Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!

The hosts open with jokes about a drunken dinner and towels, then Jason announces the All-In holiday spectacular on December 7 at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco and an election-night livestream on Tuesday, November 5. He says the channel is near 700,000 subscribers and that Phil Hellmuth, banned by Chamath for life, may return for a second chance on a very short leash.

On the party, a host says they will spend $1 million, about $300,000 of it founder money, and will probably lose money, but it is meant to be fun. Another host says one of his startups, Athena, bought a bundle of VIP tickets for top customers and employees, and suggests other startups do the same.

Jason reports that real GDP grew 2.8% in the third quarter, 30 basis points below the 3.1% Dow Jones consensus, while Japan, Australia, Germany and Canada grew between 0.2% and 0.7%. He adds inflation at 2.4%, unemployment at 4.1%, the 10-year Treasury at 4.3% and stocks at record highs, then turns to $35 trillion of federal debt, about $1 trillion in annual interest and roughly 3 million federal employees.

Friedberg reads the 10-year yield, up from about 3.5% in mid-September, as the market saying rate cuts are not warranted and expecting higher rates for longer. He says model-based estimates put both candidates' fiscal plans at trillions in added debt, though neither would execute everything.

Chamath asks whether the economy is understood accurately. Backing out government consumption from GDP, he argues, shows that Biden-era gains over two and a half years came largely from government spending, with private industry on the sidelines. He cites earnings calls about softening demand and Dropbox laying off 20% of staff as support for his "low-key recession" view, and concludes Elon's cuts would be meaningful and necessary.

When Jason shows federal net outlays rising from the high teens to the twenties as a share of GDP, Chamath says that chart excludes items such as QE. He states that 85% of the quarter's GDP was induced by government, so true private growth is 2.8% multiplied by 0.15. This is his own calculation, and the segments do not show its source.