Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour (Reforge)

Lenny Rachitsky opens with the familiar complaint that SEO and word of mouth no longer provide easy growth. Brian Balfour argues that the more important change is structural: the conditions for a new distribution platform are forming, and his current prediction is that ChatGPT will become that platform. He presents this as an opportunity that companies should approach early, before the channel becomes crowded.

Balfour frames participation as a competitive necessity rather than an optional experiment. Platform cycles are shortening, so a company that waits may lose both distribution and the ability to meet changing customer expectations. A late-stage company can spread several bets, but a startup has scarce resources and usually must choose one platform and commit. The examples of Zynga and other companies that grew through Facebook illustrate the upside of entering an emerging channel early.

The central distinction is between building a great product and building distribution for that product. Balfour cites Alex Rampell's description of startups as a race to obtain distribution before an incumbent can copy them. That race has become harder because incumbents copy faster, organic traffic from established platforms has contracted, and AI-assisted software development has increased the number of competing startups. Cursor is an exception that benefited from AI-driven early-adopter interest, but Balfour treats it as an unusual case rather than a general solution.

Balfour connects the current moment to earlier technology shifts. Internet, cloud, mobile, and social technologies did not all create new distribution mechanisms, but the most consequential shifts often did. His claim is that the AI technology shift has so far lacked a corresponding distribution shift; now, several conditions for one are appearing. He advises listeners to understand the rules of the platform cycle before trying to win within it.

Balfour is deliberately less certain about the identity of the winner than about the existence of the cycle. He predicts ChatGPT because the company appears to be preparing both a stronger search experience and, more importantly, a third-party platform on top of ChatGPT. He also acknowledges that this prediction could be wrong. The durable conclusion is that some new distribution platform will emerge and will follow a recurring pattern, so companies should learn how to evaluate where and how to place their bets.