Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race

The conversation opens by introducing Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania with a list of claims about his record. The introduction credits him with "record sign setting popularity" and "60% approval at least," and describes him as a moderate focused on "GSD," tough on crime, pro data center, and holding "a nuanced take on Israel." On Medicaid fraud, the introduction relies on the host's own notes: "Ranked number one according to my notes on charging Medicaid fraud." Later in the conversation this ranking is given more cautiously.

Next comes some light banter over old basketball footage, which is dated to "1990, I think." One participant regrets that players no longer shoot mid-range jumpers. The Philadelphia and New York Knicks fan rivalry comes up, along with a mutual friend, Dave, described as one of the team's co-owners, who encouraged the appearance. That encouragement is recalled as: "They have thoughtful conversations and anxious to have one with you."

The first substantive question sets Pennsylvania against other Democratic-led states. The interviewer calls California's record under Gavin Newsom "variable" and says they left California for Texas because it seemed "a bit of a disaster." They contrast Pennsylvania with New York, New Jersey and Boston, which they describe as losing business leaders, and ask whether Pennsylvania is an exception to the idea that Democrats are not delivering for business.

The answer declines to make the comparison ("I'm not in comparison with Gavin or any other Democratic governor") and lists Pennsylvania's results instead. It claims the state has created more jobs than all but two states and has cut taxes seven times, for small businesses, for families paying for childcare, for seniors and for working Pennsylvanians. It says permitting has moved from bottom five in the country to what the speaker thinks is "easily top five in terms of speed," backed by a money-back guarantee on permits.

The permit figures come with a "fun fact": 40,000,000 permits issued during the governorship (the figure as transcribed) and only five refunds, which the speaker presents as meaning only five permits were late. Further claims follow: Pennsylvania is "the only growing economy in the Northeastern Part Of The United States," funding for vo-tech and apprenticeship programs has tripled, and unemployment has stayed below the national rate for thirty-two months. None of these figures is sourced or checked independently in the conversation.

The answer ends with a statement of priorities: a quality education for every child, a safe street to walk down, and a job in a community they love. These are tied to the "GSD" mantra and the claim of "putting a lot of points on the board every single day."

The interviewer asks why permitting is so dysfunctional in California. Speaking as a technology investor, they describe "red tape after red tape," NIMBYism that blocks building, and rising housing costs that keep nannies, teachers and firefighters from affording homes in the communities they serve. They ask how Pennsylvania fixed this and why other states have not.

The reply again avoids commenting on California and describes Pennsylvania's approach in steps. The first is recognizing that permits matter for economic development. Moving "at the speed of business" gives a CEO predictability, for example knowing a business will open "in six months instead of three years." The second is a change of attitude toward getting "to yes" while still protecting "the environment and public health and public safety." The third is the money-back guarantee, which the speaker says "holds the bureaucracy accountable."

The speaker separates changes made administratively through executive orders from changes passed into law with the legislature, and admits "it hasn't always been easy." The political setting is a divided legislature: a Senate led by Republicans "by just two seats" and a House led by Democrats "by just one seat." The speaker says they were for a while the only governor with a divided legislature and that there is now one other. Permitting reform is offered as an area where both parties came together, and the evidence given is that "businesses are coming here and the economy is growing."

A small-scale example follows: barber licensing, which the speaker counts as a permit. It used to take twenty days and is now issued the same day. The speaker's estimate draws on their own barber, who cuts about 10 heads a day at $20 each, or $200 a day, over twenty days. This is presented as "thousands of dollars" put into a barber's pocket. The speaker admits the point "may sound nerdy" and "may sound wonky," but argues it applies equally to large buildings and to local barbers.

And the quicker you are, the more jobs you create and the more money you put in people's pockets.

The interviewer turns permitting into a question of philosophy: whether government works "for themselves and their timelines or for the people who put them in office." They say that in New York and California there is "no sense of urgency" and a belief that the problem is "intractable." They describe how repeated bad encounters, at airports, at the driver's license office, or with haircutting certificates, become "oppressive over time."