Max Tegmark: Life 3.0
嘉宾：Max Tegmark
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§01Transcript · 00:00–09:05
As part of MIT course 6.099 Artificial General Intelligence,
I've gotten the chance to sit down with Max Tegmark.
He is a professor here at MIT.
He's a physicist, spent a large part of his career
studying the mysteries of our cosmological universe,
but he's also studied and delved
into the beneficial possibilities
and the existential risks of artificial intelligence.
Amongst many other things, he's the co-founder
of the Future of Life Institute, author of two books,
both of which I highly recommend.
First, "Our Mathematical Universe," second is "Life 3.0."
He's truly an out-of-the-box thinker and a fun personality,
so I really enjoy talking to him.
If you'd like to see more of these videos in the future,
please subscribe and also click the little bell icon
to make sure you don't miss any videos.
Also, Twitter, LinkedIn, AGI.MIT.edu
if you wanna watch other lectures
or conversations like this one.
Better yet, go read Max's book, "Life 3.0."
Chapter seven on goals is my favorite.
It's really where philosophy and engineering come together,
and it opens with a quote by Dostoevsky,
"The mystery of human existence lies not
"in just staying alive, but in finding something to live for."
Lastly, I believe that every failure
rewards us with an opportunity to learn,
in that sense, I've been very fortunate
to fail in so many new and exciting ways,
and this conversation was no different.
I've learned about something called
radio frequency interference, RFI, look it up.
Apparently, music and conversations
from local radio stations can bleed into the audio
that you're recording in such a way
that it almost completely ruins that audio.
It's an exceptionally difficult sound source to remove.
So, I've gotten the opportunity to learn
how to avoid RFI in the future during recording sessions.
I've also gotten the opportunity to learn
how to use Adobe Audition and iZotope RX6
to do some noise, some audio repair.
Of course, this is an exceptionally difficult noise to remove.
I am an engineer, I'm not an audio engineer,
neither is anybody else in our group,
but we did our best.
Nevertheless, I thank you for your patience,
and I hope you're still able to enjoy this conversation.
Do you think there's intelligent life
out there in the universe?
Let's open up with an easy question.
- I have a minority view here, actually.
When I give public lectures, I often ask for a show of hands
who thinks there's intelligent life out there
somewhere else, and almost everyone put their hands up.
And when I ask why, they'll be like,
"Oh, there's so many galaxies out there, there's gotta be."
But I'm a numbers nerd, right?
So when you look more carefully at it,
it's not so clear at all.
When we talk about our universe, first of all,
we don't mean all of space.
We actually mean, I don't know,
you can throw me the universe if you want,
it's behind you there.
(laughing)
We simply mean the spherical region of space
from which light has had time to reach us so far
during the 14.8 billion year,
13.8 billion years since our Big Bang.
There's more space here,
but this is what we call a universe,
'cause that's all we have access to.
So is there intelligent life here
that's gotten to the point of building telescopes
and computers?
My guess is no, actually.
The probability of it happening on any given planet
is some number we don't know what it is.
And what we do know is that the number can't be super high,
'cause there's over a billion Earth-like planets
in the Milky Way galaxy alone,
many of which are billions of years older than Earth.
And aside from some UFO believers,
there isn't much evidence
that any super advanced civilization has come here at all.
And so that's the famous Fermi paradox, right?
And then if you work the numbers,
what you find is that if you have no clue
what the probability is of getting life on a given planet,
so it could be 10 to the minus 10,
10 to the minus 20, or 10 to the minus two,
or any power of 10 is sort of equally likely
if you wanna be really open-minded,
that translates into it being equally likely
that our nearest neighbor is 10 to the 16 meters away,
10 to the 17 meters away, 10 to the 18.
Now, by the time you get much less than 10 to the 16 already
we pretty much know there is nothing else that close.
And when you get beyond 10-
- Because they would have discovered us.
- Yeah, they would have discovered us long ago,
or if they're really close,
we would have probably noted some engineering projects
that they're doing.
And if it's beyond 10 to the 26 meters,
that's already outside of here.
So my guess is actually that we are the only life in here
that's gotten to the point of building advanced tech,
which I think is very,
puts a lot of responsibility on our shoulders,
not screw up.
I think people who take for granted
that it's okay for us to screw up,
have an accidental nuclear war or go extinct somehow,
because there's a sort of Star Trek-like situation out there
where some other life forms are gonna come and bail us out
and it doesn't matter as much.
I think they're lulling us into a false sense of security.
I think it's much more prudent to say,
let's be really grateful
for this amazing opportunity we've had
and make the best of it just in case it is down to us.
- So from a physics perspective,
do you think intelligent life,
so it's unique from a sort of statistical view
of the size of the universe,
but from the basic matter of the universe,
how difficult is it for intelligent life to come about
with the kind of advanced tech building life?
Is implied in your statement that it's really difficult
to create something like a human species?
- Well, I think what we know is that going from no life
to having life that can do a level of tech,
there's some sort of two going beyond that
than actually settling our whole universe with life.
There's some road, major roadblock there,
which is some great filter as it's sometimes called,
which is tough to get through.
It's either, that roadblock is either behind us
or in front of us.
I'm hoping very much that it's behind us.
I'm super excited every time we get a new report
from NASA saying they failed to find any life on Mars.
Like, yes, awesome.
Because that suggests that the hard part,
maybe it was getting the first ribosome
or some very low level kind of stepping stone
so that we're home free.
'Cause if that's true,
then the future is really only limited
by our own imagination.
It would be much suckier if it turns out
that this level of life is kind of a dime a dozen,
but maybe there is some other problem.
As soon as a civilization gets advanced technology,
within a hundred years,
they get into some stupid fight with themselves and poof.
That would be a bummer.
- Yeah, so you've explored the mysteries
of the cosmological universe,
the one that's between us today.
I think you've also begun to explore the other universe,
which is sort of the mystery,
the mysterious universe of the mind,
of intelligence, of intelligent life.
So is there a common thread between your interest
and the way you think about space and intelligence?
- Oh yeah.
When I was a teenager,
I was already very fascinated by the biggest questions.
And I felt that the two biggest mysteries of all in science
were our universe out there and our universe in here.
- Yeah.
- So it's quite natural after having spent
a quarter of a century on my career,
thinking a lot about this one,
that I'm now indulging in the luxury
of doing research on this one.
It's just so cool.
I feel the time is ripe now
for you trans-greatly deepening our understanding of this.
- Just start exploring this one.
- Yeah, 'cause I think a lot of people view intelligence
as something mysterious that can only exist
in biological organisms like us,
and therefore dismiss all talk about,
artificial general intelligence is science fiction.
But from my perspective as a physicist,
I am a blob of quarks and electrons
moving around in a certain pattern
and processing information in certain ways.
And this is also a blob of quarks and electrons.
I'm not smarter than the water bottle
because I'm made of different kinds of quarks.
I'm made of up quarks and down quarks,
exact same kind as this.
There's no secret sauce, I think, in me.
It's all about the pattern of the information processing.
§02Transcript · 09:08–17:49
And this means that there's no law of physics
saying that we can't create technology,
which can help us by being incredibly intelligent
and help us crack mysteries that we couldn't.
In other words, I think we've really only seen
the tip of the intelligence iceberg so far.
- Yeah, so the perceptronium.
- Yeah.
- So you coined this amazing term.
It's a hypothetical state of matter,
sort of thinking from a physics perspective,
what is the kind of matter that can help,
as you're saying, subjective experience emerge,
consciousness emerge?
So how do you think about consciousness
from this physics perspective?
- Very good question.
So again, I think many people have underestimated
our ability to make progress on this
by convincing themselves it's hopeless
because somehow we're missing some ingredient that we need,
or some new consciousness particle or whatever.
I happen to think that we're not missing anything
and that it's not, the interesting thing
about consciousness that gives us
this amazing subjective experience of colors
and sounds and emotions and so on
is rather something at the higher level
about the patterns of information processing
and that's why I like to think about this idea
of perceptronium, what does it mean
for an arbitrary physical system to be conscious
in terms of what its particles are doing
or its information is doing?
I don't think, I hate the carbon chauvinism,
you know, this attitude you have to be made of carbon atoms
to be smart or conscious.
- So something about the information processing
that this kind of matter performs.
- Yeah, and you know, you can see,
I have my favorite equations here
describing various fundamental aspects of the world.
I feel that, I think one day,
maybe someone who's watching this will come up
with the equations that information processing
has to satisfy to be conscious.
I'm quite convinced there is big discovery to be made there
'cause let's face it, we know that some information
processing is conscious 'cause we are conscious,
but we also know that a lot of information processing
is not conscious, like most of the information processing
happening in your brain right now is not conscious.
There are like 10 megabytes per second coming in,
even just through your visual system.
You're not conscious about your heartbeat regulation
or most things, even like if I just ask you
to like read what it says here, you look at it
and then, oh, now you know what it said,
but you're not aware of how the computation
actually happened.
You're like, your consciousness is like the CEO
that got an email at the end with the final answer.
So what is it that makes a difference?
I think that's both a great science mystery.
We're actually studying it a little bit in my lab
here at MIT, but I also think it's just a really urgent
question to answer.
For starters, I mean, if you're an emergency room doctor
and you have an unresponsive patient coming in,
wouldn't it be great if in addition to having a CT scanner,
you had a consciousness scanner that could figure out
whether this person is actually having locked in syndrome
or is actually comatose.
And in the future, imagine if we build robots
or the machine that we can have really good conversations
with, which I think is most likely to happen, right?
Wouldn't you want to know like if your home helper robot
is actually experiencing anything or just like a zombie?
I mean, would you prefer, what would you prefer?
Would you prefer that it's actually unconscious
so that you don't have to feel guilty about switching it off
or giving boring chores or what would you prefer?
- Well, certainly we would prefer,
I would prefer the appearance of consciousness.
But the question is whether the appearance of consciousness
is different than consciousness itself.
And sort of to ask that as a question,
do you think we need to understand what consciousness is,
solve the hard problem of consciousness
in order to build something like an AGI system?
- No, I don't think that.
And I think we will probably be able to build things
even if we don't answer that question.
But if we want to make sure that what happens
is a good thing, we better solve it first.
So it's a wonderful controversy you're raising there
where you have basically three points of view
about the hard problem.
So there are two different points of view
that both conclude that the hard problem of consciousness
is BS.
On one hand, you have some people like Daniel Dennett
who say, "Oh, consciousness is just BS,"
because consciousness is the same thing as intelligence.
There's no difference.
So anything which acts conscious is conscious,
just like we are.
And then there are also a lot of people,
including many top AI researchers I know,
who say, "Oh, consciousness is just bullshit
"because of course machines can never be conscious."
They're always gonna be zombies.
You never have to feel guilty about how you treat them.
And then there's a third group of people,
including Giulio Tononi, for example,
and Christoph Koch and a number of others.
I would put myself also in this middle camp
who say that actually some information processing
is conscious and some is not.
So let's find the equation which can be used
to determine which it is.
And I think we've just been a little bit lazy,
kind of running away from this problem for a long time.
It's been almost taboo to even mention the C word
in a lot of circles.
But we should stop making excuses.
This is a science question.
And there are ways we can even test any theory
that makes predictions for this.
And coming back to this helper robot,
so you said you'd want your helper robot
to certainly act conscious and treat you,
have conversations with you and stuff.
- I think so.
- Wouldn't you, would you feel,
would you feel a little bit creeped out
if you realized that it was just a glossed up tape recorder,
you know, that was just zombie and a sort of faking emotion?
Would you prefer that it actually had an experience
or would you prefer that it's actually
not experiencing anything?
So you feel, you don't have to feel guilty
about what you do to it.
- It's such a difficult question because, you know,
it's like when you're in a relationship and you say,
well, I love you.
And the other person said, I love you back.
It's like asking, well, do they really love you back?
Or are they just saying they love you back?
Don't you really want them to actually love you?
It's hard to, it's hard to really know the difference
between everything seeming like there's consciousness
present, there's intelligence present,
there's affection, passion, love,
and it actually being there.
I'm not sure.
Do you have-
- But like, let me ask you,
can I ask you a question about this?
Just to make it a bit more pointed.
So Mass General Hospital is right across the river, right?
- Yes.
- Suppose you're going in for a medical procedure
and they're like, you know, for anesthesia,
what we're going to do is we're going to give you
muscle relaxants so you won't be able to move
and you're going to feel excruciating pain
during the whole surgery,
but you won't be able to do anything about it.
But then we're going to give you this drug
that erases your memory of it.
Would you be cool about that?
What's the difference that you're conscious about it
or not if there's no behavioral change, right?
- Right.
That's a really clear way to put it.
That's, yeah, it feels like in that sense,
experiencing it is a valuable quality.
So actually being able to have subjective experiences,
at least in that case, is valuable.
- And I think we humans have a little bit
of a bad track record also
of making these self-serving arguments
that other entities aren't conscious.
You know, people often say,
oh, these animals can't feel pain.
It's okay to boil lobsters because we asked them
if it hurt and they didn't say anything.
And now there was just a paper out saying
lobsters do feel pain when you boil them
and they're banning it in Switzerland.
And we did this with slaves too often
and said, oh, they don't mind.
They don't maybe, aren't conscious
or women don't have souls or whatever.
So I'm a little bit nervous when I hear people
just take as an axiom that machines
can't have experience ever.
I think this is just,
it's really fascinating science question is what it is.
§03Transcript · 17:52–26:55
Let's research it and try to figure out
what it is that makes the difference
between unconscious intelligent behavior
and conscious intelligent behavior.
- So in terms of, so if you think of it,
Boston Dynamics, humanoid robot being sort of
with a broom being pushed around,
it starts pushing on his consciousness question.
So let me ask, do you think an AGI system
like a few neuroscientists believe
needs to have a physical embodiment,
needs to have a body or something like a body?
- No, I don't think so.
You mean to have a conscious experience?
- To have consciousness.
- I do think it helps a lot to have a physical embodiment
to learn the kind of things about the world
that are important to us humans, for sure.
But I don't think the physical embodiment
is necessary after you've learned it,
just have the experience.
Think about when you're dreaming, right?
Your eyes are closed, you're not getting any sensory input,
you're not behaving or moving in any way,
but there's still an experience there, right?
And so clearly the experience that you have
when you see something cool in your dreams
isn't coming from your eyes,
it's just the information processing itself in your brain,
which is that experience, right?
- But if I put it another way,
I'll say because it comes from neuroscience
is the reason you wanna have a body and a physical,
something like a physical,
like a physical system
is because you want to be able to preserve something.
In order to have a self, you could argue,
you need to have some kind of embodiment of self
to want to preserve.
- Well, now we're getting a little bit anthropomorphic,
anthropomorphizing things,
maybe talking about self-preservation instincts.
I mean, we are evolved organisms, right?
- Right.
- So Darwinian evolution endowed us
and other evolved organism
with a self-preservation instinct
'cause those that didn't have those self-preservation genes
got cleaned out of the gene pool, right?
But if you build an artificial general intelligence,
the mind space that you can design is much, much larger
than just a specific subset of minds that can evolve.
So an AGI mind doesn't necessarily have
to have any self-preservation instinct.
It also doesn't necessarily have to be
so individualistic as us.
Like imagine if you could just, first of all,
or we are also very afraid of death.
So suppose you could back yourself up every five minutes
and then your airplane is about to crash.
You're like, "Shucks, I'm just,
"I'm gonna lose the last five minutes of experiences
"since my last cloud backup, dang."
You know, it's not as big a deal.
Or if we could just copy experiences
between our minds easily,
which we could easily do if we were silicon-based, right?
Then maybe we would feel a little bit more
like a hive mind actually.
So I don't think we should take for granted at all
that AGI will have to have any of those sort of
competitive as alpha male instincts.
On the other hand, you know, this is really interesting
because I think some people go too far and say,
"Of course, we don't have to have any concerns either
"that advanced AI will have those instincts
"because we can build anything we want."
That there's a very nice set of arguments going back
to Steven Mohandro and Nick Bostrom and others
just pointing out that when we build machines,
we normally build them with some kind of goal,
you know, win this chess game,
drive this car safely or whatever.
And as soon as you put in a goal into machine,
especially if it's kind of open-ended goal
and the machine is very intelligent,
it'll break that down into a bunch of sub-goals.
And one of those goals
will almost always be self-preservation
'cause if it breaks or dies in the process,
it's not gonna accomplish the goal, right?
Like suppose you just build a little,
you have a little robot and you tell it to go down
the store market here and get you some food,
make you cook you an Italian dinner, you know,
and then someone mugs it and tries to break it on the way.
That robot has an incentive to not get destroyed
and defend itself or run away
because otherwise it's gonna fail in cooking your dinner.
It's not afraid of death,
but it really wants to complete the dinner cooking goal
so it will have a self-preservation instinct.
- Continue being a functional agent.
- Yeah. - Somehow.
- And similarly, if you give any kind of more
ambitious goal to an AGI,
it's very likely to wanna acquire more resources
so it can do that better.
And it's exactly from those sort of sub-goals
that we might not have intended
that some of the concerns about AGI safety come.
You give it some goal that seems completely harmless
and then before you realize it,
it's also trying to do these other things
which you didn't want it to do
and it's maybe smarter than us.
So it's fascinating.
- And let me pause just because I am
in a very kind of human-centric way
see fear of death as a valuable motivator.
- Uh-huh.
- So you don't think,
you think that's an artifact of evolution,
so that's the kind of mind space evolution created
that we're sort of almost obsessed about self-preservation.
- Yeah. - Some kind of genetic level.
You don't think that's necessary to be afraid of death?
So not just a kind of sub-goal of self-preservation
just so you can keep doing the thing,
but more like fundamentally sort of have the finite thing
like this ends for you at some point.
- Interesting.
Do I think it's necessary for what precisely?
- For intelligence, but also for consciousness.
So for those, for both,
do you think really like a finite death
and the fear of it is important?
- So before I can answer,
before we can agree on whether it's necessary
for intelligence or for consciousness,
we should be clear on how we define those two words
'cause a lot of really smart people
define them in very different ways.
I was on this panel with AI experts
and they couldn't agree on how to define intelligence even.
So I define intelligence simply
as the ability to accomplish complex goals.
I like your broad definition because again,
I don't want to be a carbon chauvinist.
- Right.
- And in that case, no,
certainly it doesn't require fear of death.
I would say alpha go, alpha zero is quite intelligent.
I don't think alpha zero has any fear of being turned off
because it doesn't understand the concept of it even.
And similarly consciousness,
I mean, you can certainly imagine
very simple kind of experience.
If certain plants have any kind of experience,
I don't think they're very afraid of dying
or there's nothing they can do about it anyway,
so there wasn't that much value in.
But more seriously, I think if you ask,
not just about being conscious, but maybe having
what we might call an exciting life
for you if you have passion
and really appreciate the things,
maybe there perhaps it does help having a backdrop
that, hey, it's finite.
No, let's make the most of this, let's live to the fullest.
So if you knew you were gonna just live forever,
do you think you would change your?
- Yeah, I mean, in some perspective,
it would be an incredibly boring life living forever.
So in the sort of loose subjective terms that you said
of something exciting and something in this
that other humans would understand, I think,
is yeah, it seems that the finiteness of it is important.
- Well, the good news I have for you then is
based on what we understand about cosmology,
everything in our universe is ultimately probably finite,
although--
- Big crunch or big, what's the infinite expansion?
- Yeah, we could have a big chill
or a big crunch or a big rip or the big snap
or death bubbles, all of them are more
than a billion years away.
So we certainly have vastly more time
than our ancestors thought, but they're still pretty hard
to squeeze in an infinite number of compute cycles,
even though there are some loopholes
that just might be possible.
But I think some people like to say
that you should live as if you're about to,
you're gonna die in five years or so,
and that's sort of optimal.
Maybe it's a good assumption,
we should build our civilization as if it's all finite
to be on the safe side.
- Right, exactly.
§04Transcript · 26:56–36:15
So you mentioned in defining intelligence
as the ability to solve complex goals.
Where would you draw a line
or how would you try to define human level intelligence
and superhuman level intelligence?
Where is consciousness part of that definition?
- No, consciousness does not come into this definition.
So I think of intelligence as a spectrum,
but there are very many different kinds of goals
you can have.
You can have a goal to be a good chess player,
a good go player, a good car driver,
a good investor, good poet, et cetera.
So intelligence by its very nature
isn't something you can measure by just one number
or some overall goodness.
No, no, there are some people who are better at this,
some people are better at that.
Right now we have machines that are much better than us
at some very narrow tasks,
like multiplying large numbers fast,
memorizing large databases, playing chess, playing Go,
and soon driving cars.
But there's still no machine that can match a human child
in general intelligence.
But artificial general intelligence, AGI,
the name of your course, of course,
that is by its very definition,
the quest to build a machine
that can do everything as well as we can.
So the old holy grail of AI
from back to its inception in the '60s.
If that ever happens, of course,
I think it's gonna be the biggest transition
in the history of life on earth,
but it doesn't necessarily have to wait the big impact
until machines are better than us at nothing.
The really big change doesn't come exactly at the moment
they're better than us at everything.
The really big change comes,
or first their big change is when they start
becoming better at us at doing most of the jobs that we do,
because that takes away much of the demand for human labor.
And then the really whopping change comes
when they become better than us at AI research.
- Right. - Right, because right now,
the timescale of AI research is limited
by the human research and development cycle of years,
typically, you know, how long does it take
from one release of some software or iPhone
or whatever to the next?
But once Google can replace 40,000 engineers
by 40,000 equivalent pieces of software or whatever,
right, then there's no reason that has to be years.
It can be in principle much faster.
And the timescale of future progress in AI
and all of science and technology
will be driven by machines, not humans.
So it's this simple point,
which gives rise to this incredibly fun controversy
about whether there can be intelligence explosion,
so-called singularity as Werner Wieners called it.
Now the idea is articulated by I.J. Good,
is obviously way back 50s,
but you can see Alan Turing
and others thought about it even earlier.
So you asked me what exactly would I define
human level intelligence? - Yeah, human level, yeah.
- So the glib answer is to say something
which is better than us at all cognitive tasks,
or better than any human at all cognitive tasks.
But the really interesting bar, I think,
goes a little bit lower than that, actually.
It's when they can, when they're better than us
at AI programming and general learning
so that they can, if they want to,
get better than us at anything by just studying up.
- So there, better is a key word,
and better is towards this kind of spectrum
of the complexity of goals it's able to accomplish.
- Yeah. - So another way to...
And that's certainly a very clear definition of human level.
So it's almost like a sea that's rising,
you could do more and more and more things.
It's that geographic that you show.
It's a really nice way to put it.
So there's some peaks that,
and there's an ocean level elevating,
and you solve more and more problems.
But just kind of to take a pause,
and we took a bunch of questions
in a lot of social networks,
and a bunch of people asked
a sort of a slightly different direction on creativity,
on things that perhaps aren't a peak.
Human beings are flawed,
and perhaps better means having contradiction,
being flawed in some way.
So let me sort of start easy, first of all.
So you have a lot of cool equations.
Let me ask, what's your favorite equation, first of all?
I know they're all like your children, but...
- That one.
- Which one is that?
- The Schrodinger equation.
It's the master key of quantum mechanics.
- So the micro world.
So this equation,
it can calculate everything to do with atoms,
molecules, and all the way up to...
- Yeah, so, okay.
So quantum mechanics is certainly
a beautiful, mysterious formulation of our world.
So I'd like to sort of ask you,
just as an example,
it perhaps doesn't have the same beauty as physics does,
but in mathematics, abstract,
the Andrew Wiles who proved the Fermat's last theorem.
So I just saw this recently
and it kind of caught my eye a little bit.
This is 358 years after it was conjectured.
So this very simple formulation,
everybody tried to prove it, everybody failed.
And so here's this guy comes along and eventually proves it
and then fails to prove it and then proves it again in '94.
And he said like the moment when everything connected
into place, in an interview he said,
"It was so indescribably beautiful."
That moment when you finally realized the connecting piece
of two conjectures, he said,
"It was so indescribably beautiful.
It was so simple and so elegant.
I couldn't understand how I'd missed it.
And I just stared at it in disbelief for 20 minutes.
Then during the day I walked around the department
and I'd keep coming back to my desk,
looking to see if it was still there.
It was still there.
I couldn't contain myself.
I was so excited.
It was the most important moment of my working life.
Nothing I ever do again will mean as much."
So that particular moment,
and it kind of made me think of what would it take?
And I think we have all been there at small levels.
Maybe let me ask,
have you had a moment like that in your life
where you just had an idea?
It's like, wow, yes.
- I wouldn't mention myself in the same breath
as Andrew Wiles,
but I've certainly had a number of aha moments
when I realized something very cool about physics.
Just completely made my head explode.
In fact, some of my favorite discoveries I made,
I later realized that they had been discovered earlier
by someone who sometimes got quite famous for it.
So it's too late for me to even publish it,
but that doesn't diminish in any way
the emotional experience you have when you realize it.
Like, wow.
- Yeah.
So what would it take in that moment, that wow,
that was yours in that moment.
So what do you think it takes for an intelligent system,
an AGI system, an AI system to have a moment like that?
- That's a tricky question
'cause there are actually two parts to it, right?
One of them is, can it accomplish that proof?
Can it prove that you can never write
A to the N plus B to the N equals Z to the N
for all integers, et cetera, et cetera,
when N is bigger than two?
That's simply a question about intelligence.
Can you build machines that are that intelligent?
And I think by the time we get a machine
that can independently come up with that level of proofs,
probably quite close to AGI.
The second question is a question about consciousness.
When will we, how likely is it that such a machine
will actually have any experience at all
as opposed to just being like a zombie?
And would we expect it to have
some sort of emotional response to this
or anything at all akin to human emotion
where when it accomplishes its machine goal,
it views it as somehow something very positive
and sublime and deeply meaningful?
I would certainly hope that if in the future
we do create machines that are our peers
or even our descendants,
I would certainly hope that they do have
this sort of sublime appreciation of life.
In a way, my absolutely worst nightmare would be that
at some point in the future,
the distant future, maybe our cosmos is teeming
with all this post-biological life
doing all the seemingly cool stuff.
And maybe the last humans,
by the time our species eventually fizzles out,
§05Transcript · 36:20–46:01
we'll be like, well, that's okay
'cause we're so proud of our descendants here.
And look what all the...
My worst nightmare is that we haven't solved
the consciousness problem and we haven't realized
that these are all the zombies.
They're not aware of anything any more
than a tape recorder hasn't any kind of experience.
So the whole thing has just become a play for empty benches.
That would be like the ultimate zombie apocalypse.
So I would much rather in that case
that we have these beings which can really appreciate
how amazing it is.
- And in that picture,
what would be the role of creativity?
A few people ask about creativity.
When you think about intelligence,
I mean, certainly the story you told
at the beginning of your book involved
creating movies and so on.
So making money, you can make a lot of money
in our modern world with music and movies.
So if you are an intelligent system,
you may want to get good at that.
But that's not necessarily what I mean by creativity.
Is it important on that complex goals
where the sea is rising for there to be something creative
or am I being very human centric
and thinking creativity is somehow special
relative to intelligence?
- My hunch is that we should think of creativity
simply as an aspect of intelligence.
And we have to be very careful with human vanity
where we have this tendency to very often want to say,
as soon as machines can do something,
we try to diminish it and say,
oh, but that's not like real intelligence.
Isn't it creative or this or that?
The other thing,
if we ask ourselves to write down a definition
of what we actually mean by being creative,
what we mean by Andrew Wiles, what he did there,
for example, don't we often mean
that someone takes a very unexpected leap
and it's not like taking 573 and multiplying it by 224
by just a step of straightforward cookbook like rules.
You can maybe make a connection between two things
that people have never thought was connected.
- It's very surprising.
- Or something like that.
I think this is an aspect of intelligence
and this is actually one of the most important aspects of it.
Maybe the reason we humans tend to be better at it
than traditional computers is because it's something
that comes more naturally if you're a neural network
than if you're a traditional logic gate-based
computer machine.
We physically have all these connections
and if you activate here, activate here, activate here,
ping!
My hunch is that if we ever build a machine
where you could just give it the task,
hey, you say, hey, I just realized
I want to travel around the world instead this month.
Can you teach my AGI course for me?
And it's like, okay, I'll do it.
And it does everything that you would have done
and improvises and stuff.
That would, in my mind, involve a lot of creativity.
- Yeah, so it's actually a beautiful way to put it.
I think we do try to grasp at the definition of intelligence
and the definition of intelligence is everything
we don't understand how to build.
So we as humans try to find things
that we have and machines don't have.
And maybe creativity is just one of the things,
one of the words we use to describe that.
That's a really interesting way to put it.
- I don't think we need to be that defensive.
I don't think anything good comes out of saying,
oh, we're somehow special.
Contrary-wise, there are many examples in history
of where trying to pretend that we're somehow superior
to all other intelligent beings
has led to pretty bad results, right?
Nazi Germany, they said that they were somehow superior
to other people.
Today, we still do a lot of cruelty to animals
by saying that we're so superior somehow
and they can't feel pain.
Slavery was justified by the same kind
of just really weak arguments.
And I don't think if we actually go ahead
and build artificial general intelligence,
it can do things better than us.
I don't think we should try to found our self-worth
on some sort of bogus claims of superiority
in terms of our intelligence.
I think we should instead find our calling
and the meaning of life from the experiences that we have.
I can have very meaningful experiences
even if there are other people who are smarter than me.
When I go to a faculty meeting here
and we're talking about something
and then I suddenly realize, oh, he has an old prize,
he has an old prize, he has an old prize.
I don't have one.
Does that make me enjoy life any less
or enjoy talking to those people less?
Of course not.
And contrary wise, I feel very honored
and privileged to get to interact
with other very intelligent beings
that are better than me at a lot of stuff.
So I don't think there's any reason
why we can't have the same approach
with intelligent machines.
- That's a really interesting.
So people don't often think about that.
They think about when there's going,
if there's machines that are more intelligent,
you naturally think that that's not going to be
a beneficial type of intelligence.
You don't realize it could be,
like peers with Nobel prizes
that would be just fun to talk with.
And they might be clever about certain topics
and you can have fun having a few drinks with them.
- Well, also, another example we can all relate to
of why it doesn't have to be a terrible thing
to be in presence of people
who are even smarter than us all around
is when you and I were both two years old,
I mean, our parents were much more intelligent than us.
Worked out okay.
Because their goals were aligned with our goals.
And that I think is really the number one key issue
we have to solve.
- It's value aligned.
- Value aligned, the value alignment problem, exactly.
'Cause people who see too many Hollywood movies
with lousy science fiction plot lines,
they worry about the wrong thing, right?
They worry about some machines suddenly turning evil.
It's not malice that is the concern, it's competence.
By definition, intelligent makes you very competent.
If you have a more intelligent goal playing,
computer playing is the less intelligent one.
And when we define intelligence
as the ability to accomplish goal winning, right?
It's gonna be the more intelligent one that wins.
And if you have a human and then you have an AGI
that's more intelligent than always,
and they have different goals,
guess who's gonna get their way, right?
So I was just reading about this particular rhinoceros
species that was driven extinct just a few years ago.
And a bummer, I was looking at this cute picture
of a mommy rhinoceros with its child,
and why did we humans drive it to extinction?
Wasn't because we were evil rhino haters as a whole,
it was just because our goals weren't aligned
with those of the rhinoceros,
and it didn't work out so well for the rhinoceros
'cause we were more intelligent, right?
So I think it's just so important
that if we ever do build AGI,
before we unleash anything,
we have to make sure that it learns to understand our goals,
and that it adopts our goals, and it retains those goals.
- So the cool, interesting problem there
is us as human beings trying to formulate our values.
So you could think of the United States Constitution
as a way that people sat down,
at the time a bunch of white men,
but which is a good example, we should say,
they formulated the goals for this country,
and a lot of people agree that those goals
actually held up pretty well.
That's an interesting formulation of values
and failed miserably in other ways.
So for the value alignment problem and the solution to it,
we have to be able to put on paper
or in a program, human values.
How difficult do you think that is?
- Very, but it's so important.
We really have to give it our best.
And it's difficult for two separate reasons.
There's the technical value alignment problem,
of figuring out just how to make machines understand
their goals, adopt them and retain them.
And then there's the separate part of it,
the philosophical part, whose values anyway?
And since it's not like we have any great consensus
on this planet on values,
what mechanism should we create then to aggregate
and decide, okay, what's a good compromise?
That second discussion can't just be left
to tech nerds like myself, right?
- That's right.
§06Transcript · 46:02–54:38
- If we refuse to talk about it and then AGI gets built,
who's going to be actually making the decision
about whose values?
It's going to be a bunch of dudes in some tech company.
Are they necessarily so representative of all of humankind
that we want to just entrust it to them?
Are they even uniquely qualified to speak
to future human happiness just because they're good
at programming AI?
I'd much rather have this be a really inclusive
conversation.
But do you think it's possible sort of,
so you create a beautiful vision that includes
sort of the diversity, cultural diversity
and various perspectives on discussing rights, freedoms,
human dignity, but how hard is it to come to that consensus?
Do you think it's certainly a really important thing
that we should all try to do,
but do you think it's feasible?
- I think there's no better way to guarantee failure
than to refuse to talk about it or refuse to try.
And I also think it's a really bad strategy to say,
okay, let's first have a discussion for a long time.
And then once we've reached complete consensus,
then we'll try to load it into some machine.
No, we shouldn't let perfect be the enemy of good.
Instead, we should start with the kindergarten ethics
that pretty much everybody agrees on
and put that into our machines now.
We're not doing that even.
Look at the, you know,
anyone who builds a passenger aircraft
wants it to never under any circumstances
to fly into a building or a mountain, right?
Yet the September 11 hijackers were able to do that.
And even more embarrassingly, you know,
Andreas Lubitz, this depressed German wings pilot,
when he flew his passenger jet into the Alps,
killing over a hundred people,
he just told the autopilot to do it.
He told the freaking computer
to change the altitude to a hundred meters.
And even though it had the GPS maps, everything,
the computer was like, okay.
So we should take those very basic values.
Where the problem is not that we don't agree.
The problem is just we've been too lazy
to try to put it into our machines
and make sure that from now on airplanes will just,
which all have computers in them,
but we'll just refuse to do something like that.
Go into safe mode, maybe lock the cockpit door,
go to the nearest airport.
And there's so much other technology
in our world as well now, where it's really quite,
becoming quite timely to put in
some sort of very basic values like this.
Even in cars, we've had enough vehicle terrorism attacks
by now where people have driven trucks
and vans into pedestrians.
That is not at all a crazy idea
to just have that hardwired into the car.
'Cause yeah, there are a lot of,
there's always going to be people who,
for some reason want to harm others.
But most of those people don't have the technical expertise
to figure out how to work around something like that.
So if the car just won't do it, it helps.
So let's start there.
- So there's a lot of, that's a great point.
So not chasing perfect.
There's a lot of things that a lot,
that most of the world agrees on.
- Yeah, let's start there.
- Let's start there.
- And then once we start there,
we'll also get into the habit
of having these kinds of conversations about,
okay, what else should we put in here
and have these discussions?
This should be a gradual process then.
- Great, so, but that also means describing these things
and describing it to a machine.
So one thing we had a few conversations with Stephen Wall
from, I'm not sure if you're familiar with Stephen Wall.
- Oh yeah, I know him quite well.
- So he has, he works with a bunch of things,
but cellular automata, these simple computable things,
these computation systems.
And he kind of mentioned that,
we probably have already within these systems
already something that's AGI.
Meaning like, we just don't know it
because we can't talk to it.
So if you give me this chance to try,
to try to at least form a question out of this is,
I think it's an interesting idea
to think that we can have intelligent systems,
but we don't know how to describe something to them
and they can't communicate with us.
I know you're doing a little bit of work
in explainable AI, trying to get AI to explain itself.
So what are your thoughts of natural language processing
or some kind of other communication?
How does the AI explain something to us?
How do we explain something to it, to machines?
Or you think of it differently?
- So there are two separate parts to your question there.
One of them has to do with communication,
which is super interesting, and we'll get to that in a sec.
The other is whether we already have AGI,
but we just haven't noticed it there.
There I beg to differ.
I don't think there's anything in any cellular automaton
or anything or the internet itself or whatever
that has artificial general intelligence
and that it can really do exactly everything
we humans can do better.
I think the day that happens,
when that happens, we will very soon notice.
We'll probably notice even before
because in a very, very big way.
But for the second part though-
- Wait, can I just, sorry.
So, 'cause you have this beautiful way
to formulating consciousness as information processing.
You can think of intelligence as information processing.
You can think of the entire universe as these particles
and these systems roaming around
that have this information processing power.
You don't think there is something with the power
to process information in the way
that we human beings do that's out there
that needs to be sort of connected to?
It seems a little bit philosophical perhaps,
but there's something compelling to the idea
that the power is already there,
which is the focus should be more
on being able to communicate with it.
- Well, I agree that in a certain sense,
the hardware processing power is already out there
because our universe itself,
can think of it as being a computer already, right?
It's constantly computing what water waves,
how it devolved the water waves and the river Charles
and how to move the air molecules around.
Seth Lloyd has pointed out, my colleague here,
that you can even in a very rigorous way
think of our entire universe as being a quantum computer.
It's pretty clear that our universe supports
this amazing processing power
because you can even within this physics computer
that we live in, right?
We can even build actually laptops and stuff.
So clearly the power is there.
It's just that most of the compute power that nature has,
it's in my opinion, kind of wasting on boring stuff
like simulating yet another ocean wave somewhere
where no one is even looking, right?
So in a sense of what life does,
what we are doing when we build computers
is we're re-channeling all this compute
that nature is doing anyway
into doing things that are more interesting
than just yet another ocean wave,
and let's do something cool here.
So the raw hardware power is there for sure.
And even just like computing what's going to happen
for the next five seconds in this water bottle,
takes a ridiculous amount of compute
if you do it on a human computer.
This water bottle just did it.
But that does not mean that this water bottle has AGI
because AGI means it should also be able to
like I've written my book, done this interview.
- Yes.
- And I don't think it's just communication problems.
I don't really know.
I don't think it can do it.
- Although Buddhists say when they watch the water
and that there is some beauty,
that there's some depth and beauty in nature
that they can communicate with.
- Communication is also very important though
because I mean, look, part of my job is being a teacher
and I know some very intelligent professors even
who just have a better hard time communicating.
They come up with all these brilliant ideas,
but to communicate with somebody else,
you have to also be able to simulate their own mind.
- Yes, empathy.
- Build well enough and understand model of their mind
that you can say things that they will understand.
And that's quite difficult.
And that's why today it's so frustrating
if you have a computer that makes some cancer diagnosis
and you ask it, well, why are you saying
I should have a surgery?
And if it can only reply,
I was trained on five terabytes of data
§07Transcript · 54:40–1:03:41
and this is my diagnosis, boop, boop, beep, beep.
Doesn't really instill a lot of confidence, right?
- Right.
- So I think we have a lot of work to do
on communication there.
- So what kind of, I think you're doing a little bit work
in explainable AI.
What do you think are the most promising avenues?
Is it mostly about sort of the Alexa problem
of natural language processing,
of being able to actually use human interpretable methods
of communication?
So being able to talk to a system and it talk back to you,
or is there some more fundamental problems to be solved?
- I think it's all of the above.
Human, the natural language processing
is obviously important,
but there are also more nerdy fundamental problems.
Like if you take, you play chess?
- Of course, I'm Russian.
I have to.
- You speak Russian?
- Yes, I speak Russian.
- Great, I didn't know.
- When did you learn Russian?
- I speak Russian very poorly.
I'm only an autodidact.
I bought a book, Teach Yourself Russian,
read a lot, but it was very difficult.
- Wow.
- That's why I speak so poorly.
- How many languages do you know?
Wow, that's really impressive.
- I don't know, my wife has some calculations.
But my point was, if you play chess,
have you looked at the AlphaZero games?
- Oh, the actual games, no.
Check it out, some of them are just mind-blowing.
Really beautiful.
And if you ask, how did it do that?
You go talk to Demis Hassabis and others from DeepMind,
all they'll ultimately be able to give you
is big tables of numbers,
matrices that define the neural network.
And you can stare at these tables of numbers
until your face turned blue.
And you're not going to understand much
about why it made that move.
And even if you have natural language processing
that can tell you in human language
about, oh, five, seven, .28,
still not going to really help.
So I think there's a whole spectrum of fun challenges
that are involved in taking a computation
that does intelligent things
and transforming it into something equally good,
equally intelligent, but that's more understandable.
And I think that's really valuable
because I think as we put machines in charge
of ever more infrastructure in our world,
the power grid, the trading on the stock market,
weapon systems, and so on,
it's absolutely crucial that we can trust these AIs
to do all we want.
And trust really comes from understanding
in a very fundamental way.
And that's why I'm working on this
because I think the more,
if we're going to have some hope of ensuring
that machines have adopted our goals
and that they're going to retain them,
that kind of trust, I think,
needs to be based on things you can actually understand,
preferably even make, preferably even prove theorems on.
Even with a self-driving car, right?
If someone just tells you it's been trained
on tons of data and it never crashed,
it's less reassuring than if someone actually has a proof.
Maybe it's a computer verified proof,
but still it says that under no circumstances
is this car just going to swerve into oncoming traffic.
- And that kind of information helps build trust
and helps build the alignment of goals,
at least awareness that your goals, your values are aligned.
- And I think even in the very short term,
if you look at how, today, right?
This absolutely pathetic state of cybersecurity that we have,
where is it, three billion Yahoo accounts were hacked,
almost every American's credit card and so on.
Why is this happening?
It's ultimately happening because we have software
that nobody fully understood how it worked.
That's why the bugs hadn't been found, right?
And I think AI can be used very effectively for offense,
for hacking, but it can also be used for defense,
hopefully automating verifiability
and creating systems that are built in different ways
so you can actually prove things about them.
And it's important.
- So speaking of software
that nobody understands how it works,
of course, a bunch of people ask about your paper,
about your thoughts of why does deep
and cheap learning work so well?
That's the paper, but what are your thoughts
on deep learning, these kind of simplified models
of our own brains have been able to do some successful
perception work, pattern recognition work,
and now with alpha zero and so on, do some clever things.
What are your thoughts about the promise,
limitations of this piece?
- Great.
I think there are a number of very important insights,
very important lessons we can already draw
from these kinds of successes.
One of them is when you look at the human brain
and you see it's very complicated, 10th of 11 neurons,
and there are all these different kinds of neurons
and yada, yada, and there's been this long debate
about whether the fact that we have dozens
of different kinds is actually necessary for intelligence.
We can now, I think, quite convincingly answer
that question of no, it's enough to have just one kind.
If you look under the hood of alpha zero,
there's only one kind of neuron
and it's ridiculously simple, simple mathematical thing.
So it's not, it's just like in physics,
it's not, if you have a gas with waves in it,
it's not the detailed nature of the molecules that matter,
it's the collective behavior somehow.
Similarly, it's this higher level structure
of the network that matters,
not that you have 20 kinds of neurons.
I think our brain is such a complicated mess
because it wasn't evolved just to be intelligent,
it was evolved to also be self-assembling
and self-repairing and evolutionarily attainable.
- Patches and so on.
- So I think it's pretty, my hunch is
that we're gonna understand how to build AGI
before we fully understand how our brains work.
Just like we understood how to build flying machines
long before we were able to build a mechanical bird.
- Yeah, that's right, you've given the example exactly
of mechanical birds and airplanes
and airplanes do a pretty good job of flying
without really mimicking bird flight.
- And even now after a hundred years later,
did you see the TED talk with this German mechanical bird?
- I heard you mention it.
- Check it out, it's amazing.
But even after that, right,
we still don't fly in mechanical birds
because it turned out the way we came up with was simpler
and it's better for our purposes.
And I think it might be the same there.
That's one lesson.
Another lesson, which is more what our paper was about.
First, I as a physicist thought it was fascinating
how there's a very close mathematical relationship
actually between artificial neural networks
and a lot of things that we've studied for in physics
that go by nerdy names
like the renormalization group equation
and Hamiltonians and yada, yada, yada.
And when you look a little more closely at this,
you have, at first I was like,
whoa, there's something crazy here that doesn't make sense.
'Cause we know that if you even want to build
a super simple neural network,
tell apart cat pictures and dog pictures, right?
That you can do that very, very well now.
But if you think about it a little bit,
you convince yourself it must be impossible
because if I have one megapixel,
even if each pixel is just black or white,
there's two to the power of 1 million possible images,
which is way more than there are atoms in our universe.
So in order to, and then for each one of those,
I have to assign a number,
which is the probability that it's a dog.
So an arbitrary function of images
is a list of more numbers than there are atoms
in our universe.
So clearly I can't store that under the hood of my GPU
or my computer, yet somehow it works.
So what does that mean?
Well, it means that out of all of the problems
that you could try to solve with a neural network,
almost all of them are impossible to solve
with a reasonably sized one.
But then what we showed in our paper
was that the fraction of all the problems
that you could possibly pose,
that we actually care about given the laws of physics,
is also an infinitesimally tiny little part.
And amazingly, they're basically the same part.
- Yeah, it's almost like our world was created for,
I mean, they kind of come together.
- Yeah, but you could say maybe where the world created,
§08Transcript · 1:03:44–1:12:05
the world was created for us,
but I have a more modest interpretation,
which is that instead evolution endowed us
with neural networks precisely for that reason.
'Cause this particular architecture,
as opposed to the one in your laptop,
is very, very well adapted to solving the kind of problems
that nature kept presenting our ancestors with, right?
So it makes sense that why do we have a brain
in the first place?
It's to be able to make predictions
about the future and so on.
So if we had a sucky system,
which could never solve it, it wouldn't have evolved.
So this is, I think, a very beautiful fact.
We also realize that there's been earlier work
on why deeper networks are good,
but we were able to show an additional cool fact there,
which is that even incredibly simple problems,
like suppose I give you a thousand numbers
and ask you to multiply them together,
you can write a few lines of code, boom, done, trivial.
If you just try to do that with a neural network
that has only one single hidden layer in it,
you can do it, but you're gonna need
two to the power of a thousand neurons.
- Yeah. - To multiply
a thousand numbers, which is again,
more neurons than there are atoms in our universe.
So that's fascinating.
But if you allow yourself,
make it a deep network of many layers,
you only need 4,000 neurons.
It's perfectly feasible.
So.
- That's really interesting.
Yeah, so on another architecture type,
I mean, you mentioned Schrodinger's equation
and what are your thoughts about quantum computing
and the role of this kind of computational unit
in creating an intelligence system?
- In some Hollywood movies,
that I will not mention by name
'cause I don't wanna spoil them,
the way they get AGI is building a quantum computer.
- Yeah.
- Because the word quantum sounds cool and so on.
- That's right.
- First of all, I think we don't need quantum computers
to build AGI.
I suspect your brain is not quantum computer
in any profound sense.
- So you don't-
- I even wrote a paper about that many years ago.
I calculated the decoherence,
so-called decoherence time,
how long it takes until the quantum computerness
of what your neurons are doing gets erased
by just random noise from the environment.
And it's about 10 to the minus 21 seconds.
So as cool as it would be
to have a quantum computer in my head,
I don't think that fast.
On the other hand,
there are very cool things you could do
with quantum computers,
or I think we'll be able to do soon
when we get bigger ones,
that might actually help machine learning
do even better than the brain.
So for example,
one, this is just a moonshot,
but learning is very much
same thing as search.
If you're trying to train a neural network
to get really learned,
to do something really well,
you have some loss function,
you have a bunch of knobs you can turn,
represented by a bunch of numbers,
and you're trying to tweak them
so that it becomes as good as possible at this thing.
So if you think of a landscape
with some valley,
where each dimension of the landscape
corresponds to some number you can change,
you're trying to find the minimum.
And it's well known that
if you have a very high dimensional landscape,
complicated things,
it's super hard to find the minimum, right?
Quantum mechanics is amazingly good at this.
If I want to know what's the lowest energy state
this water can possibly have,
incredibly hard to compute,
but nature will happily figure this out for you
if you just cool it down,
make it very, very cold.
If you put a ball somewhere,
it'll roll down to its minimum,
and this happens metaphorically
at the energy landscape too.
And quantum mechanics even uses some clever tricks,
which today's machine learning systems don't.
Like, if you're trying to find the minimum
and you get stuck in a little local minimum here,
in quantum mechanics,
you can actually tunnel through the barrier
and get unstuck again.
- That's really interesting.
- Yeah, so it may be, for example,
we'll one day use quantum computers
that help train neural networks better.
- That's really interesting.
Okay, so as a component of kind of the learning process,
for example.
- Yeah.
- Let me ask, sort of wrapping up here a little bit,
let me return to the questions of our human nature
and love, as I mentioned.
So do you think,
you mentioned sort of a helper robot,
but you can think of also personal robots.
Do you think the way we human beings fall in love
and get connected to each other
is possible to achieve in an AI system,
in human level AI intelligence system?
Do you think we would ever see that kind of connection?
Or, you know, in all this discussion
about solving complex goals,
is this kind of human social connection,
do you think that's one of the goals
on the peaks and valleys that,
with the raising sea levels that we'll be able to achieve?
Or do you think that's something that's ultimately,
or at least in the short term,
relative to the other goals is not achievable?
- I think it's all possible.
And I mean, in recent,
there's a very wide range of guesses, as you know,
among AI researchers, when we're going to get AGI.
Some people, you know, like our friend, Rodney Brooks,
says it's going to be hundreds of years at least.
And then there are many others
who think it's going to happen much sooner.
And recent polls,
maybe half or so of AI researchers think
we're going to get AGI within decades.
So if that happens, of course,
then I think these things are all possible.
But in terms of whether it will happen,
I think we shouldn't spend so much time asking,
what do we think will happen in the future?
As if we are just some sort of pathetic,
passive bystanders, you know,
waiting for the future to happen to us.
Hey, we're the ones creating this future, right?
So we should be proactive about it
and ask ourselves what sort of future
we would like to have happen.
- That's right.
- Trying to make it like that.
Well, what I prefer,
it's just some sort of incredibly boring zombie-like future
where there's all these mechanical things happening
and there's no passion, no emotion, no experience, maybe even.
No, I would, of course, much rather prefer it
if all the things that we find,
that we value the most about humanity
are subjective experience, passion, inspiration, love.
If we can create a future where those things do exist,
I think ultimately it's not our universe
giving meaning to us,
it's us giving meaning to our universe.
And if we build more advanced intelligence,
let's make sure we build it in such a way
that meaning is part of it.
- A lot of people that seriously study this problem
and think of it from different angles
have trouble in the majority of cases,
if they think through that happen,
are the ones that are not beneficial to humanity.
- Right.
- And so, yeah, so what are your thoughts?
What should people,
I really don't like people to be terrified.
What's a way for people to think about it
in a way that, in a way we can solve it
and we can make it better?
- No, I don't think panicking is gonna help in any way.
It's not gonna increase chances of things going well either.
Even if you are in a situation where there is a real threat,
does it help if everybody just freaks out?
- Right.
- No, of course not.
I think, yeah, there are of course ways
in which things can go horribly wrong.
First of all, it's important when we think about this thing,
about the problems and risks,
to also remember how huge the upsides can be
§09Transcript · 1:12:07–1:21:19
if we get it right, right?
Everything we love about society and civilization
is a product of intelligence.
So if we can amplify our intelligence
with machine intelligence and not anymore lose our loved one
to what we're told is an uncurable disease
and things like this, of course, we should aspire to that.
So that can be a motivator, I think,
reminding ourselves that the reason we try to solve problems
is not just because we're trying to avoid gloom,
but because we're trying to do something great.
But then in terms of the risks,
I think the really important question is to ask,
what can we do today that will actually help
make the outcome good, right?
And dismissing the risk is not one of them.
I find it quite funny often when I'm in discussion panels
about these things, how the people who work for companies
always be like, oh, nothing to worry about,
nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about.
And it's only academics sometimes express concerns.
That's not surprising at all if you think about it.
Upton Sinclair quipped, right,
that it's hard to make a man believe in something
when his income depends on not believing in it.
And frankly, we know a lot of these people in companies
that they're just as concerned as anyone else.
But if you're the CEO of a company,
that's not something you want to go on record saying
when you have silly journalists
who are going to put a picture of a Terminator robot
when they quote you.
So the issues are real.
And the way I think about what the issue is,
is basically, the real choice we have is,
first of all, are we going to just dismiss this, the risks,
and say, well, let's just go ahead and build machines
that can do everything we can do better and cheaper.
Let's just make ourselves obsolete as fast as possible.
What could possibly go wrong?
That's one attitude.
The opposite attitude, I think, is to say,
here's this incredible potential.
Let's think about what kind of future
we're really, really excited about.
What are the shared goals that we can really aspire towards?
And then let's think really hard
about how we can actually get there.
And it's to start with,
don't start thinking about the risks.
Start thinking about the goals.
- Goals, yeah.
- And then when you do that,
then you can think about the obstacles you want to avoid.
I often get students coming in right here into my office
for career advice.
I always ask them this very question.
Where do you want to be in the future?
If all she can say is, oh, maybe I'll have cancer.
Maybe I'll get run over by a truck.
- Focus on the obstacles instead of the goals.
- She's just going to end up a hypochondriac paranoid.
Whereas if she comes in and fire in her eyes
and is like, I want to be there.
And then we can talk about the obstacles
and see how we can circumvent them.
That's, I think, a much, much healthier attitude.
- That's really well put.
And I feel it's very challenging to come up with a vision
for the future, which we are unequivocally excited about.
I'm not just talking now in the vague terms,
like, yeah, let's cure cancer, fine.
Talking about what kind of society do we want to create?
What do we want it to mean to be human in the age of AI,
in the age of AGI?
So if we can have this conversation,
broad, inclusive conversation,
and gradually start converging towards some future
that with some direction, at least,
that we want to steer towards,
then we'll be much more motivated
to constructively take on the obstacles.
And I think if I had to,
if I try to wrap this up in a more succinct way,
I think we can all agree already now
that we should aspire to build AGI,
that doesn't overpower us, but that empowers us.
- And think of the many various ways that can do that,
whether that's from my side of the world
of autonomous vehicles.
I'm personally actually from the camp
that believes there's human level intelligence is required
to achieve something like vehicles
that would actually be something we would enjoy using
and being part of.
So that's the one example.
And certainly there's a lot of other types of robots
in medicine and so on.
So focusing on those and then coming up with the obstacles,
coming up with the ways that that can go wrong
and solving those one at a time.
- And just because you can build an autonomous vehicle,
even if you could build one that would drive this final,
maybe there are some things in life
that we would actually want to do ourselves.
- That's right.
- Like for example,
if you think of our society as a whole,
there's some things that we find very meaningful to do.
And that doesn't mean we have to stop doing them
just because machines can do them better.
I'm not gonna stop playing tennis
just the day someone built a tennis robot and beat me.
- People are still playing chess and even go.
- Yeah, and in the very near term,
even some people are advocating basic income, replace jobs.
But if the government is gonna be willing
to just hand out cash to people for doing nothing,
then one should also seriously consider
whether the government should also just hire
a lot more teachers and nurses and the kind of jobs
which people often find great fulfillment in doing.
I get very tired of hearing politicians saying,
oh, we can't afford hiring more teachers,
but we're gonna maybe have basic income.
If we can have more serious research and thought
into what gives meaning to our lives,
the jobs give so much more than income.
And then think about in the future,
what are the roles that we wanna have people
continually feeling empowered by machines?
- And I think sort of, I come from Russia,
from the Soviet Union.
And I think for a lot of people in the 20th century,
going to the moon, going to space was an inspiring thing.
I feel like the universe of the mind,
so AI, understanding, creating intelligence
is that for the 21st century.
So it's really surprising.
And I've heard you mention this.
It's really surprising to me,
both on the research funding side,
that it's not funded as greatly as it could be,
but most importantly on the politician side,
that it's not part of the public discourse,
except in the killer bots, Terminator kind of view,
that people are not yet, I think,
perhaps excited by the possible positive future
that we can build together.
- And we should be, because politicians usually
just focus on the next election cycle, right?
The single most important thing I feel we humans have learned
in the entire history of science
is they were the masters of underestimation.
We underestimated the size of our cosmos,
again and again, realizing that everything we thought existed
was just a small part of something grander, right?
Planet, solar system, a galaxy,
clusters of galaxies, universe.
And we now know that the future has just
so much more potential than our ancestors
could ever have dreamt of.
This cosmos, imagine if all of Earth
was completely devoid of life,
except for Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Wouldn't it be kind of lame if all we ever aspired to
was to stay in Cambridge, Massachusetts forever
and then go extinct in one week,
even though Earth was going to continue on for longer?
That sort of attitude I think we have now
on the cosmic scale, life can flourish on Earth,
not for four years, but for billions of years.
I can even tell you about how to move it out of harm's way
when the sun gets too hot.
And then we have so much more resources out here,
which today, maybe there are a lot of other planets
with bacteria or cow-like life on them,
but most of this, all this opportunity
seems as far as we can tell to be largely dead,
like the Sahara desert.
And yet we have the opportunity to help life flourish
around this for billions of years.
So let's quit squabbling about
whether some little border should be drawn
one mile to the left or right,
and look up into the skies and realize,
hey, we can do such incredible things.
- Yeah, and that's, I think, why it's really exciting
that you and others are connected
with some of the work Elon Musk is doing,
because he's literally going out into that space,
really exploring our universe, and it's wonderful.
- That is exactly why Elon Musk is so misunderstood, right?
Misconstrued him as some kind of pessimistic doomsayer.
The reason he cares so much about AI safety
is because he, more than almost anyone else,
appreciates these amazing opportunities that will squander
if we wipe out out here on earth.
And we're not just gonna wipe out the next generation,
but all generations,
§10Transcript · 1:21:20–1:22:51
and this incredible opportunity that's out there,
and that would really be a waste.
And AI, for people who think
that it would be better to do without technology,
let me just mention that if we don't improve our technology,
the question isn't whether humanity is gonna go extinct.
The question is just whether we're gonna get taken out
by the next big asteroid, or the next super volcano,
or something else dumb that we could easily prevent
with more tech, right?
And if we want life to flourish throughout the cosmos,
AI is the key to it.
As I mentioned in a lot of detail in my book right there,
even many of the most inspired sci-fi writers,
I feel, have totally underestimated the opportunities
for space travel, especially to other galaxies,
because they weren't thinking about the possibility of AGI,
which just makes it so much easier.
- Right, yeah.
So that goes to your view of AGI that enables our progress,
that enables a better life.
So that's a beautiful way to put it,
and something to strive for.
So Max, thank you so much.
Thank you for your time today.
It's been awesome.
- Thank you so much.
- Thanks.
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