Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

The episode opens with a comic sketch of the hosts squabbling over a borrowed cashmere sweater, a 1986 wine and who is staying at whose house. It closes with jokes about taking whatever is not bolted down, such as a loveseat one host says he carried out the back door.

Jason takes the week off from moderating, and another host moderates. The moderator announces the All In Holiday Spectacular for Saturday, December 7, around 5 PM at San Francisco's Palace of Fine Arts, with tickets on sale that day. The plan is a stage show with guests, then an open bar, food trucks, a DJ and a casino party. Sacks asks whether attendance is required and gets a 'No comment.' in reply. The rest of the segment is banter about a dinner of picanha, a cut one host rates above ribeye.

The moderator frames the puzzle. The 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 3.5% in September, ahead of the 50-basis-point cut, and was above 4.25% on the morning of recording. Gold rose from about $2,000 to $2,750 an ounce this year. The S&P 500 sits at an all-time high, and Bitcoin is about $68,000.

Chamath reads this as markets pricing a Trump win. He points to a strong dollar, rising back-end yields and bond-market put-call skew weighted toward puts. In his view the Trump economic plan promises more growth than the Harris plan, which brings more inflation and a higher risk premium. He calls the reading an observation, not a preference. Equities benefit in the short run, and gold and Bitcoin hedge the medium-term inflation.

All roads lead to inflation.

In the clip, Paul Tudor Jones says he is long gold, Bitcoin and commodities and owns no fixed income. Sacks reads the same line differently. He says the move is less about the election than about the Fed's September 18 cut. By his account the 10-year yield has risen 60 basis points since then, and only the 2000 and 2008 cycles began with a 50-basis-point cut, both near recessions, while Powell described a strong economy. He adds that core CPI came in slightly above expectations, and cites Druckenmiller as holding a short position of about 20% in Treasuries.