biden is unheard of.

70:18I just think, Lex, that scientific organizations benefit

70:22from new vision and 12 years is a really long time

70:26to have the same leader.

70:28And if I wasn't gonna stick it out

70:30for the entire Biden four-year term,

70:33it's good not to wait too late during that

70:36to signal an intent to step down

70:38'cause the president's gotta find the right person,

70:40gotta nominate them, gotta get the Senate to confirm them,

70:44which is a unpredictable process right now.

70:47And you don't wanna try to do that

70:49in the second half of somebody's term as president.

70:52This has gotta happen now.

70:53So I kind of decided back at the end of May

70:56that this should be my final year.

70:59And I'm okay with that.

71:00I do have some mixed emotions 'cause I love the NIH.

71:05I love the job.

71:07It's exhausting.

71:09I'm traditionally for the last 20 months anyway,

71:13working 100 hours a week.

71:14It's just, that's what it takes to juggle all of this.

71:18And that keeps me from having a lot of time

71:21for anything else.

71:23And I wouldn't mind, 'cause I don't think I'm done yet.

71:25I wouldn't mind having some time to really think

71:29about what the next chapter should be.

71:31And I have none of that time right now.

71:33Do I have another calling?

71:35Is there something else I could contribute

71:37that's different than this?

71:38I'd like to find that out.

71:41- I think the right answer is you're just stepping down

71:46to focus on your music career.

71:47(laughing)

71:49But-- - That might not be

71:50a good plan for anything, very sustainable.

71:53- But I think that is a sign of a great leader

71:56as George Washington did stepping down at the right time.

71:59- Ted Williams.

72:00- Yes.

72:03- He quit when, I think he hit a home run on his last at-bat

72:06and his average was 400 at the time.

72:08- No one to walk away.

72:10I mean, it's hard, but it's beautiful to see in a leader.

72:13You also oversaw the Human Genome Project.

72:17You mentioned the Brain Initiative,

72:19which has, it's a dream to map the human brain.

72:24And there's the dream to map the human code,

72:28which was the Human Genome Project.

72:30And you've said that it is humbling for me

72:32and awe-inspiring to realize

72:34that we have caught the first glimpse

72:37of our own instruction book, previously known only to God.

72:42How does that, if you can just kind of wax poetic

72:46for a second, how does it make you feel

72:49that we were able to map this instruction book,

72:52look into our own code and be able to reverse engineer it?

§09Transcript · 1:12:57–1:22:33

72:57- It's breathtaking.

73:00It's so fundamental.

73:02And yet, for all of human history,

73:05we're ignorant of the details

73:08of what that instruction book looked like.

73:11And then we crossed a bridge

73:13into the territory of the known.

73:16And we had that in front of us,

73:17still written in a language

73:19that we had to learn how to read.

73:21And we're in the process of doing that

73:23and will be for decades to come.

73:25But we owned it, we had it.

73:27And it has such profound consequences.

73:30It's both a book about our history.

73:33It's a book of sort of the parts list of a human being,

73:39the genes that are in there and how they're regulated.

73:43And it's also a medical textbook

73:45that can teach us things that will provide answers

73:48to illnesses we don't understand

73:50and alleviate suffering and premature death.

73:53So it's a pretty amazing thing to contemplate.

73:57And it has utterly transformed the way we do science.

74:00And it is in the process of transforming

74:02the way we do medicine,

74:04although much of that still lies ahead.

74:07You know, while we were working on the Genome Project,

74:11it was sort of hard to get this sense of a wow-ness

74:16because it was just hard work.

74:18And you were getting, you know, another megabase.

74:21Okay, this is good.

74:22But when did you actually step back and say, we did it.

74:26It's the profoundness of that.

74:29I mean, there were two points, I guess.

74:31One was the announcement on that June 26, 2000,

74:34where the whole world heard, well, we don't quite have it,

74:37but we got a pretty good draft.

74:39And suddenly people were like realizing,

74:41oh, this is a big deal.

74:44For me, it was more when we got the full analysis of it,

74:48published it in February, 2001, in that issue of Nature,

74:51paper that Eric Lander and Bob Waterston and I

74:54were the main authors.

74:55And we toiled over and tried to get as much insight

74:59as we could in there about what the meaning of all this was.

75:02But you also had this sense that we are

75:05such beginning readers here.

75:07We are still in kindergarten trying to make sense

75:11out of this 3 billion letter book.

75:14And we're gonna be at this for generations to come.

75:17- You are a man of faith, Christian,

75:22and you are a man of science.

75:25What is the role of religion and of science in society

75:29and in the individual human mind and heart like yours?

75:34- Well, I was not a person of faith when I was growing up.

75:39I became a believer in my 20s,

75:42influenced as a medical student by a recognition

75:46that I hadn't really thought through the issues

75:48of what's the meaning of life?

75:51Why are we all here?

75:53What happens when you die?

75:55Is there a God?

75:56Science is not so helpful in answering those questions.

76:00So I had to look around in other places

76:02and ultimately came to my own conclusion that atheism,

76:07which is where I had been,

76:08was the least supportable of the choices

76:11because it was the assertion of a universal negative,

76:14which scientists aren't supposed to do.

76:16And agnosticism came as an attractive option

76:21but felt a little bit like a cop-out.

76:23So I had to keep going, trying to figure out

76:26why do believers actually believe this stuff?

76:28And came to realize it was all pretty compelling.

76:32That there's no proof.

76:33I can't prove to you or anybody else that God exists,

76:36but I can say it's pretty darn plausible.

76:38And ultimately, what kind of God is it caused me

76:43to search through various religions and see,

76:46well, what do people think about that?

76:48And to my surprise, encountered the person of Jesus Christ

76:53as unique in every possible way

76:56and answering a lot of the questions

76:58I couldn't otherwise answer.

77:00And somewhat kicking and screaming, I became a Christian.

77:06Even though at the time, as a medical student

77:10already interested in genetics,

77:12people predicted my head would then explode

77:14'cause these were incompatible worldviews.

77:18They really have not been for me.

77:20I am so fortunate, I think, that in a given day,

77:23wrestling with an issue,

77:27it can have both the rigorous scientific component

77:31and it can have the spiritual component.

77:33COVID-19 is a great example.

77:35These vaccines are both an amazing scientific achievement

77:39and an answer to prayer.

77:40When I'm wrestling with vaccine hesitancy

77:44and trying to figure out what answers to come up with,

77:47I get so frustrated sometimes and I'm comforted

77:51by reassurances that God is aware of that.

77:55I don't have to do this alone.

77:56So I know there are people like your friend, Sam Harris,

78:02who feel differently.

78:04Sam wrote a rather famous op-ed in the New York Times

78:09when I was nominated as the NIH director

78:11saying, "This is a terrible mistake."

78:14You can't do this. - Oh no, Sam.

78:17You can't have somebody who believes in God

78:20running the NIH.

78:21He's just gonna completely ruin the place.

78:23- Well, I have a testimonial.

78:26Christopher Hitchens, a devout atheist, if I could say so,

78:31was a friend of yours and referred to you as,

78:33quote, "One of the greatest living Americans,"

78:36and stated that you were one of the most devout believers

78:39he has ever met.

78:40He further stated that you were sequencing the genome

78:43of the cancer that would ultimately claim his life

78:46and that your friendship,

78:47despite their differing opinions on religion,

78:50was an example of the greatest armed truce in modern times.

78:55What did you learn from Christopher Hitchens about life

78:58or perhaps what is a fond memory you have of this man

79:00with whom you've disagreed but who is also your friend?

79:05- Yeah, I loved Hitch.

79:08I'm sorry he's gone.

79:10Iron sharpens iron.

79:12There's nothing better for trying to figure out

79:15where you are with your own situation

79:18and your own opinions, your own world views,

79:20than encountering somebody who's completely in another space

79:24and who's got the gift, as Hitch did,

79:26of challenging everything

79:28and doing so over a glass of scotch or two or three.

79:31Yeah, we got off to a rough start

79:35where in an interaction we had at a rather highbrow dinner,

79:39he was really deeply insulting of a question I was asking,

79:45but I was like, okay, that's fine.

79:47Let's figure out how we can have a more civil conversation.

79:51And then I really learned to greatly admire his intellect

79:54and to find the jousting with him,

79:58and it wasn't all about faith, although it often was,

80:01was really inspiring and enervating, energizing.

80:05And then when he got cancer,

80:07I became sort of his ally,

80:09trying to help him find pathways through the various options

80:13and maybe helped him to stay around on this planet

80:17for an extra six months or so.

80:19And I have the warmest feelings

80:23of being in his apartment downtown

80:25over a glass of wine, talking about whatever.

80:32Sometimes it was science, he was fascinated by science.

80:34Sometimes it was Thomas Jefferson.

80:37Sometimes it was faith.

80:40And I knew it would always be really interesting.

80:44- So he's now gone.

80:45- Yeah.

80:46- Do you think about your own mortality?

80:49Are you afraid of death?

80:51- I'm not afraid.

80:52I'm not looking forward to it.

80:53I don't wanna rush it,

80:55'cause I feel like I got some things I can still do here.

80:58But as a person of faith, I don't think I'm afraid.

81:02I'm 71.

81:03I know I don't have an infinite amount of time left,

81:06and I wanna use the time I've got

81:09in some sort of way that matters.

81:12I'm not ready to become a full-time golfer.

81:15(laughing)

81:17But I don't quite know what that is.

81:20I do feel that I've had a chance

81:23to do amazingly powerful things as far as experiences,

81:27and maybe God has something else in mind.

81:30I wrote this book 16 years ago,

81:34"The Language of God," about science and faith,

81:37trying to explain how, from my perspective,

81:39these are compatible, these are in harmony.

81:43They're complementary if you are careful

81:46about which kind of question you're asking.

81:48And to my surprise, a lot of people

81:51seemed to be interested in that.

81:52They were tired of hearing the extreme voices,

81:55like Dawkins at one end, and people like Ken Ham

82:00and Answers in Genesis on the other end,

82:02saying if you trust science, you're going to hell.

82:05And they thought there must be a way

82:07that these things could get along,

82:09and that's what I tried to put forward.

82:10And then I started a foundation, BioLogos,

82:13which then I had to step away from to become NIH director,

82:16which has just flourished, maybe because I stepped away,

82:19I don't know. (laughing)

82:20But it now has millions of people

82:23who come to that website, and they run amazing meetings.

82:26And I think a lot of people have really come to a sense

82:29that this is okay, I can love science, and I can love God,

82:32and that's not a bad thing.

82:33So maybe there's something more I can do in that space.

§10Transcript · 1:22:37–1:26:47

82:37Maybe that book is ready for a second edition.

82:40- I think so.

82:41But when you look back, life is finite.

82:44What do you hope your legacy is?

82:47- I don't know, this whole legacy thing

82:51seems a little bit hard to embrace.

82:54It feels a little self-promoting, doesn't it?

82:56I sort of feel like in many ways,

82:57I went to my own funeral on October 5th

83:01when I announced that I was stepping down,

83:02and I got the most amazing responses from people,

83:06some of whom I knew really well,

83:08some of whom I didn't know at all,

83:10who were just telling me stories

83:12about something that I had contributed to

83:15that made a difference to them.

83:16And that was incredibly heartwarming, and that's enough.

83:19I don't wanna build an edifice,

83:22I don't have a plan for a monument or a statue,

83:25God help us. (laughing)

83:27I do feel like I've been incredibly fortunate,

83:30I've had the chance to play a role

83:32in things that were pretty profound

83:35from the Genome Project to NIH to COVID vaccines,

83:39and I ought to be plenty satisfied

83:41that I've had enough experiences here to feel pretty good

83:46about the way in which my life panned out.

83:49- We did a bunch of difficult questions in this conversation,

83:53let me ask the most difficult one,

83:55that perhaps is the reason you turned to God,

84:01what is the meaning of life? (laughing)

84:05Have you figured it out yet?

84:07- Expect me to put that into three sentences?

84:10- We only have a couple of minutes, so please hurry up.

84:12(laughing)

84:15- Well, that's not a question

84:16that I think science helps me with,

84:18so you're gonna push me into the faith zone,

84:20which is where I'd wanna go with that.

84:23I think, well, what is the meaning, why are we here,

84:25what are we put here to do?

84:27I do believe we're here for just a blink of an eye,

84:31and that our existence somehow goes on beyond that

84:35in a way that I don't entirely understand,

84:37despite efforts to do so.

84:39I think we are called upon in this blink of an eye

84:43to try to make the world a better place,

84:45to try to love people, to try to do a better job

84:50of our more altruistic instincts,

84:55and less of our selfish instincts,

84:59to try to be what God calls us to be,

85:03people who are holy, not people who are

85:07driven by self-indulgence.

85:11And sometimes I'm better at that than others.

85:13(laughing)

85:15But I think that, for me as a Christian, is a pretty clear,

85:18I mean, it's to live out the Sermon on the Mount.

85:22Once I read that, I couldn't unread it,

85:27all those beatitudes, all the blesseds.

85:30That's what we're supposed to do.

85:32And the meaning of life is to strive for that standard,

85:36recognizing you're going to fail over and over again,

85:40and that God forgives you.

85:41- Hopefully to put a little bit of love

85:44out there into the world.

85:45- That's what it's about.

85:47- Francis, I'm truly humbled and inspired

85:52by both your brilliance and your humility,

85:56and that you would spend your extremely

85:58valuable time with me today.

85:59It was really an honor.

86:00Thank you so much for talking today.

86:02- I was glad to, and you ask really good questions.

86:05So your reputation as the best podcaster

86:08has borne itself out here this afternoon.

86:10- Thank you so much.

86:12Thanks for listening to this conversation

86:14with Francis Collins.

86:15To support this podcast, please check out

86:17our sponsors in the description.

86:19And now, let me leave you with some words

86:21from Isaac Newton, reflecting on his life and work.

86:25I seem to have been only like a boy,

86:28playing on the seashore and diverting myself

86:31in now and then finding a smoother pebble

86:33or a prettier shell than ordinary,

86:36whilst the great ocean of truth

86:38lay all undiscovered before me.

86:40Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.

86:44(upbeat music)

86:47(upbeat music)

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