WW3 risk, War with Iran?, 4.9% GDP, startup failures growing, new Speaker & more

Jason Calacanis opens with the Twitter Space Sacks hosted with Vivek and Elon on preventing World War III. Sacks says Vivek proposed it, and that Elon wanted it because world leaders tell him the risk of a major war is higher than they have ever seen.

Sacks relays Elon's central position: the Ukraine war should end, because a US-linked war there, a possible Middle East war, and Russian troops in Syria create many routes to escalation. His evidence is the counteroffensive that began on June 4th or 5th. Citing a New York Times map, he says Ukraine has retaken no meaningful territory and Russia has gained on net.

Jason objects that Ukraine did defend itself against invasion. Sacks sets 2022 aside as open to interpretation and judges only this year, arguing that fighting on achieves nothing but to "kill the flower of Ukrainian youth", since Russia has roughly five times the population. His conclusion is that the Twitter Space reached a consensus to normalize relations with Russia, because a proxy war is too dangerous while the Middle East is unsettled.

Sacks says one theory for the delay is that the US is moving air defense batteries to Middle East bases. He cites reporting that Washington asked Israel to wait, while Netanyahu says Israel will go in regardless.

In his first scenario, the operation succeeds and US threats deter Hezbollah and Iran. In the second, guerrilla fighting proves harder than expected, casualties and protests mount, and a ceasefire comes in a couple of months. In the third, Hezbollah opens a northern front, the West Bank erupts, and Iran joins, either to defend Hezbollah or because figures like Lindsey Graham are, in Sacks's words, already calling for war.

Jason notes that Graham was warning Iran off. Sacks reads the warning as meaning Iran will be blamed if Hezbollah joins, and claims Graham is eager to invade. He links this to a long neoconservative wish to confront Iran, recalling that in 2003 the Bush administration said "we're gonna be greeted as liberators".

Sacks then turns to the Wall Street Journal. He says its early story that Iran directed October 7 was disputed by Israeli and Washington officials, and its latest claims 500 militants were trained by Iran. He argues the paper reflects its owners and sources.