URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape

Robert Pape opens with a stark assessment: in his view, Iran is stronger than before the war, while the risk of a global economic crisis is rising. He says he has spent 20 years modeling bombing campaigns against Iran and advised successive White Houses from 2001 to 2024. He places the current conflict at what he calls the third stage of an escalation scenario and estimates that the chance of a limited US ground operation is approaching 70%. These are Pape's forecasts, not outcomes established by the conversation.

Pape describes an escalation ladder that begins with strikes on leadership, followed by Iranian retaliation and US bombing and blockade. He argues that the conflict reached a new stage when Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz, creating a choice between accepting a shift in regional power or trying to retake the strait by force. He says the US temporarily offset the economic shock through other oil routes and strategic reserves, but believes that buffer is running down. The model is useful for understanding his reasoning, though the interview does not independently verify its assumptions or the projected timeline.

Pape interprets a proposed memorandum of understanding as a strategic document, not simply a commercial bargain. He argues that Vice President JD Vance treated reopening the strait as a transaction, while Iran's priority was to secure lasting control and regional influence. In Pape's account, control of Hormuz could provide not just revenue but military leverage and influence over neighboring states. He also says alternative pipelines through Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, or Syria could reduce the value of controlling the strait alone, which would make a wider sphere of influence more valuable to Iran.

Pape points to provisions he says would leave Iran in charge of arranging shipping through Hormuz and allow it to set future fees after a 60-day no-charge period. He says the document contains 14 points, was published in identical form by the Iranian government and the White House, and therefore was the final version rather than an earlier leak. He describes three provisions as especially consequential, including control of the strait and the use of frozen Iranian assets. The host presses him on why the war resumed after Iran signed; Pape's answer is that the US then undermined the agreement. This is his reading of the document and events, presented in the interview rather than independently adjudicated there.