Cathie Wood on How AI Can Double GDP, Bull Case for Bitcoin $1M, Elon's Trillion-Dollar Pay Package
Guests: Cathie Wood
In-depth read · Key ideas, reasoning, and examples, organized by topic.
§01An opening case: innovation eras and the long run of GDP growth
The segment opens with an introductory clip describing the ARK Innovation ETF as trading near a 52-week high. The clip says the fund returned 148 percent, returned more than 170 percent the previous year, and had $17 billion under management. In the clip, the conviction behind the strategy is tied to daily original research aimed at finding "these companies that are going to transform the world." The guest is then welcomed, and the talk is framed around how the world will change over the next five to 10 years, how fast real GDP could grow, and how low inflation could fall.
The presentation starts with a timeline of innovation going back to the 1700s. It is credited to "our chief futurist, Brett Winton," working with academics, and it is meant to show how innovation affects productivity. Two earlier great eras are identified. The first came in the late 1800s and early 1900s, driven by the telephone, electricity and the internal combustion engine. According to the presentation, real GDP growth had averaged about 0.6% per year for the 400 years before that era. Growth then rose to about 3% for the following 125 years, which the presentation calls a five-fold increase.
The core claim is that today is the first time in 125 years that multiple innovation platforms are developing at once. The presentation counts five platforms involving 15 technologies, where the earlier era had three major platforms. It draws a research conclusion from this: because technology now runs through every sector and blurs the lines between them, analysis should be organized differently.
It's not going to be by sector or industry anymore. It is going to be by technology
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