2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more

The episode opens with an extended comic argument about a holiday party Sacks hosted, where several people, including the host nicknamed Jake, caught COVID. One host frames himself as the second of the group to get it and says he will only state that he caught it at a social function. The others immediately turn it into a running bit, joking that everyone picked up something at the event. The whole exchange is banter rather than any account of actual harm.

The core joke is a dispute over who tested and who did not. The hosts tease Jake, claiming that while Sacks had everyone tested on the way in, Jake walked past the rope declaring he was a bestie and did not need a test, then walked out with COVID. They riff that the one person who flouted the rules got it, calling it poetic justice, and lob partisan jabs calling it a GOP superspreader. Jake insists he tested, that he and his daughter were tested at the door, and accuses the others of misremembering.

The back-and-forth escalates over whether Jake lied then or is lying now. He concedes he may have made a joke about pulling his bestie card to skip the test but maintains he was tested. The others press that he is either lying then or now, and he says he was joking then and is telling the truth now. A side thread jokes about why his wife was not at the party, variously claimed to be home with one or two sick kids, with the group ribbing him as Fredo.

Sacks gives his version: he tested, and a group who arrived early had tested at another event and, by their own account, unknowingly brought it, being the first to turn up positive the next day. He argues it does not matter who brought it because Omicron is everywhere, which prompts a joke mishearing the variant's name. The hosts debate the timeline, noting it takes more than 24 hours to incubate, so if that group tested negative beforehand and positive the next day, they likely carried it in. They dispute whether everyone, including staff and vendors, actually tested at the door. These are the hosts' own recollections, not verified facts.

Jake complains that no one asked how he was feeling and jokes that he is now Superman thanks to his antibodies. He says he is triple-vaxxed with Moderna, felt no risk of hospitalization, had about two days of symptoms, and nine days later was still testing positive. The others mock his symptoms with a crude joke, and the segment ends with the recurring Rainman sign-off bit before the show pivots to its real purpose: the 2022 predictions episode. They note the prior week was the 2021 Bestie Awards, which they felt went well, and tee up the predictions with a mock drumroll. The medical details are his own account.

After a jokey warp-speed transition into 2022 and some redacted inside-baseball banter, the hosts begin the predictions with biggest political winner. Sacks picks Ron DeSantis, noting he is up for reelection in Florida after winning in 2018 by less than 1%, and predicting he will cruise to reelection this time and become the national GOP front-runner.

His reasoning is DeSantis's COVID approach: making the vaccine and antibody treatments available while, in Sacks's framing, treating the population like adults, letting them decide, and keeping businesses and schools open. Sacks argues the rest of the country will come around to that view given Omicron's spread, so the much-maligned DeSantis will look like the big winner a year out. This is his prediction and characterization.

Friedberg names Vladimir Putin, arguing he benefits from rising US-China conflict. He cites a recent Putin call in which Putin called the Chinese leader a dear friend and said relations had reached an unprecedented high, and predicts Putin's economic position as a trade partner and beneficiary of Chinese prosperity will grow as US-China tensions rise, with his Ukraine behavior and NATO relationship making him a stronger global player after years of being held back by sanctions.

A host ribs the others for being fascinated by Putin and questions Russia's actual weight, asking where Russian GDP even ranks and claiming Nigeria has similar inputs but gets no airtime. The group pushes back that Russia matters geopolitically because it has roughly 2,000 nuclear weapons and supplies energy to Europe, even as a fallen empire, and debates whether its leader is a madman. The GDP comparison and the characterizations are the hosts' own assertions.

Chamath's worldwide pick for biggest political winner is Xi Jinping, arguing he is firing on all cylinders and ascendant, with 2022 marking his first full year as effectively ruler for life, so no one knows what he is capable of. He contends Xi will run roughshod domestically and internationally because China controls so much of the supply chain the Western world depends on.

A host disagrees sharply, arguing Xi is actually losing power and is scared, which is why he took out various CEOs and is consolidating control for fear they grow too big and displace him. He points to massive real estate problems that could blow up, the possibility of unrest, and Xi isolating himself. The group debates whether protests are possible given past crackdowns, referencing Tiananmen and the Hong Kong riots.

Sacks reframes the risk: China may get better for Xi but worse for everyone else in China, already worse for its billionaires and tech industry, with the Evergrande debt implosion raising the prospect of contagion spilling out of China next year. He does not think Xi loses his grip but is unsure China has a good year. These are the hosts' predictions.

A host says he too went with DeSantis as a winner, calling him a more palatable candidate than Trump and predicting Trump will not want to run. For biggest political loser he splits it between Biden and Trump, predicting Biden loses the midterms and Trump is damaged by the January 6th matter, bows out, and does not run again. He frames them as the two most important people of the last four years. These are his predictions.

Sacks adds Nancy Pelosi as his biggest political loser, predicting a red wave, the Democrats losing the House as baked in, and Pelosi announcing her retirement shortly after. He argues that despite consequential terms as speaker and never losing a vote, her Build Back Better push forced moderates to vote on $5 trillion in new spending that then failed in the Senate, costing seats and contributing to her own downfall. The hosts riff with jokes about hiring Tucker's writers and a YouTube commenter.