November's CPI, preparing for a downturn, macro outlook, Better.com's botched layoffs & more

The episode opens with a story from Art Basel in Miami. One host recounts being introduced to Beeple, the artist he says had sold about $260 million in NFTs, as a Silicon Valley legend, only for another host to quip "maybe for the next year." The hosts note they are filming late on a Friday, teasing that Chamath has cracked open a bottle of wine, identified as a Bond St. Eden 2002, which they joke will send the show off the rails.

The formal intro follows: episode 58, with the prior week's episode peaking around number 40 in the world, more than 125,000 YouTube subscribers, and about 150,000 views per episode. A host says he scouted All-In Summit locations in Miami and has settled on the venue while working out dates. The usual nicknames are handed out before the show turns to news.

The banter fixes on Chamath's expensive sweater, prompting a long comic riff. A host says he received a direct-message complaint from a listener, described as a very successful white professional, arguing that Chamath's conspicuous consumption of pricey sweaters was turning off the audience. Chamath pushes back that it is odd to be criticized for buying a cashmere sweater while, as he puts it, putting large sums into climate change each year, and that working in biotech, crypto or climate should not require looking shabby. The exchange is played for laughs rather than making a point.

A host repeatedly tries to steer the group back to the news, joking that he has already lost control of the show and asking Chamath not to show up drunk next time. The segment is pure banter, with the hosts agreeing only that they have a lot to cover before finally moving to inflation.

Turning to the economy, a host describes a wave of panic during Art Basel, with people checking Robinhood and Coinbase accounts at two or three in the morning to see how much their crypto holdings had dropped. A host jokes that he lost more in Robinhood the stock than in the Robinhood app, and the group riffs on whether to distribute shares now, while stressing they are not giving stock advice and that one of them is not selling. This sets up the inflation discussion.

A host lays out the data: November CPI came in at 6.8% year over year, the largest increase since 1982, after 5.4% in September and 6.2% in October, with the run-up beginning in March 2021, the first month CPI rose above 2%. He contrasts who was wrong and who was right. On the wrong side he places Fed chair Jerome Powell, who repeatedly called inflation transitory, Treasury Secretary Yellen, who in her December 2020 confirmation hearing favored more stimulus while rates were near zero, and economist Paul Krugman, who argued in an op-ed not to panic. On the right side he cites Jamie Dimon warning in March that rates would rise, and Larry Summers. The figures and attributions are the host's recap of the record.

He adds that the public, and especially Gen Z, was ahead of this, citing a poll where 77% of Americans were somewhat or very concerned about inflation in March, with the 18-to-24 group most concerned at 52%. These poll numbers are presented as cited data, not independently verified.

Sacks argues inflation is clearly not transitory, having climbed from about 5.1% over the summer to 6.2% and now 6.8%, apparently heading to 7%, while the administration has not adjusted course. Instead, he says, they now speciously claim that Build Back Better, conceived in a deflationary moment, will fight inflation, changing the argument rather than the legislative priority. He points to a same-day CBO report finding the bill would cost about $5 trillion and add some $3 trillion to the deficit over ten years if its programs are not sunset, versus the roughly $1.9 trillion headline. The cost figures are attributed to the CBO report the host cites.