Philippe Laffont: Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World

The episode opens with banter about a Friday-night dinner in Miami. The restaurant is called Shiso in most of the transcript (the owner's name appears as "Shimov"). It is described as an Asian fusion place with "great sushi" and a yellowtail dish the group praised. According to the story, the owner is a fan of the show and refused to let the group pay after they "ran up a hell of a bill."

The rest of the opening is a contested retelling of who proposed what tip. One participant calls it "an absolute bullshit story," and the others promise to "tell the truth." In the version told on air, the advice was to leave a big tip if the meal was comped. A figure of $175 was suggested, which the transcript says was meant as a joke, followed by an offer to "double it" (rendered as "$3.50"). The final account is that one person gave a thousand dollars, the group added another $2,000, and the server received $3,000 for a ten-person dinner. The speaker called that "appropriate" and said she "was ecstatic." The "19,000 pounds of food" line is a joke, not a measurement.

The segment closes with a recommendation to "Go to Shiso if you're in Miami" and a teasing question about whether tips are being adjusted under "no tax on tips."

The main show starts with a recap of the hosts' trip to Formula 1 in Miami, where they held a small stage show. The named guests were Tony Robbins, F1 champion Nico Rosberg, Antonio Gracias (described as working on DOGE), Miami mayor Francis Suarez, and surprise guest Sergey Brin. Brin is described as "working like seventy hours a week over at Alphabet." The Brin conversation was praised as "very casual, very chill," and someone suggested releasing it as a standalone episode.

One participant singled out Gracias. They said he is "uncovering a lot of stuff in the government" with transparency, and that there is "no money" and "no benefit to him individually." Others added that the work is "probably net negative on the margins for him" and, "based on Elon's experience," definitely net negative, because people "don't like having their grift canceled." These are the panel's own assessments. No supporting evidence was offered in this part.

Other reactions were brief. One speaker called all five guests "amazing," looked forward to what Suarez does after being mayor ("Maybe governor"), and described Robbins's energy as "very unique." That speaker said they had met Robbins only a couple of times through Peter Guber during their time in the Warriors ownership group. Another participant said Robbins was hard to get to open up but that the audience loved him and a meditation exercise he led.

Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management (rendered in the transcript as "Philippe Lafonte" of "Kotu Management") is introduced as a first-time guest. Asked whether they knew the show, the reply was that they had been listening for a week "at speed of 1.8," or about 10 to 12 episodes. Asked whether F1 is popular in France, the answer cited Alain Prost and said the sport is "incredibly popular in Europe."

The F1 discussion is mostly social. The group watched from the Trophy House, a three-floor venue with "tons of activations, which means free stuff," and moved a poker game indoors because of rain, which gave them a view of the finish line. One participant said watching F1 live is hard to get into because the cars pass in a few seconds and are followed by "dead time." Players named at the table include Travis from Uber and Phil Hellmuth.

Much of the passage teases Hellmuth: that he "always has to have his hand on a billionaire," that he enthusiastically grabbed Timothée Chalamet when Chalamet stopped by, that he told people he created All-In and was "executive producer for life." One participant clarified that they and Chalamet are not close friends. They had met "a handful of times" as Knicks fans and attended a Pistons–Knicks game together with Ben Stiller. Another joke says the dealer looked like Larry Summers, who supposedly took up dealing after appearing on the show. This is plainly banter, not a factual claim.

The hosts thanked their event partners. OKX is described as the main sponsor of the McLaren F1 team, which won the race, and as having just launched its crypto exchange in the US. Other partners named were Solana, Google Cloud, BVNK, Circle and Polymarket. The hosts said they plan more events of 200 to 500 people. Venues floated were F1 Austin, Vegas, the Super Bowl and possibly the NBA Finals.

Asked which day was most fun, one participant chose Saturday. They described playing poker until 4 a.m. at a friend's house, showering, and going on stage at five. Another participant said a nightclub outing lasted until 5 a.m.

The fourth All-In Summit is announced for September in Los Angeles, with applications at allin.com/summit. The party budget is described in figures: about $900,000 two years ago, $1.2 million last year, and $2 million planned this year, which one participant said is "gonna be more than that." The segment also mentions appearances on Megyn Kelly's show.

The first news topic is the Federal Reserve holding rates steady again. The setup recalls cuts last year of 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points each in November and December. So far in 2025 the Fed has held its range at 4.25 to 4.5%. The Fed's explanation is presented as "wait and see" about the economic effect of the Trump tariffs. Its statement said economic activity "has continued to expand at a solid pace" while warning of stagflation risks: higher unemployment together with higher inflation.

The framing question notes talk of coming layoffs. It also notes that markets have "largely" recovered from the tariff announcement the hosts call "Independence Day," while M&A and hiring remain on hold.

The first response turns the usual reading around. If the Fed cuts because "things are not so great," that is a bad signal. A Fed that holds because the economy is strong is "not that bad of a message." The speaker described a ratio at their firm that divides hard news by sentiment. They said this is "the first time where the news is so good and the sentiment is so bad," and that they think "the economy is doing really well."

Two lessons from the sell-off were cited. First, when markets fell sharply, the government "did budge." Second, the Fed signaled it would not cut "just to bail out the equity market" but would act if market liquidity stopped functioning. The speaker said these two signals brought markets back.

And I think it's more a little bit the case of a tariff correction or a tariff tantrum, but not a tariff crisis.

Asked for specifics, the speaker pointed to consumer spending, which they called "remarkably resilient" despite weak consumer sentiment. Their evidence was Visa and Mastercard earnings plus remarks on company earnings calls that spending stayed strong in April, even after adjusting for buying ahead of tariffs. On sentiment, the speaker argued that it tracks the market rather than leading it. They predicted sentiment would improve within about a month now that the market has risen. That is a forecast, not an observed result.

I don't think sentiment is necessarily a good leading indicator. I almost think it's like a lagging indicator.

Polymarket odds framed the next question: about 84% chance of no change in June, 51% chance of no change in July, and 48% chance of a cut in September. The host also mentioned Trump's back-and-forth over whether he would fire Powell.

The next speaker agreed the Fed will focus on liquidity and raised a subprime chart showing the price-to-book spread between Credit Acceptance and Capital One. Historically, they argued, when subprime lenders' price-to-book ratios climb to highs, a liquidity crisis tends to follow. On that basis they see "blinking yellow lights" the Fed should take seriously.