Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey

After announcements about a new website and a coming episode 200, the hosts turn to hurricane season. Milton made landfall on Florida's west coast on Wednesday evening and was downgraded to a category 1. About 6 million people in 15 counties were ordered to evacuate, the Tropicana Field roof was torn off, and four deaths were reported with more expected.

Two weeks earlier Helene swept six southern states, killing over 220 people and devastating western North Carolina. AccuWeather's estimate of total economic damage is $145 billion to $160 billion, and Moody's puts property damage alone at up to $26 billion.

Friedberg says Atlantic sea surface temperatures were at record highs. Warm water feeds moist air into a storm, which draws in more, so Helene rose from category 2 to 4 or 5 in about 48 hours. He adds that oceans absorb 90% of the sun's energy.

He cites an unnamed science paper, described as appearing in Nature, saying that cutting sulfur dioxide from cargo-ship fuel, which began around 2020 to 2021 to reduce acid rain, removed cloud-forming emissions that reflect sunlight. On the authors' estimate, he says, the rate of ocean warming will double in the 2020s. He also notes that some people are speculating about this effect, which signals it is not settled.

Chamath asks whether this is just mean reversion after decades of dirty fuel. Friedberg agrees the shipping emissions had been an artificial cooling effect on a warming atmosphere. His conclusion is that the system has many interacting factors and requires care.

Friedberg explains that storms weaken after landfall because the hot ocean stops feeding them. He attributes the extreme rain in North Carolina to Helene hitting cold mountains, with some people measuring up to 30 inches in a couple of hours.