Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more

The episode opens with a staged game: one host offers money to a charity of the answerer's choice for every correct answer given in real time, with no stalling. The first question asks for the names and birthdays of a guest host's children. The answers come out haltingly, with the dates fixed only after some prompting, and the joking payout is quickly negotiated down. A quip about a presidential ticket gets the reply that the money was meant for charity.

After the welcome, the hosts trade pet stories. One has adopted a three-year-old dog that turned out to have a parasite and is being treated; another describes a puppy that looked calm for a week and then began destroying the house; a third recounts a chaotic bedtime involving a nine-month-old bulldog and a child's bruise. They settle on the view that dogs plus kids is chaos, but the good kind, and one host adds that kids and dogs are the rare things that are underrated rather than overrated.

The host driving the topic starts with COVID, which he says touches the economy and personal freedoms. He cites New York Times and Google figures: U.S. cases had fallen to roughly a 12,000-per-day average, deaths were flat for a month at a seven-day average of 248, and cases have since risen to about 62,000 in a day with a seven-day average near 40,000. He notes that deaths typically trail cases by around ten days and asks what happens if cases reach 100,000 or 200,000 a day.

Friedberg expects deaths to climb, mostly among the unvaccinated, because a more infectious variant is spreading widely. He mentions that California's governor had said restrictions such as mask mandates were on the table, and describes a market that reacted on Monday and recovered by Tuesday. In his reading, the conventional wisdom is that not enough people will die to push leaders into economy-damaging restrictions, so the aim becomes what he calls a golden line between the economy and public health. He frames the outcome as ultimately a policy question.

The host asks whether this is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated", a catchphrase he says is becoming a meme, and what should be done about closings or mandates. Sacks says public policy should be separated from private behavior. He says he had thought the virus was beaten a few weeks earlier, that the data now say otherwise, and that commenters who accuse him of being "blue pilled" miss the difference between acknowledging events and debating policy.

His argument is that vaccines now remove the worst risks for most people and that much more is known about what works. In his view lockdowns do not work, and he claims that comparing what states did last year shows no difference. Asked whether this is certain, he says yes: planners overlook that private citizens adjust their behavior in both directions. He says at-risk people in Florida took strong precautions without mandates, while California's severe lockdowns had pages of exceptions and were poorly observed. These are his own characterizations rather than data presented on the show.

He doubts that mask mandates work, since reluctant people comply halfheartedly, and proposes recommendations only, leaving citizens to decide. Describing himself as pro-vaccine, he says he is done spending effort persuading people on the show who do not want a shot. A related question follows about doses not reaching the developing world, where they are desperately wanted.

Asked whether he agrees that citizens should decide for themselves, Chamath says he is of two minds. He argues that because Delta is so transmissible, and because spread gives the virus room to mutate, public health should take priority over individual rights in this narrow case. He accepts that people will lose some freedoms, for example by having to show a vaccine card, and he says it would be unnecessary if everyone were vaccinated.

His reasoning is probabilistic: the longer the virus circulates among the unvaccinated, the greater the chance of a variant that overcomes current vaccines, kills large numbers including vaccinated people and shuts the economy down. He says he resents bearing that risk because of people who, in his words, are not acting for medical or religious reasons but are just watching Fox News. This is his opinion and the probability he describes is not quantified.

Another host agrees there is risk from the unvaccinated at home but says unvaccinated people everywhere are a potential petri dish. He says the Delta variant came from India and, he thinks, Lambda from Peru, and argues that unused U.S. doses at risk of expiring should be shipped to wherever people are ready to be vaccinated. He cites a recent tweet about large stockpiles going to waste, which was not checked on air.

The moderating host puts three questions: should public school teachers be forced to be vaccinated, should a vaccine card be required for planes, buses and long-haul trains, and should one be required for sporting events or concerts. One host answers that anyone who wants to join a public construct, use a public resource or provide a publicly funded good must accept the broader public's rights over individual ones, and otherwise can use a charter school, watch a concert from home, drive or take an Uber.

The speaker who replies draws a line between public and private requirements, saying he does not like giving government the power to forcibly stick a needle in someone's arm. He accepts that a privately owned stadium or team can set its own rules for employees and customers, and agrees that airlines, as a limited set of operators, can set conditions for boarding, though they cannot force anyone to be vaccinated.

On teachers, one host says the earlier fight with teachers' unions was about getting to the front of the vaccine line, which is no longer an issue, so he does not see a serious problem. He suggests that requiring children to be vaccinated would be the real policy question. Pressed for a yes or no, another host says no, and warns about the precedent: if someone has a personal choice not to be vaccinated, does that mean they lose a public-service job?