Ryan Petersen: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked

Episode 158 opens with jokes about governance. Chamath's title is said to have been upgraded from dictator to chairman, and one host explains it as a way to stop him being called dictator, though he stays "chairman dictator." Another host is nicknamed "the king of beep" because his current project cannot be named on air, and a holiday-party recap centers on a photographed group hug.

A host says that holding the hug for two minutes releases oxytocin and calls it therapy, a claim offered without support. The segment adds nothing to the episode's substance, but it shows the show's tone before the agenda starts.

Calacanis introduces the first topic: Houthi drone and missile attacks on commercial ships, which the group calls revenge for Israel's Gaza campaign. The Houthis say they will stop only once Israel lets food and medicine into Gaza. Critics, he adds, see a power play for legitimacy, and the UK, Canada and France are reportedly preparing naval vessels. All five of the largest shipping groups have paused Red Sea transits.

Sacks declines to answer and "phones a friend," Flexport's Ryan Peterson. Peterson says roughly 30% of ocean container traffic uses the Suez and Red Sea, mostly Asia to Europe. Rerouting around southern Africa lengthens the trip by 20 to 25%.

in a network business, a longer journey means less capacity

Calacanis adds that about 12% of global oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas pass through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, figures he states from his own understanding. Peterson says insurers will not cover ships sailing into missile fire, which keeps them away.

Peterson compares this with COVID, when capacity fell about 20% but demand rose 20% and prices rose roughly tenfold. This time demand has not risen, so ocean freight from Asia to Europe is about three times its price a month or two ago. He argues the effect should not be overread.

the Suez Canal is too valuable, in my opinion, too valuable to civilization to the modern world

Sacks disputes the optimism. He describes the Houthis as a Shia group that rose in Yemen in 2014, controls much of the country without international recognition, and is Iran-sponsored but possibly not Iran-controlled. He says they have fired on and mined shipping, that Russia's ships still pass, and that their claim to target only Israel-linked ships is untrue.

He doubts a US-led operation would end it. The Houthis survived the Saudi-backed war that began in 2015, and a US war in Yemen would open another front. He also cites almost 80 attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq by Iran-sponsored Shia militias, and calls the region a powder keg.