Food shortage, China's grand plan, inflation, French election plus an All-In Summit preview

The hosts frame this as the second half of a two-part episode, numbered 76.5, their first ever two-parter. They note that part one covered Elon and Twitter in detail, and that this part turns to the global food crisis, China's plan to stockpile food, geopolitics such as the French election and Germany, and a preview of the All-In Summit.

After the usual cold-open banter and the introductions read over the theme, a host sets up the first topic: there is still a war raging, but he wants an update from Friedberg on the food crisis that Friedberg had predicted early. He notes fertilizer prices are still climbing and that there has been food-related unrest in China, which he flags as a separate issue, along with Sri Lanka, and asks when food riots will actually start.

Asked whether China's food unrest is connected, Friedberg treats it as a separate, localized supply-chain problem tied to the lockdowns rather than part of the broader crisis.

He then returns to the global picture. He points to a USDA planting report showing reduced corn acreage in the US, and says the same pattern is appearing worldwide: acres coming out of production and less fertilizer being used, which means less food. He calls it a slow-motion event, like a Titanic heading into an iceberg, and expects it to continue for roughly 9 to 18 months. The pressing question, he says, is how to bridge the gap in calories for nations that depend almost entirely on imports.

Friedberg lays out his framing of global food reserves. He says the world runs on roughly a 90-day supply, meaning about 25% of the world's calories are in storage, but that this is uneven. By his account, countries such as Tunisia, Somalia and Ethiopia hold close to zero, the United States holds roughly 30 to 40% of its annual calories, and China is an outlier that has stockpiled food for years and now holds about 150% of its annual consumption, enough to feed its population for about a year and a half if production and imports stopped. These are his figures, presented without external verification here.

He adds that Egypt has about four months of food and is running down its stores because it cannot get supplies out of the Black Sea. From this he argues China will be one of the few parties able to bridge the calorie gap over the coming year.

Friedberg predicts that China will use its surplus to maximize leverage, accumulating power over the next year through deals struck to help other countries close the calorie gap. He points to the Horn of Africa, where he says China has pushed for a military base and influence over local media, and argues the emerging crises in places such as Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti will be resolved by China, giving it influence, a military presence and a more permanent foothold. He extends the same logic to Sri Lanka, parts of Southeast Asia, and Western and Northern Africa, saying bodies such as the UN and the World Food Programme will do what they can but that China is the one country able to show up. This is his prediction, not a verified outcome.